[NL2-NL10] 10NL SH KQ TP OOP River call??

    • ChangNoi77
      Joined: 27.06.2012 Posts: 352
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($10.50)
      BB ($6.93)
      UTG ($10.15)
      UTG+1 ($5.38)
      Hero ($10.05)
      BTN ($7.25)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: K:diamond:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, fold, BB calls $0.20

      FLOP ($0.95) 7:spade: Q:club: 3:spade:

      BB checks, Hero bets $0.61, BTN calls $0.61, BB folds

      TURN ($2.17) 7:spade: Q:club: 3:spade: 5:diamond:

      Hero bets $1.05, BTN calls $1.05

      RIVER ($4.27) 7:spade: Q:club: 3:spade: 5:diamond: 4:heart:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $2.70, Hero calls $2.70

      Hero shows Q:diamond: K:diamond:
      (Pre 61%, Flop 52.2%, Turn 61.4%)

      BTN shows 4:spade: 5:spade:
      (Pre 39%, Flop 47.8%, Turn 38.6%)

      BTN wins $9.23

      Board: 7:spade: 3:spade: Q:club:  5:diamond:  4:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     33.33%  33.33%   0.00% { KdQd }
      BU     66.67%  66.67%   0.00% { 77, 55, AQs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As2s }

      I've made an assumption here that he'll 3 bet AQo a lot of the time and added a few combos of missed flush draws. He probably raises his Ax combos a lot but it doesn't change our analysis here so long as he has 6-7 combos that we beat.

      We need 28% to call.

      Is this all standard?
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi ChangNoi77,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: Why are you cbetting so small on that turn? We should be betting larger.

      I do agree that he seems aggro enough that CO vs BTN he 3-bets AQ so on the river he has missed draws and even some potential worse Qx (given your bet on the turn). So I don't mind your line.