Graph, is this possible as a winner?

    • Guthans
      Guthans
      Silver
      Joined: 16.12.2009 Posts: 742
      Hey!

      So, I've played about 100k hands of zoom, NL10 with some NL25 stabs, and this is my graph. Pretty worrying, if you're looking to make money playing poker. I believe myself to be a winner, obviously I am no longer sure of it, but my question to you is; is this possible as a winner, and if possible, how likely is it?

      Haven't checked EV, it leaves out so much information that I think it's pretty useless, especially over a larger sample.

  • 7 replies
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Pretty much no. Your NSD are -15bb which is super horrible and your running at -5bb overall over a meaningful sample. What makes you think your a winner ?
    • Guthans
      Guthans
      Silver
      Joined: 16.12.2009 Posts: 742
      Originally posted by MatejM47
      Pretty much no. Your NSD are -15bb which is super horrible and your running at -5bb overall over a meaningful sample. What makes you think your a winner ?
      Alright, thank you for clarifying.
      I've had winners look at my full HEM stats over the sample and they can't find anything that's noticably off.

      It's kinda shitty, I've changed my game alot under these 100k hands to adjust to probably playing a shitty game, and now I'm kinda lost as to what may be wrong and if it is still wrong.

      I think I may be bad at readjusting my thinking when villain does something unexpected, that usually costs me a bunch otr.
    • Alan883
      Alan883
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2008 Posts: 1,941
      I think you can start here by posting your stats by street.

      For sure there are a lot of interesting stats that can be reviewed.

      VPIP, PFR, 3bet%, 4bet%, foldTo3Bet, 3betcall IP and OOP. Postflop action after you 3bet call. cbet flop cbet turn. fold2cbet flop, fold2cbet turn.


      Of course interesting are RFI from every position and all steal hands..
      Than aggression is interesting at every position and WTSD.

      I think there must be something that stands out.

      Then great option is also to order few hours of training with our great coaches and i am sure they will find your leak immediately.

      I hope things will turn around for you.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,901
      Hi, Guthans
      I'm curious too...

      I have the opposite problem.
      My NSD winnings are positive, and my showdown is what is dragging me down.

      I'm curious as to whether you are folding pre- or post- flop?

      The stats the others mentioned might give you some clues.

      Cheers,
      --VS
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      Hi, Guthans
      I'm curious too...

      I have the opposite problem.
      My NSD winnings are positive, and my showdown is what is dragging me down.

      I'm curious as to whether you are folding pre- or post- flop?

      The stats the others mentioned might give you some clues.

      Cheers,
      --VS
      I generally wouldn't worry about the redline to much as long as it is somewhere around -5bb to +5bb range. Most winning regs are around that.

      Op however is losing something like -18bb which is just way to much and pretty much has to have a ton of leaks to get it down this low.
    • Guthans
      Guthans
      Silver
      Joined: 16.12.2009 Posts: 742
      I'll be back here with stats etc if I don't figure this out.
      I had a great session just now, I think I've been really lazy with my approach to poker and have been too sloppy with my play. I know that I have the knowledge to beat the microes, but damn is it hard to apply it to hour long sessions day in and day out. Gonna be turning off all social medias(inc. phone) whilst playing, and just do 2 tables of zoom and really focus, that should make the leaks obvious.
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Possible reasons for your redline might be:

      A) Not defending enough from the blinds (a ton of people at NL25 and below have this leak, I am working on this leak of my own at the moment) so lets see VPIP/PFR/3bet/Cold Call stats for SB and BB.

      B) Cold calling pre and folding to too many cbets (Lets see your VPIP,PFR,Fold to Cbet stats)

      C) Cbetting too wide and then giving up too often when called (Lets see your Flop Cbet, Turn Cbet, River Cbet stats)

      D) All of the above.