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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 A8o turn overbet

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Black
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      Hero (BB): $95.21 (190.4 bb)
      UTG: $19.75 (39.5 bb)
      MP: $19.50 (39 bb)
      CO: $39.95 (79.9 bb)
      BTN: $52.78 (105.6 bb)
      SB: $50 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A 8
      4 folds, SB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1

      Flop: ($3) T K 6 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2

      Turn: ($7) 7 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB folds


      SB 18/16 304 hands
      SB steal 24%
      flop cbet 76%

      He seems to be the straightforward, nitty TAG guy, who cbets every "good hand" (TP+/draws), and ch/calls every "potcontrol" hand, so I think his ranges are highly unbalanced.
      Is it OK to overbet turn to make him fold QQ/JJ/Tx (or 99-77, but he would prob fold that vs a normal bet as well), and possibly overbet river as well if he calls?
  • 9 replies
    • Holy93
      Holy93
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.06.2011 Posts: 863
      Hmm, he probably cbets his gutshots AQ,AJ. So with your bet, you make fold only A9 which is better than yours, and probably 22-55, but you could fold those later. So, you are ahead vs his check/folding range with A8 hi, but have little equity against his check/calling range, so I'd consider checking back, and not start barrelling/overbetting without EQ.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      I like it. Not sure how you should balance it, but it is definitely stronger than betting turn 2/3 pot and then left with river decision (even if you overbet river, he may still herocall you with smt like AT, since you never have anything)
      If you overbet turn then he likely does not mess you around too much and you can always next time overbetting just Kx to see how he reacts+ likely draws.

      Against standard ABC players 2/3 bet is also enough to get him to fold marginal pair and better Ax hands.

      best regards,
    • Holy93
      Holy93
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.06.2011 Posts: 863
      You can't balance it, if you start betting and barreling so loose, that you bet A8o, baiscally you bet every hand from your BB calling range then? Because A8-A9 are the best hands to check back imo.

      Overbetting draws, and sets, and top2 makes more sense, than this, with so low EQ
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Holy93
      You can't balance it, if you start betting and barreling so loose, that you bet A8o, baiscally you bet every hand from your BB calling range then? Because A8-A9 are the best hands to check back imo.

      Overbetting draws, and sets, and top2 makes more sense, than this, with so low EQ
      turn overbets are very rare, so mostly you don´t have to balance them.
      I agree that reasonable line is check back turn to then bet river (or check it down), since if he gave up I don´t think he would start bluffing river (rather he would bluff with A river) and c/f his marginal hands on Q, J rivers.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      I like the overbet as well.

      To add to the discussion, if villain folds his draws it's good for us. Holy93 assumes that if draws miss villain will check OTR which will rarely be the case as more often than not villain will bluff with them and we will not be able to call. However, those same draws are folding to an overbet.

      Another point worth mentioning is that most ABC TAG's (including me, hopefully) fold hands like AT / QQ-JJ or even KJ to an overbet OTT as often enough overbet = nuts so that bluffcatching is not profitable without any reads.

      Finally, I think overbetting A8 is better than strong draws, because: 1. A9/A8 has a gutshot + an ace is likely live but there are not enough good river cards to include this in river bluffing range. 2. Stronger draws have more good river cards when they can bluff if missed.


      Taking all these points into consideration, I think it's better to triple barrel with strong draws and overbet with nuts/weak draws OTT and A8 fits very well into the weak draw range in this particular hand and overbetting should be standard.
    • Holy93
      Holy93
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.06.2011 Posts: 863
      I think you misunderstood me. OVB turn with a GS is somewhat okay. If we get to the turn as hero played, I think it's okay, if we started bluffing with 0 EQ, we should continue if we get a GS on the turn.

      I don't like start barreling in the first place. Why?

      Villain is probably opening a quite wide range from SB. He is checking the flop. What hands does he check with?

      He is giving up with hands that totally miss the flop. A8 is ahead of these (notice, that A8-A9 is the nut air here, as he cbets AJ/AQ gutshots), but will fold if we bet (weaker Ax hands, weaker 8x, Qx Jx etc, usually these have 3-6 outs against our A8)

      He is check/calling or check/raising, neither of them is good for us, as we have to immediately fold to a check/raise, and if he calls, only a few turn can help us, and villain's range gets a lot stronger after check/called.

      What range would you like to play against?

