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Guess The Hand & Win Cash! - Week 4

    • TJtheTJ
      Joined: 12.10.2011 Posts: 6,588

      Guess The Hand!

      We are happy to bring you a new community promotion: Guess The Hand!

      Whereas usually you think in ranges, narrowing our Hero down to a single hand could win you a cash prize of $50!

      Congratulations to last week's winner, pawel0903! The correct answer was 54s. We will contact you about this shortly!

      This promotion will be running for 4 weeks. We will post a new hand each week, meaning you have one week to guess the hand. This is the last week.

      This week we will be guessing hero's hand again. This hand was played at NL100 by one of our coaches. No stats are available for this particular hand.

      • Only one guess per member is counted. If you make multiple guesses, your first one counts.
      • You must explain your thought process. If you only provide us with a hand, your guess will not be eligible.
      • If more than 1 member guesses the hand correctly, there will be a raffle between them.
      • All guesses must be made before Sunday September 1, 23:59 CET (GMT+2)

      This week's hand

      0.50/1 No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by
      Table Afterburner

      UTG (100) 100bb
      Hero (UTG+1) (103) 103bb
      CO (141) 141bb
      BTN (107) 107bb
      SB (119) 119bb
      BB (158) 158bb

      Blinds: 1/1

      Pre-Flop: (2bb, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with ? ?
      1 fold, Hero raises to 3bb, CO calls 3bb, 3 folds

      Flop: J:club: 8:diamond: 4:club: (8bb, 2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets 4bb, Hero raises to 14bb, CO calls 10bb

      Turn: 2:spade: (36bb, 2 players)
      Hero bets 22bb, CO calls 22bb

      River: Q:spade: (80bb, 2 players)
      Hero goes all-in 64bb, CO calls 64bb

      Final Pot: 208bb

      Have fun and join the game!
  • 78 replies
    • liessens
      Joined: 11.12.2010 Posts: 2,751
      T :club: 9 :club:

      In mp range

      Flop represent hero or monster or monsterdraw, but think at this drawy board. He most of the time will just c-bet.

      Turn he as easy enough equity to barrel

      River hitting nuts easy
    • Gadgaard
      Joined: 25.06.2012 Posts: 124
      I'd say he hold 10 9s clubs

      lets start look at postflop play. If we look at the flop its quite drawheavy. so a TP or set would have to be protected with a bet, and not a checkraise. Any flush i dont see why villain should checkraise since it would make no sense because he's not interested in an AI at flop, and would most likely play it as a semibluff bet with it instead of checkraise.
      However if he has 109 clubs it would make perfect sense since he's already ok with the AI in since he has enough outs.
      at turn he fires a 2nd barrel. and at river he completes his nut draw and go AI for value. I don't see how hero can be bluffing here, when the Q hits the board when the pot is already that big.

      reason for 109 clubs too is that preflop hero raises from utg. and it would be too weak raising lower suited connectors here even though its sh.

      meh, I see some other guy beat me to it while i was writing my long analyse -.-
    • Rihard4a
      Joined: 08.09.2010 Posts: 2,064
      A :club: Ax
    • HellFire021
      Joined: 27.10.2012 Posts: 21
      Q :club: 8 :club:

      Assuming hero is an aggressive REG with big postflop edge over his opponents, opening with this hand from utg+1 is plausible.On flop hero hits heavy,with essentially 14 outs to improve to the nuts (9 if villain has 9 T in which case hero is already ahead).Villian is most likely representing a top pair with a good kicker ( AJ most likely,maybe even KJ) when he calls heros raise on flop. Turn bricks and hero is semibluffing over half the pot. On river hero hits pretty good card because Q :spade: disguises his strength and villain will call him with worse (top pair top kicker) assuming hero missed his draw.All sets would shove on flop over heros raise for protection/value,so hero evaluates and decides to go allin for value because only 9 T (and highly unlikely qj) beats him and many worse hands will call.
    • roqallo
      Joined: 10.03.2009 Posts: 2,100
      on c/r is more value and if he win now its also good
      on turn he semi bluf...
      on R his range is very strong and i thing is eazy push because all FD miss after on C/r flop his range is 44, JJ, 88, T9 and valin will have problems to call with Jx or Qx.... or QJ....
    • BotiaKiraly
      Joined: 18.03.2009 Posts: 461
      A :club: Q :club

      Looking at the postflop action I don't think hero had a made hand on the flop.

      flop: I do not usually check raise, only when I'm protecting blinds, but I am guessing that hero had to have a good draw, if he hit the flop he should have cbet, I would have cbet with any two there if villain isn't a fish. SO what kind of draws are we talking about K :club: Q :club: , A :club: Q :club: , 9:club: T :club: . 9Ts is a very unlikely raise from mp I think. so I am going to say that hero had A :club: Q :club.

      turn: On the turn he bet a bit more than half pot to get the money in early if he hits his flush

      river: Hero is thinking that the pot being that big he can still get payed off by AJ, or KJ; which are more combinations than 44, 88 some other hands in villains range. and if he checks he might have to fold when villain raises with TT or 99 which might also be in villains range.

