[NL2-NL10] NL10 6 max AA vs flop push

    • kiwicoach
      kiwicoach
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.07.2013 Posts: 220
      Hi guys

      This is the first hand I've posted.. Thanks in advance for your insights.

      Villian has VPIP 26 PFR 18 (45 hands) and I know he's multitabling. I've raised the last few hands preflop and they haven't gone to showdown so I suspect that my image is loose aggressive at this point. Preflop I open raise for the standard 4BB and get called in 3 places, including BB. This is unusual for this table where most hands have been contested heads up or 3 max, even unraised pots, which makes me think even more strongly that I'm being called here because of my image..

      Flop comes down T high rainbow with a possible straight draw. It's checked to me and I bet the pot to thin the field/make draws pay etc and I'm worried if CO calls then it encourages the others to call. So I'm aiming to take pot down right here... First of all, is this bet size/ logic correct? Why/why not?

      2 folds and BB pushes all in, he has me covered and its 66BB back to me to call to win 115BB (I think I've calculated that right..) therefore I would need equity of 57% to make this call +EV.

      I reckon BB's range for this call preflop is 22+, 45s+, 75s+ AT+, KJ+, Axs. We can probably remove QQ+, AK+ due to he would have 3 bet preflop with these hands vs 3 opponents, and maybe even TT, JJ as well.

      So what is the optimal play here?

      OnGame - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: 110.2 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 17.65, Hands: 45)
      Hero (UTG): 86.4 BB
      MP: 231.4 BB (VPIP: 58.33, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 37)
      CO: 42.7 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 26)
      BTN: 103.9 BB (VPIP: 25.58, PFR: 20.93, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
      SB: 96 BB (VPIP: 25.71, PFR: 22.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:club: A:spade:

      Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, CO calls 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB, fold, BB calls 3 BB

      Flop: (16.5 BB, 4 players) 6:spade: T:heart: 5:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets 16.5 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 106.2 BB and is all-in, Hero ???
  • 6 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      Welcome to the hand evaluation forum.

      I like preflop.

      On the flop cbetting is good but I would bet around 11bb.

      Once he shoves here I would fold. He shows quite a lot of strength by shoving into us after we potted against three opponents so I believe we are behind here.

      PS: What formula did you use in order to calculate that you need 57% equity?

      If you have any further questions about the hand or anything else feel free to ask and press the "Advice the judge to have a second look" button so I can come back and review it.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • kiwicoach
      kiwicoach
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.07.2013 Posts: 220
      Hi Plamen

      Thanks for your reply. I calculated the required equity as follows:

      Pot is 16.5BB on the flop. I bet 16.5 BB and Villian shoves which sees my 16.5BB and raises me all in, which is another 66BB. So Pot size is 115BB and its 66BB back to me. 66/115 = 57%. Is that correct?

      Thanks again

      Alan
    • TJtheTJ
      TJtheTJ
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,583
      Hey kiwicoach,

      Welcome to the forum!

      You are almost right. However, in order to calculate the equity you need to call you need to add the amount you need to call to the pot size as well.

      So let's say the pot is 100 and someone bets 50. Now you need 50 / (150 + 50) = 25% equity, rather than the 33% you might expect.

      Does this help you with calculating it for your own hand?

      Also, I would strongly recommend using the auto top up function in your poker client to automatically buy back up to 100bb!

      Kind regards,
      Tino
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Agree with Tino here.

      In order to calculate the equity properly, we need to divide by the pot size after our call, so in this spot we should be calling 66bb for 181.5bb final pot.

      Also, do pop up your stack to 100bb before the beginning of every hand.
    • kiwicoach
      kiwicoach
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.07.2013 Posts: 220
      Thanks for the tips :)

      So my required equity to make a call here is actually 66/181 or 36%, 1:2.8.

      Hands in his shove range I'm behind: 55, 66, TT, 56s (11 combinations)

      Hands in his shove range I'm ahead of: JJ (3 combinations), maybe 78s as a semi-bluff. Is this correct given his stats or am I way off here and he wouldn't shove with these hands given the strength I've shown in the hand?

      I get Plamens point that he's shoving against a strong flop bet into 4 opponents and therefore the optimal play is to fold, but I'd like to understand the logic/stats behind this.

      Thanks
      Alan
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      I don't really think he shoves 78 here and JJ is possible, but not too much so lets give him half of the combos.

      So against a range of 55/66/TT and three combos of JJ we do have around 29.5% equity which are not enough to call and I'm not even sure if he stacks off with JJ here.