SSS chart question

    • phullhand
      phullhand
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.07.2008 Posts: 168
      Hi,

      please guys, don't get me wrong, I have this doubt more as a desire to learn more the SSS chart than to question their validity (since I'm doing a good job following his rules!).

      When I run PS Equilator and fill the UTG field with AKo and all the rest with random it shows me that AKo have ~17% equity. If I change the UTG field to TT and leave all the rest with random it shows me the same ~17% equity.

      So the question is: why I just play TT from middle position and AKo I can play on the early position if both have the same equity??

      PS: I'm using Monte Carlo algorithm (even doesn't knowing the difference between them :P )


      tnx! best regards
  • 6 replies
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Hey phullhand,

      the point is, that the probability that someone has a better hand behind of you is big when you raise from an early position. It doesn't depend on the equity against random hands but on the equity against certain hand ranges. Ak dominates a lot of hands and at least flips against most pairs. TT on the other hand is more often dominated by a better pair and flips against a wide range of high card hands. Therefore AK plays better against certain ranges. I hope this helps you.

      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar
    • phullhand
      phullhand
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.07.2008 Posts: 168
      Hi TribunCaesar,

      first of all, thank you for your reply!

      But I'm still confused. When you said that that it depends not against a random but a certain hand ranges I try another scenario on PS Equilator:

      UTG - AKo
      UTG+1 - random
      UTG+2 - random
      MP1 - random
      MP2 - random
      MP3 - random
      CO - 88+, AJs+, AQo+ (I think it should be a tight player, the worst scenario)
      BU - random
      SB - random
      BB - random

      Then I ran the equilator and got ~13% equity to UTG and ~15% to CO.
      But (here I got surprised) if you change UTG to TT you will have ~15% to UTG and ~17% to CO.

      What am I missing on this math?! :)

      Best regards.
    • Chiller3k
      Chiller3k
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 4,326
      Hi phullhand,

      I don't claim to be a poker professional (especially not in SSS^^)but I think the mistake in your calculation is that the equilator calculates your winning chances when everybody would go all in preflop.
      You have to consider, that most of the times you will play headsup postflop or against 2-3 at worst (everything above is very rare)
      And the hands that will call your preflop raise will most likely contain hands like pocket pairs or weak aces/kings that means if you hit your ace or king your opponent will very often hit it too, with a weaker kicker though, but nevertheless he will most likely call your bets/raises because most of the fishes on the micro/middle limits can't let go of their hands (especially when it's top pair). That's why AK has much implied odds against fishes.
      So let's say we are holding TT now and you have an overpair or maybe even a set, which is pretty good for you since you have a strong made hand. But in this case your opponent will fold his weak aces/kings and most of his pocket pairs. That means your implied odds with TT aren't as good as with AK because if you are holding a made hand the chances that your opponent will hold a hand (that we have beat and) that he wants to see a showdown with is much bigger with AK.
      I don't know if this is totally correct but I'm pretty sure the approach is right.
      But I'm sure Tribun will also leave his comment soon =)

      Best regards,
      Chiller3k
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Well, Chiller is more or less right here. The point is that you dominate so many worse hands with AK that will pay you off, while you do not with TT. When you play TT you will very often see an overcard on the board and you do not know what your tens are worth. You can't play TT for set value due to you short stack, therefore you can just play it for an overpair or let's say as a made hand which is vulnerable. You can't always calculate everything, because it's like chiller said. The Equilator assumes you are all-in against villains range, which is not the case. He will fold a lot of hands if he doesn't hit and you will sometime fold as well. So it's more a logical thing, that AK plays better here.

      I hope this helps.

      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar
    • phullhand
      phullhand
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.07.2008 Posts: 168
      Ok, I see your point guys. But Im still not convinced hehehe sorry.

      I tried to simulate what you guys said, and another surprise to me:

      UTG (Hero) - AKo
      MP1 - random (we dont know him enough)
      CO - 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T4s+, 96s+, 86s+, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J5o+, T7o+, 98o (the donk looser)

      Hero raise 4BB, MP1 call and CO call.

      than the flop comes: Qd 8d 7h

      What you do?

      PS Equilator says:

      UTG(Hero) - ~28%
      MP1 - ~32%
      CO - ~%39 (!!!!! remember, he is the looser guy!!)

      So it's an easy fold!

      But if you change the Hero hand to TT:

      UTG(Hero) - ~45% (!!)
      MP1 - ~23%
      CO - ~%31

      So, in that case (if I was smart enough to do this math in 10 sec :) ) I push all-in!!!

      What you guys think?

      best regards!!!

      UPDATE: when I post this message I saw that I simulated a flop that could helps a straight draw. But even changing the flop to Qd 7h 4d, the results was pretty much the same...
    • SoyCD
      SoyCD
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 6,356
      Hello phullhand,

      This is only one flop though (one which certainly helps TT more than AK). How about an Ace high flop, or a King high flop. Or a flop with 2 overcards to the T (e.g. QJ / KJ / KQ / AJ / AQ / AK)??

      But on the topic of your earlier post - where you calculated pre-flop all-ins. If the cut-off is a tight player his re-raising range against a UTG short-stack raiser needs to be much tighter

      The real problem in my opinion comes from the scenario of you raising pre-flop and then facing action behind you. The range you gave your tight re-raiser needs to be much tighter. Its more like TT+ AKo / AKs plus perhaps AQs and AQ. Against this range AK does fare slightly better than TT - even more so if the opponents tend to throw in stuff like AJ.

      But to get the really good answers to this question I suggest you join Xarry's or another SSS coaches coaching :)

      Best regards,
      SoyCD