      I think it's better to check back, trying to check it down, even call one street with A8 hi if villain bets. If we had some BD equity, that we can get good turns with, and could barrel with a good equity, I'd start betting on the flop.

      By betting the flop with A8 you accomplish nothing. You make everything you beat fold, and get called or raised by better hands. You throw away the SD value of your hand. And, basically, if you bet too much marginal SD value hands if villain checks, you end up being unbalanced, and betting too much.


      Originally posted by Dawidas888
      I like the overbet as well.

      To add to the discussion, if villain folds his draws it's good for us. Holy93 assumes that if draws miss villain will check OTR which will rarely be the case as more often than not villain will bluff with them and we will not be able to call. However, those same draws are folding to an overbet.
      He won't have draws in his range. He is either cbetting, or check/raising them.


      Originally posted by Dawidas888
      Another point worth mentioning is that most ABC TAG's (including me, hopefully) fold hands like AT / QQ-JJ or even KJ to an overbet OTT as often enough overbet = nuts so that bluffcatching is not profitable without any reads.
      Depending on the pot odds offered, you can calculate how much of your checking range you could calldown with vs overbets.


      Originally posted by Dawidas888
      Finally, I think overbetting A8 is better than strong draws, because: 1. A9/A8 has a gutshot + an ace is likely live but there are not enough good river cards to include this in river bluffing range. 2. Stronger draws have more good river cards when they can bluff if missed.


      Taking all these points into consideration, I think it's better to triple barrel with strong draws and overbet with nuts/weak draws OTT and A8 fits very well into the weak draw range in this particular hand and overbetting should be standard.
      Somewhat agree, but I'd still ovb flushdraws and OESD too (aswell as sets) because we want to pressure his Kx Tx hands, and play for a big pot if he still calls.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Black
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      Hey guys, nice conversation. :)

      Originally posted by Holy93
      I don't like start barreling in the first place.
      I didnt start barreling, I made an autobet with anytwo cards on the flop, which I'm sure is profitable.

      I agree, that it's very far from gto and balanced ranges and shit, but I experienced that on micro/smallstakes a big common leak is to have a very unbalanced checking range (cbetting every good made hand and draws, and ch/calling only medium hands), so they ch/fold way too much. And this Villain, standard, somewhat nitty 18/16 TAG is likely in this category.
      If I try to remember, I could name maybe 4-5 players from my whole poker carrier up to NL50, who had somewhat good, balanced checking ranges (didnt like playing against them of course... :D ).

      If I make him fold worse hands on the flop, it's fine by me. Even a hand as weak as 5:s4 has 25%...

      Board: K:heart: T:diamond: 6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      SB     25.96%  25.96%   0.00% { 5s4s }
      BB     74.04%  74.04%   0.00% { Ah8s }


      Plus if he bets turn as a bluff, I cant call, despite having the better hand.

      Plus if he starts ch/calling, his range will be face up, so I can exploit him once again by betting/overbetting.


      But I'm aware, that it's very far from theoretically optimal, balanced play. Just like my opponent. :)
    • Holy93
      Holy93
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.06.2011 Posts: 863
      Yeah, it's gonna be profitable. Cbetting at micros with any2 is probably profitable too, because ppl won't adjust, and keep folding 60%. But it's still not the best play, only because it shows profit.

      Sure 54s has 25% EQ and we can be outdrawn sometimes. Some other time his weaker Ax or 8x improves, and we can get 1-2 streets of value from them (and from his bluff), because we haven't make them fold on the flop.

      So, if you planned to invest money in the pot isn't it better to check, and play vs a weaker range that can bluff, or improve sometimes to 2nd best hand? Unless you planned to go for multiple barrel, which I think is a bad idea, with a hand, that has very low chance to improve, so our range doesn't improve, but villain's does, with every check/call.

      I think we can bluffcatch on every Qx, Jx, 9x, 7x, Ax, 8x, and probably low blanks aswell, because it's unlikely if he is outdraw us with 45s on the turn, he'll bet his 4th pair, when we either gave up (have us beaten) or we play potcontroll with a marginal hand.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Against player who plays ABC poker I would generally bet turn (even with showdown value)- he does not mix up enough c/c ranges on the turn and even if we´re often ahead I would prefer taking pot down on the turn. Turn overbet likely guarantees that we succeed close to 100% (unless he is trying to c/r us).