Against Loose aggro fishes

    • Evante
      Evante
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2009 Posts: 833
      i see some reg call fishes raise with mid- low Suited aces and crap Kxs.

      The fish is basically blasting on every streets.

      Is it actually a good idea to call them with such weak hands?
  • 4 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Loose aggro isn't the whole story.

      Typically they open-raise wide, and come out on the flop with guns blazing.

      So if they are raising 30%, 3Bet 10% or more, aggro 8 or more, and CBetting 65% or so, over a couple of hundred hands, just how can they expect anyone to believe that they are getting that many good hands and hitting that many flops?

      The question you need to ask is:
      What range to I play back with?

      Just for laughs I put this into Equilab:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    49.42%  47.29%   2.12% { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
      UTG+1  50.58%  48.46%   2.12% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J9s+, A2o+, K7o+, Q9o+, JTo }


      UTG is 33%
      I used the hand range calculator to return a range with a minimum 40% equity vs a 33% range.

      The UTG+1 range is what came back, and it does even better than 40%
      if you 3Bet such a loose reg, can he fold?
      If so, how often?

      So,
      Let's say our loose aggro reg opens 3BB from MP
      Let's say he folds only 40% of the time to 3Bet
      and let us further assume that he 4Bets 20% of the time -- he is aggro -- and that we will always fold to a 4Bet
      We 3Bet 8 BB

      So:
      If he folds, we win 4.5 BB 33% of the time.
      If he 4Bets, we lost 8 BB 20 % of the time.
      If he calls, we have 40% equty of 16 BB

      Our EV then is:
      4.5 x 0.4= 1.8
      plus
      - 8 x 0.20 = -1.6
      plus
      16 * 0.4 = 6.4
      For a total EV of 6.6 bb

      I must have done something wrong -- it can't be THAT good.

      It assumes too, that there are no implied odds.

      But since there are some suited Ax hands and "Crap kings" in the range, perhaps the regs doing the calling aren't being so dumb.

      Sometimes we aren't going to 3Bet/Fold too -- sometimes we'll 3Bet/5Bet but I guess that is taken into consideration in the equity.

      Perhaps someone who can do the math better can sort me out here...

      Best of luck,
      --VS
    • patszerdonk
      patszerdonk
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2011 Posts: 834

      So:
      If he folds, we win 4.5 BB 33% of the time.
      If he 4Bets, we lost 8 BB 20 % of the time.
      If he calls, we have 40% equty of 16 BB


      Interesting.

      but:
      if he calls, we have lower than 40% equity because he fold his worst 40%?
      is it reasonable for an aggro to call 3b as high as 40%?
    • Itsnevereasy
      Itsnevereasy
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.08.2010 Posts: 381
      i see some reg call fishes raise with mid- low Suited aces and crap Kxs.The fish is basically blasting on every streets.Is it actually a good idea to call them with such weak hands?


      In general its a good idea to loosen up your range when the fish makes a lot of mistakes post flop. Position plays a key role though, because if there are players behind, they will squeeze and force you to fold your weaker holding.

      By the way, its usually better to 3bet a loose player's raise so that he can spew all his money when we hit a pair.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,910
      Originally posted by patszerdonk

      So:
      If he folds, we win 4.5 BB 40% of the time.
      If he 4Bets, we lost 8 BB 20 % of the time.
      If he calls, we have 40% equty of 16 BB


      Interesting.

      but:
      if he calls, we have lower than 40% equity because he fold his worst 40%?
      is it reasonable for an aggro to call 3b as high as 40%?
      I think that even aggro-donks fold more than 33% of the time
      I noticed that I used 40% in the calculation, but 33% in the example.

      Also, I forgot to factor in the % of the time he calls.

      So EV:
      4.5 x 0.4= 1.8
      plus
      - 8 x 0.20 = -1.6
      plus
      16 * 0.4 = 6.4 * 0.40 = 2.6
      For a total EV of 2.8 bb

      It would be easy enough to make a spreadsheet, and put in a villains stats, and our equity to see where the truth really lies.

      But consider this:
      Even with these rather loose numbers, you have 0.2 bb +EV even if your equity is 0.

      I must be doing something wrong -- there is an article around for this that I can't find atm. It has something to do with resteals and semi-bluffing I think.

      --VS