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[NL20-NL50] ATs vs raise

    • mlatasrb
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,735
      PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 93.52 BB (VPIP: 22.68, PFR: 17.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 97)
      SB: 200.42 BB (VPIP: 20.88, PFR: 15.48, 3Bet Preflop: 6.24, Hands: 1,251)
      BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.92, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.25, Hands: 522)
      UTG: 52.7 BB (VPIP: 22.02, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 4.26, Hands: 611)
      MP: 503.04 BB (VPIP: 24.28, PFR: 18.50, 3Bet Preflop: 6.40, Hands: 1,137)
      Hero (CO): 431.98 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T:spade: A:spade:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) A:heart: 3:spade: 6:spade:
      BB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, BB raises to 11 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

      Turn: (28.5 BB, 2 players) 9:club:
      BB bets 19.5 BB, Hero calls 19.5 BB

      River: (67.5 BB, 2 players) 7:club:
      BB bets 66.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 66.5 BB

      BB shows 8:diamond: 8:club: (One Pair, Eights) (Pre 53%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
      Hero shows T:spade: A:spade: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 47%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
      Hero wins 195.5 BB

      Would it be ok to bet bet bet with AT from CO when I have initiative vs regg? I think I have mostly the best hand, since he probably 3bets AJ+.

      I call down, because he repps only 2 pair and sets, and I think he could raise me because of my 1/2 cbet (which was missclick)

      Question how should he play on river. He had 88, and obviously spewy flop and turn, but river missed fd at least, so I think he could play c/c on river? Because I should have more fd combos than sets, and Ax I probably dont bet, except AK maybe?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795

      I think AQ usually 3-bets but I think most players flat AJ in BB vs CO. Even in BB vs BU it's really common for them to flat AJ.

      So the question is whether you expect your opponents to
      1. Have many worse AX hands in the first place - My guess is that it's probably A2s+ and A9o-AJo
      2. call 3 streets with those, putting you on a busted draw

      I think it could be fine but you need to bluff a ton too for balance.

      As played, given the limited amount of reads available, I might just fold here. You have some flush draw blockers which means that it's less likely for villain to be on a busted flush draw himself.

      You also have plenty of better hands to call down with.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795
      About whether he should bluff catch or not - Well he shouldn't even have gotten here with 88 in the first place. Anyway that really depends on how often you are bluffing and how often you are folding a hand like AT which is a pure bluff catcher.

      Really hard to say, many variables that are unknown here, such as your river folding frequency and your river bluffing frequency.