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[NL20-NL50] AJ barrels on T82r MPvBB

    • dozeer
      dozeer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      Full Tilt - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      UTG: 94.44 BB
      Hero (MP): 101.8 BB
      CO: 73.92 BB
      BTN: 252 BB
      SB: 40.84 BB
      BB: 332.48 BB

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:diamond: J:spade:

      fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 8:heart: T:club: 2:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets 4.48 BB, BB calls 4.48 BB

      Turn: (15.36 BB, 2 players) 5:spade:
      BB checks

      Hi,

      BB is unknown.

      Do you like firing 2 barrels on this runout with our hand?

      This is what I think about his turn play:

      continues better:
      TP+ 28
      99 3
      8x 4
      stubborn overs AQ, AK 4

      = 37

      continues worse:
      97s, J9s 7
      stubborn overs QJs 2

      folds better:
      99 3
      66-77 12
      AQ 3
      AJ 1 (chop adj)
      8x 4

      = 23

      + I have ~20% equity vs his turn continuation range.


      .. So it looks to me like a profitable 2 barrel spot ?
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi dozeer,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: The turn is a small card so unless villain floats BB vs MP light (in an unknown spot) I can't really see him having many AJ and even AQ hands.

      I agree that some pairs can be there but again MP vs SB he may fold 66-77 already on the flop.

      So in this spot I feel that you may need to go 3-streets to get him to fold a decent part of his range. After all he has nothing really strong except some sets and we can have a bit more.
    • dozeer
      dozeer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      hmmm I agree he might fold some 66 on the flop, but I think average 25NL player is floating flop with some overcards like AQ w/ BDFD type hands, and AK which he calls pre.

      re the 3rd barrel - I guess we need him to fold some Tx hands to show a profit there - what sizing would you recommend ?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by dozeer
      hmmm I agree he might fold some 66 on the flop, but I think average 25NL player is floating flop with some overcards like AQ w/ BDFD type hands, and AK which he calls pre.

      re the 3rd barrel - I guess we need him to fold some Tx hands to show a profit there - what sizing would you recommend ?
      I'd try to make it as plausible as possible so around 2/3.

      Keep in mind that you are MP vs BB so unless the guy is not a thinking player (at all) you shouldn't get floated so light. If you were CO or BTN vs BB I agree they could have that.