[NL20-NL50] nl20 river decision?

    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      BB: $11.59 (58 bb)
      UTG: $20.80 (104 bb)
      MP: $14.35 (71.8 bb)
      CO: $2.84 (14.2 bb)
      BTN: $6.96 (34.8 bb)
      Hero (SB): $32.75 (163.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with K K
      UTG raises to $0.60, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2, BB folds, UTG calls $1.40

      Flop: ($4.20) 9 2 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.52, UTG calls $2.52

      Turn: ($9.24) 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.40, UTG calls $5.40

      River: ($20.04) Q (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $10.88 and is all-in, Hero ?(

      villain is 19/14 over 300 hands ~70% fold to 3bet at the time. i have no notes on him, never even got into any big hands with him either. his 3bet stat is 4% which imo looks pretty weak and so i assume he's a nitty weak regular.

      preflop i prefer 3betting even tho he's nitty - i think his range is tight enough for him to call with hands like AQ and QQ, JJ, maybe TT and maybe more PPs.

      no reason to check the flop so i just bet for vlaue vs QQ JJ TT FDs and floats if he wants.

      same reason on the turn and now some floats turn equity. so i just bet to build a pot for the river.

      on the river i think this is possibly one of the worst cards in the deck besides a T or J. i think his range for getting to the river is this: JJ-TT, AdAh, AdAs, QdQh, QdQc, QhQc, 9d9s, 9d9c, 9s9c, AcKc, AhQh, AcQc, AhJh, AcJc --- i gave him a couple AA combos just in case, along with 99 and TT which i dont think is a huge stretch.

      if i bet, he folds all bluffs which are busted FDs. he folds JJ and TT mostly as well... there are only 2 combos of hands: AcQc and AhQh that he can call with when i bet. so i check. against his calling range of QQ,99,AdAh,AdAs,AhQh,AcQc -- i have 20% equity here.

      if i check i think he checks back with JJ, TT. maybe he also checks back with busted FDs - in general i assume people play these passively but its a good spot to bluff i think.... if he has busted FDs in his jamming range, i have 38.5% equity and so i get the odds to call here. if he doesn't jam them (which i really think is a big possibility) then again i have 20% and don't get the odds to call.

      if he never has AA here i still only get 25% equity so not a call. if he never has AA or 99 here then i have 40% so looks like a call... but if he has even just 2 combos of AA my equity drobs to 28.5% and again its really close if we think about rake here.

      what to do?! i guess it just comes down to assumptions - and he seems like a bad reg so i think he wont bluff busted draws on the river...
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,717

      I think folding is clearly out of the question so it's between a shove and a c/c. I think this is definitely a shove here because he should often put you on a busted flush draw yourself and call down lighter with TT/JJ