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[NL2-NL10] 5NL SH Going for thin value on river

    • ChangNoi77
      ChangNoi77
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.06.2012 Posts: 352
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
      SB ($10.49)
      BB ($13.50)
      UTG ($12.74)
      Hero ($5)
      CO ($5.07)
      BTN ($15.02)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: Q:spade:

      UTG raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, CO calls $0.15, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.52) 7:club: 2:spade: 4:heart:

      UTG checks, Hero checks, CO checks

      TURN ($0.52) 7:club: 2:spade: 4:heart: Q:diamond:

      UTG bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, CO folds

      RIVER ($1.32) 7:club: 2:spade: 4:heart: Q:diamond: K:heart:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $0.60, UTG raises to $2.45, Hero folds

      UTG wins $2.42

      Villain is 23/18 opening 16% from UTG over 163 hands, seems to be a decent reg.

      I'm trying to increase my river aggression as it seems to be somewhere I'm losing a lot of value, whether it's 6Max reg tables or FR nitty Zoom, my river agg freq moves between 17-20%. Seems way too low. So once villain checks river I think a weaker Qx is very likely and decide to value bet. 16% probably includes QJo and QTs. Am I being too optimistic here?

      What does he play this way?, he's hasn't check raised once so far on any street.
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      When UTG checks flop we could think about betting here with two overcards and backdoor FD.

      As played, I wouldn't mind betting river although it's thin, but I would certainly not do it in order to increase my river aggression but just for value.
      Overall, you shouldn't be doing something just to make your stats better.

      Best,
      Plamen