[NL20-NL50] QTo on paired turn

    • MisterSnS
      MisterSnS
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2011 Posts: 1,748
      iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 148.2 BB (VPIP: 21.97, PFR: 18.94, 3Bet Preflop: 5.08, Hands: 135)
      SB: 102 BB (VPIP: 16.69, PFR: 12.51, 3Bet Preflop: 6.08, Hands: 926)
      Hero (BB): 118.05 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T:diamond: Q:heart:

      BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) 9:diamond: J:spade: K:spade: Hero checks, BTN bets 5 BB, Hero raises to 17 BB, BTN calls 12 BB

      Turn%s: (40.5 BB, 2 players) J:diamond: Hero bets 25 BB, BTN raises to 128.2 BB and is all-in, Hero ???

      Hi!
      Villain seems from his stats to be a solid tag.
      The only notes I got on him are:
      [P] Called 2Bet from blinds range {JTs,A7o} (2)
      [T] Played turn draw aggressively (1)

      Preflop I think its a normal call against almost anybody. On the Flop we yield the straight and I plan to checkraise. Am not so sure about the size though, could have been probably bigger sth lik $3,80 or $4,00. However, he just CALLS I continue with a bit more than 2/3 of the pot and he jams over the cbet.

      First of all we get Pot Odds of 2,24:1 -> need 31% Equity.

      Am not so sure about his range though. For me it would make no sense to jam a boat here since there is actually no rivercard he could be scared of. ?(
      Of course without reads its always a bit vague to say.. same with saying he could maybe also jam QJ/AJ/JT/ A :spade: T :spade: , A :spade: Q :spade: , or A :diamond: K :diamond:


      Board: 9:diamond: K:spade: J:spade:  J:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    34.61%  33.44%   1.17% { QhTd }
      MP3    65.39%  64.22%   1.17% { KK, JJ, 99, KJs, QJs, J9s+, AdKd, AdQd, AsQs, AsTs, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }


      So, I calculated a 34% Equity on the pot. Given Odds and assuming this range it was a call. What do you think of my analysis?
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Hey M,

      I would assume he doesn't have AQss in his range here, that usually gets it in on the flop, same for ATs and most combo draws. Next, QJo, unlikely he floats, and if he does, he doesn't ship it on the turn since he has a bluffcatcher only. You beat a lot less of his range, most likely he has KJ, J9, 99.. KK probably gets it in often on the flop as well. It's a clear fold imo, the odds you get are nowhere near enough.
    • MisterSnS
      MisterSnS
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2011 Posts: 1,748
      Thanks! But why do you assume that he is only 3betting QT, ATss and AQss on the flop but just calls a set? Of course, then J9 makes more sense to call since he can never be really happy getting it in against our range.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      I think he doesn't 3bet 99 or JJ, it's close but KK would get it in, owning your sets but JJ and 99 can't really get that much value by getting it in, esp 99... that doesn't greatly increase your equity though because the thing that keeps you at ~30% is the combo draws you put in his range which I think usually try to ship it on the flop. You are also 118bb deep, people bluff less the deeper you are.