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counting bad beats contra suck outs (Holdem NL), curious?

    • fritsprive
      Joined: 30.08.2013 Posts: 17
      all this talk about bad beats, I am experiencing them also. Out of frustration, I began to count them, but I am trying to do this seriously.

      So, AA that lose against J10 with flop 89K, postflop AA all in and called and turn is the missing 7 is not counted as bad beat but well calculated call by the J10.

      No, i am only counting the situations preflop all ins in one-on-one situation in which you really covered your opponent and still loose.

      Examples (I repeat only counting preflop bad beats!!):
      AA - AK and later 2xK show up.
      KQ- J8 and later Q910 show up.
      77 - 33 and he hits the 3.
      AQ - AJ and he hits the J.

      I am also counting the suck outs to see if there is a balance. In my opinion there should be a statistical balance 50-50 of bad beats with suck outs, if you count them really honestly.

      For now (and just started) 13 bad beats and 4 suck outs. So, am I having bad luck or am I missing something, doing something wrong with counting in this way?

      Please feel free to tell me if I oversee something.
      Thanks, Frits
  • 11 replies
    • metza
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by fritsprive
      I am also counting the suck outs to see if there is a balance. In my opinion there should be a statistical balance 50-50 of bad beats with suck outs, if you count them really honestly.

      For now (and just started) 13 bad beats and 4 suck outs. So, am I having bad luck or am I missing something, doing something wrong with counting in this way?

      Please feel free to tell me if I oversee something.
      Thanks, Frits
      You are overlooking something. The more often you get your money in good, the lower your bad beat to suckout ratio will be. It's a good thing.

      To oversimplify, say you only go all in w AA/KK, but your opponent goes all in with any pocket pair. Sometimes you will get KK vs their AA and will win 18%. But this happens so rarely compared to them getting 22-QQ vs your AA/KK that they will inevitably suckout far more often than you will.

      Oh, and if you are all in on flop w AA vs JT on 89K, that IS a bad beat, and it is also probably not a well calculated call by JT unless he is getting > 2:1 pot odds. And even if he is getting those pot odds, its still a suckout to hit the 7.
    • Hashkan
      Joined: 27.08.2011 Posts: 315
      Hey dude.

      I belive most people that play badly or have not learned the game properly will allways have the thought of online poker beeing rigged in the back of their heads, because we are not so good at seeing the bad sides of ourselfs. We belive we are perfect. I dont say u play badly when u get sucked out, but when u play badly on other hands then get sucked out 3 times in row, u instantly feel like there is no way to win at this game and complain about it beeing rigged.

      If u improve ur game, u will never think that thought again. Its the same for me, i was thinking those thoughts when i was a poor player but i thought i was good.

      Good luck :)
    • justkyle88
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,613
      Hey fritsprive,

      Welcome to and the English community.

      We should be happy when we get it in good. For example, AA vs AK or QQ vs JJ or AQ vs AT.
      No matter how many times we lose when we get the money in the middle with the best hand, we should be fist pumping that our opponents are making mistakes against us.

      It might be disheartening that we lose from time to time but our brain naturally remembers the bad-beats than the times we shoved with QQ, got called by KK and the board went 378TQ.


    • fritsprive
      Joined: 30.08.2013 Posts: 17
      To Kyle,
      thanks for welcoming me.
      I am sorry, but the last part of your comment I do not understand in my case, because that is exactly what I do not want to happen. Therefore I do count my suck outs as well.

      At Haskan, thanks for your comment. Maybe I wasn't clear enough that I don't have the opinion that online poker is rigged, that I am perfect etc.
      I am just surprised by the fact that although I am covering my opponent in a preflop all in situation they still have beaten me badly 13 times and the other way around, I was the underdog, I have only sucked out 4 times.
      In my opinion these numbers (13 against 4) should be much closer to eachother. So why aren't they? Metza gave me the answer!

      At Metza, thanks for sharing your insight with me, I think I understand what you're saying. So, to explain it in my own words:
      If I am tight going all in (only monsters) and my opponents call me with much wider ranges, the absolute number of times they will beat me are higher, whilst I call an all in much tighter, I do not have the possibility to suck out as many times as an underdog as they do, because for reason of my tight calling, most of the cases I'm not the underdog.
      Therefore if I am a tight all inner so to say and a tight caller of all ins, I will always experience much more bad beats than suck outs, because I will almost never be the underdog.
      The state the extreme: if I only go in with AA, I will always experience bad beats and never ever a suck out.

