[NL20-NL50] KJo 3b river?

    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,722
      PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: 67.96 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 70)
      SB: 158.64 BB (VPIP: 26.10, PFR: 22.37, 3Bet Preflop: 10.82, Hands: 1,515)
      Hero (BB): 131.18 BB
      UTG: 89.94 BB (VPIP: 21.33, PFR: 14.67, 3Bet Preflop: 3.13, Hands: 76)
      MP: 103.74 BB (VPIP: 24.55, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.48, Hands: 335)
      CO: 307.9 BB (VPIP: 42.11, PFR: 31.58, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 19)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:heart: J:club:

      fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9.5 BB, CO calls 6.5 BB

      Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) T:club: 7:heart: Q:diamond:
      Hero bets 9 BB, CO calls 9 BB

      Turn: (37.5 BB, 2 players) 5:club:
      Hero bets 22 BB, CO calls 22 BB

      River: (81.5 BB, 2 players) 2:spade:
      Hero checks, CO bets 31 BB, fold

      CO wins 77.84 BB

      I see that I should bet larger flop and turn, to be able to shove river if necessary (for balancing)

      River bet? I would bet AQ, QQ+, QTs, for value so how many bluffs should I have on river? His stats look fishy, so I think I dont need to care about balancing here, since he probably doesnt fold river.

      What should be a bluff range on river? My value range has 29 combos, so I should have like 66% bluff and 33% value combos (nash equilibrium if I bet 2/3 pot size on river), so it means I need to have 58 combos of bluff.

      Is it ok to bluff all combos AK (16 combos), KJ (16 combos), AJ (16) combos, and some bdfd combos? All those hands have ok equity flop and turn (I dont see what else would I bluff on flop and turn).
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi mlatasrb,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: It's not really even the balancing that you need to worry about but rather "story telling". Meaning that, looking at the board, if I had a value hand would I not bet bigger to easily get it in on the river?

      We had a similar hand we discussed about last week.

      First, look for what you want to bluff versus. What hands do you want him to fold?

      In a lot of cases you'd be burning money there unless he floats 4th pair or Ax and can fold them.
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,722
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Hi mlatasrb,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: It's not really even the balancing that you need to worry about but rather "story telling". Meaning that, looking at the board, if I had a value hand would I not bet bigger to easily get it in on the river?

      We had a similar hand we discussed about last week.

      First, look for what you want to bluff versus. What hands do you want him to fold?

      In a lot of cases you'd be burning money there unless he floats 4th pair or Ax and can fold them.
      Yes, when I was on river, I rembember AK hand where I was shoving river on mono board where all draws missed and you told me that there are very few combos that fold, so I shoud give up.
      Thats why I didn't bet river this time.

      However, coatch mbml often tells me about balancing, that I should have bluff range here.
      So my question, if I should bet was mostly about balancing, which bluff combos shoudl I have on river, vs good regg?

      I guess vs this guy, he calls AQ, KQ (24 combos), QJ (2 combos), QT (2 combos), TT (3), QQ (1-3), AA, KK (1-4 combos), and he could fold maybe JJ (1-3 combos), KJs (2 combos), 89s (4 combos)

      So, when I conclude that there are really not many that fold river, I dont need ever to bluff there?
      What if I play vs thinking regg, and if I always shove only AQ, KK+, sets, 2 pair, he will start folding on river JJ, KQ, QJ maybe even AQ, and then I would need to shove bluff?