overly ambitious bluff?

    • Itsnevereasy
      Itsnevereasy
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.08.2010 Posts: 381
      BTN: $490.30
      SB: $174.76
      BB: $434.70
      Hero (UTG): $497.20
      MP: $551.10
      CO: $201.40

      Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is UTG with 9 :heart: 9 :spade:
      2 folds, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $12, 1 fold, CO calls $8

      Flop: ($38.00) 6 :spade: A :diamond: 3 :club: (3 players)
      CO checks, BB bets $24.00, Hero calls $24, CO folds

      Turn: ($86.00) 8 :diamond: (2 players)
      BB bets $54.00, Hero raises to $156, BB calls $102

      River: ($398.00) 2 :club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $305.20, BB calls $242.70 all in

      Final Pot: $883.40
      BB shows A :club: K :spade:
      Hero shows 9 :heart: 9 :spade:
      BB wins $878.40
      (Rake: $5.00)

      How the F*** does he call?!

      ***EDIT***

      Obviously the hand has been converted with a mistake. THe original raiser is not in BB because BB is last to act preflop! Raiser is in the CO, I'm on the button and Fish is in the BB.

      My thoughts during the hand

      Preflop - standard, want to let the fish in + not much value in 3betting with 99 given no hyperaggressive dynamic.

      Flop - I am prolly ahead of the raisers cbetting range since I think he will cbet with his entire range here. Its close between a call and a raise but without going too much on a tangent, I planned to call and find out if he has an ace on the turn. If he bets he has an ace, if he checks I bet 1/3 and he folds 95% of the time.

      Turn - He bets again. Ok he has an ace. Plan was to fold. However I just realised that there are literally no bluffs in my raising range on the turn! I do not float the flop 3 handed with the fish behind me, especially that Ax offsuit is a big chunk of the fishes range due to combinatorics. I do have A8,A6,A3 suited in my range for sure, since fish is in BB and I do have the sets in my range. So my value range is not even that narrow! All of the above means means (or should mean) that he perceives my raising range on the turn as pure value - which until this play it was ;)

      River - He instacalls the turn and my read is that he has AK. I feel like he would contemplate a bit more with something stronger, especially OOP because he might miss out on value. For example if I have 2 pair and the flush hits on the river etc... I go all in being very confident that he will fold AK and he snap calls! Shame on me. :s_o:
  • 12 replies
    • unshpe
      unshpe
      Basic
      Joined: 20.05.2013 Posts: 294
      Interesting spewy line by him. Prolly put you on dimaond SC that have a pair/guthsot/float with backdoors OTF , cause that's what he beats and hoped for the best.

      Nice to see a coach analysis.
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 9,151
      There was no obvious scare card. You tried to rep a slow played flopped set or a turned set. Villain may have briefly considered A8 in your range, but the flat pre and post flop tends to smell of suited connectors. When you raise turn, villain puts you on diamond draw which of course misses.

      I suspect if you were both deeper stacked you would have been facing a river raise.

      Easy call for villain as he would expect to see other Ax here as well as busted diamond draws.
    • unshpe
      unshpe
      Basic
      Joined: 20.05.2013 Posts: 294
      Originally posted by Lazza61
      There was no obvious scare card. You tried to rep a slow played flopped set or a turned set. Villain may have briefly considered A8 in your range, but the flat pre and post flop tends to smell of suited connectors. When you raise turn, villain puts you on diamond draw which of course misses.

      I suspect if you were both deeper stacked you would have been facing a river raise.

      Easy call for villain as he would expect to see other Ax here as well as busted diamond draws.
      So you're saying Hero's line represents
      - value: 33,66 (maybe 88) and 8 :club: 6 :club: 8 :heart: 6 :heart:
      - semi-bluffs that missed like pair + FD , FD+Guthost (5 :diamond: 4 :diamond: binked river)

      And he calls because there are more bluffs in Hero's range?

      Thanks!
    • Iam2good
      Iam2good
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.07.2013 Posts: 95
      I don't understand. You are are UTG, so you should act first. CO checks first on the flop than BB? Or am I stupid

      OBV AK is a bluffcatcher, and he can't expect many FD you have OTT. Indeed maybe only 54 :diamond, 76 :diamond: , but I don't think you would even call those hands normally. You or only repping a set. I think you have to know your opponent first. If he is a fish or a reg who has a High WTSD, I would not bluff here. But if you know your opponent is good in handreading and is able to fold, than this should be a OK move if you don't do it to often.

      Btw, Lazza61# lol, you are talking some good bulsjit.
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 9,151
      Originally posted by unshpe
      Originally posted by Lazza61
      There was no obvious scare card. You tried to rep a slow played flopped set or a turned set. Villain may have briefly considered A8 in your range, but the flat pre and post flop tends to smell of suited connectors. When you raise turn, villain puts you on diamond draw which of course misses.

      I suspect if you were both deeper stacked you would have been facing a river raise.

      Easy call for villain as he would expect to see other Ax here as well as busted diamond draws.
      So you're saying Hero's line represents
      - value: 33,66 (maybe 88) and 8 :club: 6 :club: 8 :heart: 6 :heart:
      - semi-bluffs that missed like pair + FD , FD+Guthost (5 :diamond: 4 :diamond: binked river)

      And he calls because there are more bluffs in Hero's range?

      Thanks!

      I would expect most players preflop to muck or limp/fold 33 from UTG. 66 is very marginal. If you have 88, 3 betting is a better option as they can be difficult post flop and Hero has position post flop. AA is a certain 3 bet, so if I was villain I wouldn't be putting Hero on PP of any kind.

