Loose aggro isn't the whole story.

Typically they open-raise wide, and come out on the flop with guns blazing.

So if they are raising 30%, 3Bet 10% or more, aggro 8 or more, and CBetting 65% or so, over a couple of hundred hands, just how can they expect anyone to believe that they are getting that many good hands and hitting that many flops?

The question you need to ask is:

What range to I play back with?

Just for laughs I put this into Equilab:

** Equity Win Tie**

**UTG ** 49.42% 47.29% 2.12% { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

**UTG+1** 50.58% 48.46% 2.12% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J9s+, A2o+, K7o+, Q9o+, JTo }

UTG is 33%

I used the hand range calculator to return a range with a minimum 40% equity vs a 33% range.

The UTG+1 range is what came back, and it does even better than 40%

if you 3Bet such a loose reg, can he fold?

If so, how often?

So,

Let's say our loose aggro reg opens 3BB from MP

Let's say he folds only 40% of the time to 3Bet

and let us further assume that he 4Bets 20% of the time -- he is aggro -- and that we will always fold to a 4Bet

We 3Bet 8 BB

So:

If he folds, we win 4.5 BB 33% of the time.

If he 4Bets, we lost 8 BB 20 % of the time.

If he calls, we have 40% equty of 16 BB

Our EV then is:

4.5 x 0.4= 1.8

plus

- 8 x 0.20 = -1.6

plus

16 * 0.4 = 6.4

For a total EV of 6.6 bb

I must have done something wrong -- it can't be THAT good.

It assumes too, that there are no implied odds.

But since there are some suited Ax hands and "Crap kings" in the range, perhaps the regs doing the calling aren't being so dumb.

Sometimes we aren't going to 3Bet/Fold too -- sometimes we'll 3Bet/5Bet but I guess that is taken into consideration in the equity.

Perhaps someone who can do the math better can sort me out here...

Best of luck,

--VS