[NL2-NL10] NL25 sss: T3 offsuit from freeplay

  • 4 replies
    • davidangel
      davidangel
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      Wow, nice spot huh? At first glance you count 12-15 outs, your hand is sure to improve! Problem is there are so many hands a call from the SB could have and the pot odds are only 1.6:1 IF you had the A :spade: it might be a different story... I would still fold here.
    • Puciek
      Puciek
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.01.2008 Posts: 657
      You must put other facts into consideration here also, first that he didn't raise prefloop but merly called which will most likely make ten also an out (higher pair is very unlikly holding for him) so make that around 17 outs. Also he called from MP2 not small blind so we can rule out totaly crap hands, there were 5 players ahead of him to act.
      Now with the floop, i would suspect him on straight or flush draw/made if he didn't overbet the pot (notice, he raised 1$ on 0.6$ pot) so he is definitly scared here, not a play you would do with monster hand, maybe with overpair or trips.
    • davidangel
      davidangel
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      Posible outs: 9 spades, 3 dueces, 3 sevens, 3 tens = 18
      Possible discounted outs: -4 5th highest flush, -1 for low end of 1card str8, -1 for 1card flush draw, -1 for the seven of spades
      At worst that takes you down to 11 outs or 3.5:1 odds. Even with 18 clean outs you are still 2:1 to hit your hand on the turn
      Pot odds are 1.6:1 so unless you are all-in with that bet and will see 2 cards for sure...I would still fold. Call from MP2 at lower limits, without stats his hand could be any 2 cards.
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      Hi Puciek,

      mp2s bet looks like a pocket with no spade, I would just push over his bet to generate max fold equity with your outs this move should be plus ev.