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[NL20-NL50] nl25 river bluffing

    • wealthybrainer
      wealthybrainer
      Silver
      Joined: 01.05.2013 Posts: 287
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2282792
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $25.71 - VPIP: 49, PFR: 31, 3B: 12, AF: 1.3, Hands: 147
      SB: $32.84 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 17, 3B: 6, AF: 2.2, Hands: 14447
      BB: $28.50 - VPIP: 43, PFR: 14, 3B: 14, AF: 5.0, Hands: 14
      UTG: $29.72 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2.1, Hands: 4463
      MP: $44.34 - VPIP: 35, PFR: 23, 3B: 8, AF: 1.5, Hands: 6870
      Hero (CO): $25.00 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 2.0, Hands: 8166

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 9 :heart: 7 :heart:
      UTG raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.25

      Flop: ($4.35) 8 :spade: 8 :heart: T :spade: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.75, UTG calls $2.75

      Turn: ($9.85) 5 :heart: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $5.50, UTG calls $5.50

      River: ($20.85) 5 :club: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero checks

      Final Pot: $20.85
      UTG shows Q :heart: Q :spade:
      Hero mucks 9 :heart: 7 :heart:
      UTG wins $19.91
      (Rake: $0.94)

      Hi :)
      What hands I should bluff on the river? I know I should sometimes bluff on the river, maybe all busted flushdraws because I wouldn't have so many flushdraws but I would have many value hands (full house, Aces and Kings)? I would preflop flat often because there is a fish on the table so I decided that T8s is too weak to flat but good enough to bluff
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi wealthybrainer,

      Preflop: What's his open in UTG and fold to 3-bet? You have a ton of hands on him so we should have a better idea of that. Given he opened utg and he doesn't seem overly loose we don't need to 3-bet hands like this

      Postflop: As played first you should ask yourself what you want him to fold on the river and then what to bluff with.

      So what do you want him to fold?
    • wealthybrainer
      wealthybrainer
      Silver
      Joined: 01.05.2013 Posts: 287
      QQ and JJ. If we don't have any bluff range (like this time) he should fold and I would (I dunno if it is good to fold QQ and JJ)
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Every draw missed there so a lot of guys will have a very hard time folding an overpair.

      Given your bet sizings you left yourself a 3/4 pot on the river which means that your bluff would have to work about 43% of the time.

      Both FDs missed and he can expect us to bluff occasionally, of course the 5 is not a good bluff card so some people will fold. Given the sample I would also check WTSD because some are definitely tighter than others.

      Also check preflop stats so we can estimate what ranges he can have postflop. He should have some draws himself and maybe even 99.