      Thank you very much Metza, you have made it very clear to me and I can sleep well now.

      To finalize my post: realizing that for the big difference in bad beats and suck outs I have, maybe I am to tight going all in and or calling all in.
      So, now I think I should also look at my total of wins of preflop all ins.
      If I win more than 90% of my all ins, I am going all in to tight, because due to statistics and the possible bad beats I should loose at least 20% of the times, maybe even more.

      This means that I should call or go all in more often, because I am folding too much or letting opportunities to double up pass by too much.

      I think i have learned much today :D
    • Hashkan
      Joined: 27.08.2011 Posts: 315
      Gr8 that you got ur question answered and sorry if I misread ur thoughts.
      Good luck :)
    • thazar
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,561
      hey fristprive

      first the thing you need to understand it is not 13 vs 4 that you need to count

      it's 13 out how many times you were ahead in total

      and 4 out of how many time you were behind in total

      so you have a percentage in both case

      but in both case you have such a small sample that it is not representative of anything. IMO you are spending too much time on this rather that concentrating on your game. You cannot change luck you can improve your game.

      finally you can have a quick idea of how good /bad you are running by looking at your ev line and i know all about running bad believe me :D
    • adigator89
      Joined: 17.08.2013 Posts: 13
      I have had many many many bad beats but i cant forget 2 hands which i can never forget.

      I had A 3 and i was big blind.. The guy in the dealer button raise 3 BB and i called it because it was just 2 more to see the flop

      The flop came A A 3 .. and i checked even though i know that i have the nuts in that position..
      The guy pushed all in for around 96 $ ..I made the call to see him having pocket Js

      The turn was J and the river was also a J
      Full house of the flop losing to 4 of a kind Runner runner.. Which i didnt do any damn thing wrong..

      Next was 6,7 of hearts Preflop.. the cards were 6 of clubs,89 of hearts.
      I was like having flush ,straight flush,pair and i was waiting

      Then came the turn ..10 hearts, straight flush and my opponent push me all in for a about 80$ i made a quick call because i have 6,7,(8,910) straight flush

      But then to my shock he had J Q of hearts.
      making him the bigger straight flush amd i didnt play poker for about 2 months ..huh

      I would like to know if someone would have done different than to call all in on both situations ???
    • Hashkan
      Joined: 27.08.2011 Posts: 315
      hahahahahahahahahahahaha lol.

      "The times where preflop raiser shoves 100bb and you have KK thinking YES, I GOT THIS :f_cool: , just to see him turn up AA :f_o: " sooo funny

      I had that runner runner happen to me aswell, was deep in a rebuy tourney 30 000 $ for first place, 48 people left, i am the chip leader of the tourney. I get AA utg 9 handed, I raise, the second chip leader of the tourney calls, flop comes A4Qrainbow, we raise and reraise on flop and get it in, he turns over AQ. I lost ;) for a massive chip lead. I was gonna have 4 times more chips then the second chip leader at the time.
    • gadget51
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      Yes, I agree with thazar,

      Rather than focus on the things you can do little about, focus on the things you can.
      If you work harder on getting better, a few suckouts won't bother you.
      The time they bother me is when I've made a horrendously bad read or play and got lucky, that sucks because I played bad.


    • fritsprive
      Joined: 30.08.2013 Posts: 17
      Hi all there, thanks for all the responses.

      Absolutely right Thazar, need to do it as a percentage and not absolute numbers. And yes, the n is far too little to draw a conclusion. I was only surprised that the deveation was so big with such a small n.

      And Adigator89, thank you for sharing that with me, I know it doesn't make you feel better, but it sure did make me feel better, knowing there are absolutely horrific bad beats out there.
      In my humble opinion, if you don't go all in with a full house or street flush, I really don't know what to go all in with.

      It's the same as that one televised bad beat, quad A against RFd, i don't remember exactly but its all over YT if you want to see it.

      And yes, bad beats / suck outs will always happen.

      So thanks again for all the helpful responses. :)
    • Walshnm
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 272
      Read "The Zen of Poker"

      and then afterwards...

      Ignore the outcome of every pot you play and instead analyse whether or not you made the correct play at the correct time.

      Money will follow :D