Betting FD in micros.

    • SleepyDog
      SleepyDog
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2013 Posts: 33
      Hi all !

      I'm a beginner so that might be an obvious mistake :

      I'm wondering if betting flush draws at micro stakes (I play PLO2) is profitable. My reasoning behind this is that at these stakes players tend to call a lot so your fold equity is really low compared to higher stakes, so why bet a flush draw and not just take a free card and bet if you hit ?
  • 4 replies
    • SleepyDog
      SleepyDog
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2013 Posts: 33
      Well, I played with numbers, pot odds and such so I'll try and answer my own question and/or add a few more.

      Let's assume that players at micro stakes are quite loose-passive and tend to call more often.

      With only a naked nut FD it makes a lot of sense to check and try to see a cheap turn card to help define or hand because :
      • By betting we would give ourselves bad pot odds to play our FD.
      • Our implied odds that would be extremely low at higher stakes when a flush completes are actually still good at micros because our opponent tend to call a lot more (with lesser hands like straights, sets and lower flushes).

      It's another matter if we have a FD + a made hand (two pairs or better) or a FD + backdoor outs/redraws. Our hand being a lot stronger it might be more profitable to bet a flop and decide the best action on the turn depending on the card that comes, our opponent(s) actions, stacks sizes, etc.

      Basically :
      • The more outs we have the more aggressive we can be regardless of the number of opponents in the hand.
      • The less outs we have the more passive we wanna play our draw especially with two or less players in the hand. (For pot control and pot odds)
      • The more opponents there is in the pot the nuttier we want our outs be.

      I remind you that all this is assuming your opponent(s) are basically loose-passive calling-stations. Adjustments will have to be made with other types of players.
      Is my thinking flawed ? I know it's all basic stuff but I'm sure it can be useful for lots of beginners.

      Here is one of the things I played with this afternoon :



      It's a chart of the number of outs you need to call a bet depending on the number of opponent that call this bet plus the size of the bet. Obviously it's not perfect because you rarely know for sure that they all will call and it doesn't take into considerations implied odds, but I was just playing around. Anyway, here is what I learned :
      • You actually need a LOT of outs to call a bet larger than half pot.
      • I should definitely give up my small draws versus a single opponent.


      What do you think ?
      Of course it would also be interesting to talk about implied odds (being less obvious, straights and sets have more implied odds than flushes for exemple, right ?).
    • Skodljivec
      Skodljivec
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.12.2011 Posts: 5,709
      Hi,

      well if you assume people are calling stations, than they will actually call the river bet as well when u hit your flush, so i see very good implied odds here.

      I think you are way overgenaralizing stuff. Even at plo2 there are some people who can call, and some that can fold. Asking if you should bet a FD is like asking if you should play 7654ss without any extra information.

      Obviously, if you have 0 fold equity, you should never bet your FD. But i really doubt you have 0 fold equity that often, especially by the river if you keep applying pressure.

      Also you should note, that you will flop something to go along with your fd very often if you play an ABC style. It's rare to flop only a FD.

      Regards,

      Skodljivec
    • Kyyberi
      Kyyberi
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 10,511
      Just to open up some discussion, there are spots where you bet your fd even if you know you have 0 folding equity. :)

      In plo you can't just think about how many outs you need, if there are still some chips in the stacks after your call. As there are usually always some implied odds, and most of your calls will rely on implied odds.
    • conall88
      conall88
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      my thought process:

      -position
      -stack size
      - why am I betting?
      - how many outs do I Have?
      - translate this to % to improve.
      - estimate equity vs villains range.
      -evaluate the viability of calling, raising or folding, determine which one has the highest expectation. think about SPR and villain's likely actions.
      -execute the plan
      - :]

      Bare flush draws with no backup only perform well against bare straight draws and bare lower flush draws and we normally prefer to be somewhat deeper than 100bb and have the nut flush draw when we do this. think about villain's range and SPR before deciding what to do.