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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 AJo turn spot - bluff raising vs a nit

    • Dawidas888
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $25.25 (101 bb)
      SB: $32.57 (130.3 bb)
      BB: $30.61 (122.4 bb)
      UTG: $25.60 (102.4 bb)
      MP: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
      CO: $26.48 (105.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with A J
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) T Q 4 (2 players)
      CO bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40

      Turn: ($4.65) 9 (2 players)
      CO bets $3.10, Hero raises to $7.20, CO calls $4.10

      River: ($19.05) 8 (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $15.90 and is all-in, CO calls $15.90


      CO was 19/13/2 over 2.7k
      CO Steal - 18
      CB: F - 35, T - 56
      Flop CBet vs Raise: Call - 4/6, Fold - 1/6, 3bet - 1/6
      Skip CBet and check/fold: 65(23)
      Turn CBet vs Raise: Call - 4/5, Fold - 1/5
      AG% - 22 (20/22/28)
      WTSD - 22, W$SD - 65

      Given how passive this villain is I definitely shouldn't float him. It's profitable for me to just call him and always attack the board when he checks.

      I am not sure if my raise is good. Villain is a nit and I have a blocker to many flush combos (so he can have only 2 - K:dJ and J:dT). Is it still better to just call?

      I figured that since I block so many flush combos I should bet for value. However, villain will not call with worse given his low WTSD so I isolate myself vs flushes/KJ and Jx at best. Therefore, I should check back on this river.
  • 1 reply
    • cutegoldfish
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335

      Flop - it's ok to call here we have an over card and gutshot to the straight with a backdoor nut flush draw and J could be good if we hit.

      Turn - raise is terrible here he's not folding and we open ourselves up to a jam which we cannot call. And he's shown that he's cally ttowards a raises and our sizing here highly encourages a call. I rather just call here.

      River - not muchwworse can call here if I'm betting I'll bet really small like 7 dollars for crying calls from 2p set.