      I don't really like this play everything seems so wierd but I think AQ of clubs is the most logical, but maybe I'm looking at it the wrong way...
    • holmeboy
      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      I'll post my thought process later, but hero has a set imo. JJ
    • Gftwrpd4u
      Joined: 01.07.2013 Posts: 56
      I think 10:club: 9:club: check/raise flop with the oesd and fd. barrel the turn given the equity and shove river for value when we hit the nuts!
    • wategun7
      Joined: 09.10.2010 Posts: 67
      Imo for value- hero has 44.

      We shouldn't be blindly cbetting especially oop on a board that hits CO's flatting range pre, and also shouldn't just check give up always when we check either.

      So having 44 in our flop checking range for balance is good since we let villain bet his Jx and strong draws and maybe even 8x, getting a bet from those hands which helps us get stacks in as SPR makes it difficult to bet/bet/shove for value anyway.

      I think it's less likely to be JJ as that hand is better as a check call or cbet imo since we are getting way too many folds with a checkraise- but vs button's halfpot bet checkraising with JJ is also plausible as he reps a ton of mediocre value heavy hands that perhaps is reluctant to fold.

      Anyway I stick with the most likely hand imo which is 44 (also important is that we are on utg+1, and not utg so shouldn't fold it pre).
    • SheepMoose
      Joined: 15.01.2009 Posts: 854
      88, possibly with one club.

      Hero X/R's knowing that this line will look bluffy, and Villain is likely to call with any Jx that may be in his range. River shove is normal since all flush draws missed, and a isn't a bad card since Villain can have A:club: Q:club: fairly often.
    • BoboSmrad
      Joined: 18.03.2011 Posts: 16

      Those are good hand to raise preflop

      The flop shows all lower cards than his and if the opponent got a pair on the flop the "hero" is still in the lead

      The turn has no value for the hero but in that case he can still get some value bet so the opponent think he has straight/flush draw

      On the river "hero" got a set and in that case the opponent can only think he hited a straight or a higher pair than him and thats why he shoves all in
    • weezyh
      Joined: 16.10.2012 Posts: 19
      I Think that Hero's holding JsJh cause he raised pre from UTG ,reraise on flop was protection from a flush draw ,on turn he bet 2nd barell to protect his hand and on river he was pot commited so only hand he coulnd't beat 9T or pocket Queens whichs is less possible cause it would all went allin on flop .
    • eddwiinn
      Joined: 02.06.2011 Posts: 59
      He got 9 :club: 10 :club:

      He is bluffing on his draws and hits the straight. While CO is just sitting there calling with his pocked 4's.
    • zwaluwj
      Joined: 20.05.2010 Posts: 58
      i think a set of JJ
    • pockettones
      Joined: 23.03.2013 Posts: 114
      9T clubs. Check/raise flop to build a pot with his combo draw and to gain value from villains air range. Barrel turn, building fold equity if river misses as well as for setting up a stack if draw hits. Hits nuts on river, shoves for value.
      OOP AJ and AQ clubs both have good showdown value and are not getting called by worse, I believe they are check/calling the river for a decent price to gain value from busted draws.

      Other possible hands here are JJ, 44, 88... that queen might be something of a scare card as villain will hold 9T a lot of the time, I still think JJ/88 are always shoving ... maybe hero also has some busted flush draws. If only we had reads :p
    • Riverdiver
      Joined: 12.07.2012 Posts: 1,126

      On this board we're very pretty often c/f so we can strengthen our checking range by c/r some huge draws and sets. We also greatly decrease the stack/pot ration so we can get our stacks in by the river.
    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Start PF: 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo+, KTo+, QJo

      Good board to have x/r ranges on cause it connects pretty well with oppo. We pbb bet JJ. X/r sets and some % of KK+, maybe some combodraw. Bluffs: Overcards/bdfd.

      Bad card to barrel, most people are weighted towards value. We could still have some combodraw

      Hits our bluffingrange, can't imagine us having much air unless we're really good ;p hmmm. I'm going with 44 cause it simple has more combos than 9Ts. Think we're not x/ring 9Ts exept for 9Tcc. KK+ becomes too thin. And also because people are more likely to take 88 apparently :D So my odds of shipping the $50 increase when I'm going with 44

      So 44
    • fusionpk
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,692

      ch/rai flop because he thought villain will bet wide OTF, since it looks like he's giving up, everyone knows ch/rai as PFA is generally strong so villain won't play back too much.

      bink T feel like an absolute hero and barrel it off.
    • raver81
      Joined: 23.12.2008 Posts: 1,175
      Q :club: ,Q :heart: