[NL2-NL10] nl16- 99

    • gAsheks
      gAsheks
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2012 Posts: 1,580
      Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      UTG: $7.52 (47 bb)
      MP: $17.04 (106.5 bb)
      CO: $24.70 (154.4 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $28.29 (176.8 bb)
      SB: $11.07 (69.2 bb)
      BB: $16 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9 9
      UTG raises to $0.41, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.41, SB folds, BB calls $0.25

      Flop: ($1.31) 9 T K (3 players)
      BB bets $0.80, UTG folds, Hero raises to $2.32, BB raises to $6.88, Hero??

      Popup:

      Want to hear some opinions about flop play?
      I think i have to raise given the board texture, right? Tons of bad action killing cards...
      Once he takes such line what are our options?
  • 6 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Hey G,

      It's a stack off. We are not favourites, I think we are flipping against his range but there's too much money in the pot already plus sometimes he folds vs our shove with some hands like AQhh.

      Whether you should raise here or not is debatable because although the board is coordinated, you don't get called super often by worse because his range is already strong. He prob doesn't get it KTs, doesn't have KTo in his range, doesn't call AK when you raise, does he? One of those spots where your bottom set is not THAT strong because of how many better made hands are out there and how likely your opponent is to have them.

      Stacking off should still be +EV in the sense that you have enough FE against hands that can suckout by the time you get it in but when you actually turn over your cards, you will not have him crushed that often.

      LE: One more thing to mention here is that if he has set in your spot, he also gets it in regardless of your range so if you get it in behind here, he would do the same, ending up into a money moving spot, not EV changing.
    • gAsheks
      gAsheks
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2012 Posts: 1,580
      Its not like we are flipping when he 3bets. I dont see any bluff here when he takes such line.

      So calling his donk is okay decision? Once i raise i isolate myself a bit.

      The problem here is that he doesnt have that much of 2p type hands. T9 is only one combo and given that i dont call KT (especially OOP) and this guy is way tighter than me i dont see it in his range that often. The only reason is that we have fish here so this might inspire him to call such hands.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      OMG, I just noticed he leads. :facepalm: Sorry about that, I though he cbets.

      Given that he calls 3way and leads, it becomes more of a stack off. We do way better because now he has way more combo draws in his range, he has more Kx of spades, he has 2pair more often so then it's a lot easier. Ofc, we don't CRUSH his range but we are OK with stacking off way more than when vs an UTG opener.

      Althouhg this guy is tight, don't forget the odds he gets from BB here vs the raise imo.


      Board: K:heart: T:spade: 9:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    50.66%  50.11%   0.55% { 9h9c }
      UTG+1  49.34%  48.79%   0.55% { TT, KTs, QJs, T9s, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, Js8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, KTo, QJo }


      Vs some UTG we can discount hands like 76s, 78s and J8s but given the odds in BB I think they are very likely in his range. Ofc, even if we take them out we still get close to a flip.
    • gAsheks
      gAsheks
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2012 Posts: 1,580
      Well, if we narrow down his range to like "not the best case scenario" then its not the greatest spot to be in.

      Given the range you are assuming its not the best spot either, because after rake we are slightly losing money i guess.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Originally posted by gAsheks
      Well, if we narrow down his range to like "not the best case scenario" then its not the greatest spot to be in.

      Given the range you are assuming its not the best spot either, because after rake we are slightly losing money i guess.
      We lose more if we fold, because we put in so much money already.. There are some spots where even MaxEV is -EV. I can't present a good example in NLHE but for sure there are quite a few in simplified games such as AKQ game.
    • gAsheks
      gAsheks
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2012 Posts: 1,580
      Thanks for explaining thoughts. Really appreciating. :f_thumbsup: