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[NL20-NL50] AQ 2pair vs wtf raise

    • dozeer
      dozeer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      Microgaming - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      CO: 148.8 BB
      BTN: 143.1 BB
      Hero (SB): 100 BB
      BB: 112.05 BB
      UTG: 177.95 BB
      MP: 28.5 BB

      Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:club: Q:club:

      fold, fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 4 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB

      Flop: (13 BB, 3 players) K:diamond: A:heart: 5:club:
      Hero checks, CO bets 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

      Turn: (22 BB, 3 players) Q:spade:
      Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

      River: (22 BB, 3 players) 5:diamond:
      Hero bets 17 BB, fold, BTN raises to 45 BB

      CO is a fish, BU some random reggish looking player.

      River:

      I guess its a call in theory as I am at the top of my bluff catching range, but can he be bluffing here at least ~27% of the time or is it almost always slowplayed monster?
  • 8 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      hi

      with the fish in the hand, slowplaying would be pretty bad. So I think it's 5X (wouldn't be out of the question on the Flop).

      I'm not going to hero-fold this though, without too many reads. And I think the Flop is a clear raise for value vs the fish and the reg. Reg is obviously weak when he doesn't raise.

      Thanks.
    • dozeer
      dozeer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      right, dunno why I didnt raise the flop, thats def a mistake.

      How big would you raise - pot (19bb), or less?

      thanks
    • ArtisSkirpa
      ArtisSkirpa
      Silver
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 83
      Rasing the flop would be horrible. I wouldn't mind leading in a 3way pot, but you certainly should have no c/r range here.

      Flatting preflop makes no sense, AQs SBvBU is about the easiest 3bet there is. Range considerations aside, there is no way flatting is higher EV than 3betting there.
    • dozeer
      dozeer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      why would you want to raise to chase the fish out of the pot?

      you do realise he bet just 3bb into 13 on the flop ?
    • ArtisSkirpa
      ArtisSkirpa
      Silver
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 83
      Originally posted by dozeer
      why would you want to raise to chase the fish out of the pot?

      you do realise he bet just 3bb into 13 on the flop ?
      My bad, totally misread the action, didn't notice it was the fish donking. In that case, sure raising can be better.

      Not 3betting preflop is still horrible though.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      Originally posted by ArtisSkirpa
      Originally posted by dozeer
      why would you want to raise to chase the fish out of the pot?

      you do realise he bet just 3bb into 13 on the flop ?
      My bad, totally misread the action, didn't notice it was the fish donking. In that case, sure raising can be better.

      Not 3betting preflop is still horrible though.
      value of playing with fish >>> value from worse calling hands from the regs. Fish is gonna make way more mistakes in a single-raised pot and if the reg decides to 4-bet, you aren't exactly gonna be thrilled.
    • ArtisSkirpa
      ArtisSkirpa
      Silver
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 83
      Originally posted by mbml
      Originally posted by ArtisSkirpa
      Originally posted by dozeer
      why would you want to raise to chase the fish out of the pot?

      you do realise he bet just 3bb into 13 on the flop ?
      My bad, totally misread the action, didn't notice it was the fish donking. In that case, sure raising can be better.

      Not 3betting preflop is still horrible though.
      value of playing with fish >>> value from worse calling hands from the regs. Fish is gonna make way more mistakes in a single-raised pot and if the reg decides to 4-bet, you aren't exactly gonna be thrilled.
      How do you define "value" here? What makes you think that it's better to flat OOP getting bad odds, not even having relative position. It still might be plus EV, but 3betting has got to be higher. Wouldn't you agree that there is absolutely no reason to have a SB flatting range vs a 4x open?

      How are you going to get this value from the fish exactly? You still miss most of the time, it's difficult to figure out what you should be doing when you do flop something (because reasonable players don't have a flatting range in that spot). And, the most important thing, it's really difficult to win pots when you miss in that spot.

      Is this "value of playing vs a fish" hoping for that dream scenario, where the fish has A3, you both hit TP, the reg bricks, and you somehow get two bets out of the fish?

      Also, why are you so sure that the fish doesn't coldcall a 3bet? Why do you think we should be worried about the reg 4betting? We really only are thrilled to get 4bet when we have AA or KK, should that mean that we never 3bet anything less than that? Obviously AQs is not going to be in your folding range vs 4bets in those positions. Not to mention that people don't really fold to 3bets, mostly defend by calling a pretty wide range and AQs kind of happens to be really good.

      I would really, really like to know, what this "value of playing vs the fish" is all about in a spot that is incredibly difficult to play (3 way pot oop), and why we would choose that option instead of making the play that is clearly higher EV (havent done the math, but has to be, considering how much more often you win when you 3bet) and clearly better for our range and falls within our overall gameplan.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,787
      Good players flat here with all their monsters so your range is not ucapped here. U can always lead flop when u do hit and also wsometimes w backdoor equity. Reg is also forced to play very honest on many flop textures w threeway dynamic and fish in hand.