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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 T9s flop spot - vs a raise on a wet low board

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (MP): $26.15 (104.6 bb)
      CO: $13.88 (55.5 bb)
      BTN: $27.15 (108.6 bb)
      SB: $49.84 (199.4 bb)
      BB: $25.10 (100.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with T 9
      Hero raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, 3 folds

      Flop: ($2.05) 6 9 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.50, CO raises to $3.25, Hero raises to $25.30, CO calls $9.78

      -----

      CO was 34/12/1 over 183
      FtCB: F - 36, T - 33
      AG% - 35 (26/46/47)
      Notes:
      Minraise = nuts

      FLOP
      I haven't noticed the note I have about his minraise being the nuts.
      2 questions:

      -----

      1. Assuming there's no note - what hands do I 3bet shove in this spot (I figured it should be AA or better)?

      I think bad players overvalue overpairs, so I wouldn't expect him to raise with anything worse than TT (like A9).

      So T:c9 is dead vs all the value hands villain can have.
      Board: 9s6d5s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP3 20.10% 20.04% 0.06% { Tc9c }
      CO 79.90% 79.84% 0.06% { 99+, 66-55, 87s, 65s, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }

      TT does even worse (it has less outs vs overpairs).
      Board: 9s6d5s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP3 18.00% 16.99% 1.01% { TT }
      CO 82.00% 80.99% 1.01% { 99+, 66-55, 87s, 65s, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }

      Even KK-QQ do not fair well vs villain's range.
      Board: 9s6d5s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP3 42.90% 41.33% 1.58% { KK-QQ }
      CO 57.10% 55.52% 1.58% { 99+, 66-55, 87s, 65s, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }

      So only AA or better is a thin value 3bet.
      Board: 9s6d5s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP3 59.18% 57.53% 1.66% { AA }
      CO 40.82% 39.16% 1.66% { 99+, 66-55, 87s, 65s, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }

      -----

      2. Assuming I saw the note - how does it change the way I play my made hands? (I would obviously call with all draws given the odds and lack of FE). Assuming my reasoning is correct the only clear value 3bet is 55 or better. So in majority of cases I would just call vs this villain with my strongest part of the range.

      It's likely now that he doesn't raise with JJ-TT or with naked flush draws so AA is not good enough to 3bet for value anymore.
      Board: 9s6d5s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP3 46.98% 44.74% 2.24% { AA }
      CO 53.02% 50.78% 2.24% { QQ+, 99, 66-55, 87s, 65s, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }

      65s is closer to a value shove.
      Board: 9s6d5s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP3 50.89% 48.52% 2.37% { 65s }
      CO 49.11% 46.75% 2.37% { QQ+, 99, 66-55, 87s, 65s, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }

      However, even the weakest set is an easy value shove.
      Board: 9s6d5s
      Equity Win Tie
      MP3 63.60% 62.89% 0.70% { 55 }
      CO 36.40% 35.70% 0.70% { QQ+, 99, 66-55, 87s, 65s, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795
      Hi

      Don't understand your comment about him not raising A9. If bad players overvalue one-pair hands, they will raise any top pair hand here, and any overpair.

      Anyway I don't necessarily think that that's overplay, given that stacks are shorter and both of you should indeed be stacking off with wider ranges because the stack:pot ratio is lower.

      1. I don't agree with your assumptions. I think he will raise a ton of K9 A9 Q9 type of hands, so there's no way that TT < T9. TT is a snap 3bet shove here for sure.

      2. T9 is kind of close here, I think it's never going to be too wrong to stack off here given how shallow the stack sizes are. And I think raise flop % is more useful than aggression %.