Gut feeling

    • WinStrat
      WinStrat
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.12.2011 Posts: 138
      I play mostly MTTs at a recreational level.

      I watched videos and been to some live coaching sessions.

      Sometimes I know the logical +EV play to do. And I know what the coaches would recommend in a particular situation.

      I don't know if it is due to bad variance, but almost every single time I do the right play it backfires on me big time.

      On the other hand I sometime follow my "gut feeling". Even though I know it is not the best way to play the hand. This method yielded much better results than if I follow coaches advice.

      Very strange.
  • 5 replies
    • unshpe
      unshpe
      Basic
      Joined: 20.05.2013 Posts: 294
      You may misunderstand/misuse the "coaches advice", or just be results oriented on a small sample.
    • Asaban
      Asaban
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 22.09.2006 Posts: 8,565
      Originally posted by unshpe
      You may misunderstand/misuse the "coaches advice", or just be results oriented on a small sample.
      True!
      Furthermore you may underestimate the variance in MTT's. Just because something works 5 times in a row it is not automatically a +EV play in the long run. Same thing the other way around obviously.

      Playing according to a gut feeling is a bad idea most of the times. Especially if you know that is it entirely against reasonable play that you learned.

      Regards,
      Asaban
    • WinStrat
      WinStrat
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.12.2011 Posts: 138
      I think variance has a lot to do about how I perceive things.

      I can spot at least 100 hands where I followed logic and made the right play. But I had horrible outcomes in about 95 of them. I know I made the right play because I was ahead when the money went in.

      In a way you can call this a success, but it leaves me thinking maybe I should not follow logic.

      Anyway I make money, but I could be making a LOT more if those logical situations could fall in the realm of normal probabilities.

      Variance should, like the name says, vary. For me it is pretty steady bad for now. Hope it will change soon.
    • sngplayer90
      sngplayer90
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.10.2013 Posts: 23
      You probably only remember the times when you made a play and it went wrong. It's normal to not remember the pots you won as much as the pots you've lost
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      Depends on how good your subconscious is at poker I guess. I find that if I'm going against my gut feeling it means I'm on tilt but I think I train my gut feeling by doing study.
      I believe your subconscious picks up a lot of subtle info that you'd otherwise miss.
      this is in contrast to what a lot of coaches will tell you though so don't take my word for it.
      Either way you should always be able to rationally explain yourself other than just saying 'I had a feeling'