      The fact that Hero floated flop and then raised turn when 2nd diamond appears with no other draws completing just means the likely hands villain is facing are Axdd or other dd hands. When the totally useless 2c lands on the river, villain is only expecting to be beaten by A8dd.

      Glad you like my bullshit Iam2good. I aim to please. :D
    • divvie
      divvie
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.08.2010 Posts: 3,293
      I would expect most players preflop to muck or limp/fold 33 from UTG. 66 is very marginal. If you have 88, 3 betting is a better option as they can be difficult post flop and Hero has position post flop. AA is a certain 3 bet, so if I was villain I wouldn't be putting Hero on PP of any kind.The fact that Hero floated flop and then raised turn when 2nd diamond appears with no other draws completing just means the likely hands villain is facing are Axdd or other dd hands. When the totally useless 2c lands on the river, villain is only expecting to be beaten by A8dd.Glad you like my bullshit Iam2good. I aim to please. :D


      :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:

      Are u serious?
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 9,151
      Originally posted by divvie
      I would expect most players preflop to muck or limp/fold 33 from UTG. 66 is very marginal. If you have 88, 3 betting is a better option as they can be difficult post flop and Hero has position post flop. AA is a certain 3 bet, so if I was villain I wouldn't be putting Hero on PP of any kind.The fact that Hero floated flop and then raised turn when 2nd diamond appears with no other draws completing just means the likely hands villain is facing are Axdd or other dd hands. When the totally useless 2c lands on the river, villain is only expecting to be beaten by A8dd.Glad you like my bullshit Iam2good. I aim to please. :D


      :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:

      Are u serious?
      No. I'm trying to figure out what villain was thinking. If I was villain I would have folded turn or 3 bet if I truly believed him to be on a draw.
    • Itsnevereasy
      Itsnevereasy
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.08.2010 Posts: 381
      Made an edit to the original post, please read.

      I suspect if you were both deeper stacked you would have been facing a river raise.

      Easy call for villain as he would expect to see other Ax here as well as busted diamond draws.


      thats how I know you play the micros. Both comments are completely outlandishly incorrect. He would not raise if we were deepstacked since my range is polarized and he does not expect other Ax in my range.
    • Itsnevereasy
      Itsnevereasy
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.08.2010 Posts: 381
      :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:

      Are u serious?


      I think he is.
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      Flop - I am prolly ahead of the raisers cbetting range since I think he will cbet with his entire range here. Its close between a call and a raise but without going too much on a tangent, I planned to call and find out if he has an ace on the turn. If he bets he has an ace, if he checks I bet 1/3 and he folds 95% of the time.
      It's not close between call and raise. U shouldn't raise any hand here since there's a fish left to act. Call is the only play unless u wanna fold.

      Turn - He bets again. Ok he has an ace. Plan was to fold. However I just realised that there are literally no bluffs in my raising range on the turn! I do not float the flop 3 handed with the fish behind me, especially that Ax offsuit is a big chunk of the fishes range due to combinatorics. I do have A8,A6,A3 suited in my range for sure, since fish is in BB and I do have the sets in my range. So my value range is not even that narrow! All of the above means means (or should mean) that he perceives my raising range on the turn as pure value - which until this play it was ;)
      Don't like raising here. Even if u bluff 1/100 times here, your opponent won't give any credit for that. At least I won't and don't know any regs who fold Ax here, at least in this limit. If u're a huge nit, this maybe could work, but I don't like this play otherwise.
      Most players will slowplay their sets here, maybe something like 86s or A8s makes sense to raise, but it's only a couple of combos and calling could even be better with those as well.
      Obviously fold is a standard, but if U wanna bluff him, call again and then shove over his river bet. This is the strongest line on these types of boards IMO. I'd like to have some sort of gutshot or diamonds for this play much better, but if u don't float on the flop U don't have these hands, this one could be fine.

      River - He instacalls the turn and my read is that he has AK. I feel like he would contemplate a bit more with something stronger, especially OOP because he might miss out on value. For example if I have 2 pair and the flush hits on the river etc... I go all in being very confident that he will fold AK and he snap calls! Shame on me. :s_o:
      It's very unlikely u will see too many players folding AK in this spot at nl400, unless u're a huge nit.
      I'm not fan of that shove, I think we can't bluff him off too many Ax since he called the turn. I rather check back and hope to win 1/10 times when he has diamonds or something like 75s.
    • lnternet
      lnternet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      You can't raise two pair on the turn if you think he folds AK. So your value range is actually only sets, which is very few combos and bluffing 99 is way too loose (no set blocker).

      (if you say, "I do raise A3 on the turn!", then you are saying he calls down too much and you should never bluff!)

      That said I don't mind your play.
    • Itsnevereasy
      Itsnevereasy
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.08.2010 Posts: 381
      It's not close between call and raise. U shouldn't raise any hand here since there's a fish left to act. Call is the only play unless u wanna fold.


      You are right. What the hell was i thinking when I wrote that??? Raising has some merit - protection vs likely 6 outs of the original raiser and setting up to get the stacks in in the unlikely situation that a) fish has an ace b) we hit a set on the turn or river. But you are right raising is not really an option.

      (if you say, "I do raise A3 on the turn!", then you are saying he calls down too much and you should never bluff!)


      Yes, you are right there is an inconsistency in my thought process. Thanks for pointing that out. I have to either raise the turn with A3 or bluff. Raising for value with A3 seems like a much better option so raising with 99 as a bluff must be bad.

      Thanks for the usefull comments, guys. :s_grin: