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[NL2-NL10] Nl5 Kj 090813

    • MarliesB
      Joined: 13.04.2013 Posts: 685

      villain might be fishy.
      On my flop raise: did I calculate this correctly?
      There's 62.4 BB in the pot. Villain has 58.4 left.
      If I shove, it'll cost me 58.4 BB to possibly win 120.8
      My equity needed: 58.4 / (120.8 + 58.4) = 33%
      A flushdraw = 9 outs times four is about 36% (okay, this is not nutflushdraw but let's discard that for a second)
      So even without fold equity against his range, I can shove this?

      PokerStars - €0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: 98.6 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
      UTG: 141.4 BB (VPIP: 63.64, PFR: 45.45, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 24)
      CO: 67.4 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 3)
      Hero (BTN): 103.4 BB
      SB: 52.8 BB (VPIP: 2.86, PFR: 2.94, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K:heart: J:heart:

      UTG raises to 8 BB, CO calls 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB, fold, fold

      Flop: (25.4 BB, 3 players) 9:heart: A:diamond: 4:heart:
      UTG bets 37 BB, fold, Hero raises to 95.4 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 58.4 BB

      Turn: (216.2 BB, 2 players) 4:club:

      River: (216.2 BB, 2 players) 4:spade:

      UTG shows T:diamond: T:club: (Full House, Fours full of Tens) (Pre 54%, Flop 46%, Turn 68%)
      Hero shows K:heart: J:heart: (Three of a Kind, Fours) (Pre 46%, Flop 54%, Turn 32%)
      UTG wins 207.2 BB
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795

      You calculated it wrong. You did not risk 58.4bb more. You risked 95.4BB to win 216.2BB.

      Without fold equity, your pot odds are 44.1% here and that's definitely not enough, assuming that villain's range is mostly AX hands or better.

      Preflop play is questionable. Have you seen him raise 8BB all the time? If this is a one-off raise size, then you should fold here.