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NL100 K7s BUbb FD vs c/r flop

    • double2
      double2
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $105.56 (105.6 bb)
      SB: $122.79 (122.8 bb)
      BB: $361.12 (361.1 bb)
      MP: $97 (97 bb)
      CO: $100 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 7 K
      2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

      Flop: ($5) 9 J 2 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $7

      Turn: ($25) 5 (2 players)
      BB bets $18

      20k hands
      25/21/9.1/27
      call $ vs BU open 15%
      raise cbet flop OOP 23%
      bet turn after flop raise 73%
      Agg freq 61/52/36
      WWSF 54%
      W$SD 45%

      Should I call again and bet river vs missed or just ship it right here?
  • 1 reply
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      23% x 15% = 3.5% = combos 46

      Lets assume he's someone balanced and his value to bluff ration is 1:2, therefore 16 value combos, 30 bluff combos.

      This board hits his cold calling range a little harder than a wide BTN opening range so he may have a slightly wider raisnig range.

      This is the cold calling range I gave him.



      Value Raises

      Sets = 99, 22 = 6 combos
      AJs = 3 combos
      AJo = 9 combos
      J9s = 2 combos

      Total value combos = 20 = 2.4%

      Now lets find some bluff raises.

      All gutshots = KTo, KTs, 87s = 20 combos
      All A5s fds and backdoor fds = 7 combos
      88 = 3 ccombos
      98s = 3 combos
      T9s = 3 combos

      Total bluff combos = 39

      Equity of K7s verse this raising range on the flop is 45%.

      Turn

      His barreling range seems fairly normal allowing for a little random deviaton.
      Let's assume he is barreling all his value combos again and on the turn he cuts his bluffs down to a 1 to 1 ratio compared to his value bets.

      So lets say he keeps

      KTs, 4 combos
      All the nut flushes 7 combos
      78s, 4 combos
      and I suppose we'll say he barrels T9s again, 3 combos

      Total combos 18

      Equity here of K7s verse this range is 28% and I'd guess would fall pretty clsoe to the bottom of your range here. So a fold or a raise.

      I suppose it's not a bad hand to raise, because it will get a lot of those Ace high fd's that beat you to fold and has a little bit of equity verse those hands that are already crushing you.