Hi

I am working on BTN strategies vs blinds 3bets in CRev. The simulations involve giving a number for BTN's equity realization (postflop) after BTN called the 3bet.

I am not sure how we can do that. If some of you could look into my stuff and tell me if my methodology is correct/incorrect and why that would be great.

I looked into my DB and filtered for Called 3bet BTNvBlinds then checked how often BTN/Hero faced a cbet and folded on the flop. then on the turn.

1. Is it correct to say that 1 card = 20% of a player's equity?
For example, players realized 60% (3 out of 5 cards) of their equity once they've seen the flop?

2. Flop I considered BTN realizes 100% of his equity when not facing a cbet.
BTN faced flop cbet: 70%.
BTN fold to flop cbet: 50%.

3. Turn
Same for the turn.
BTN faced turn cbet: 50%.
BTN fold to turn cbet: 50%.

4. How much equity is BTN getting denied?
• Flop:
When BTN faces a cbet and folds, he gets denied the remaining 40% (2 out of 5 cards) of his equity. This happens 70%*50% ~ 35%
-> 40%*.35 = -14%

• Turn:
When BTN faces a turn cbet and folds, he gets denied the remaining 20% of his equity. Happens 50%*50% = 25% of the time.
- 5%
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-14% - 5% = -19%
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Total equity realized = 100% - equity denied? i.e. 100-19 = 81% equity realized for BTN?

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5. sample size issues:
for the turn cbet frequency. I would like to check if the sample size is big enough.
I've got 150 situations where Hero/BTN called a 3bet and called a flop cbet (out of a 150k hands database).

Its a binomial distribution as we face a cbet (success) or do not (failure), right?
p = 50%
n = 150

std deviation of binomial = sqrt[ np(1-p) ] = 6.12

95% CI interval = [ 50+/- 1.96*6.12/sqrt(150) ] ~ [49; 51]
This seeems extremely accurate. I would have expected a very wide CI/150 not being a big enough sample - if you could tell me if this is wrong or not.


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6. Caveats:
- Did not include BTN getting c/shoved otf or ott for example.
- The assumption of BTN realizing 100% of his equity after 3bettor checked otf or ott might be too strong?
- Maybe I am being stupid here but, a player does realize 100% of his equity once he got to the river right? Even if he decides to fold to his opponent bet (i.e. equity realization is different than showdown equity realization), no?

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7. Practical guidelines
From your experience/analysis what would rough number be like when it comes to estimating equity realization? Like:
- IP: 80%
- OOP: 70%
Or something similar.

Thanks in advance
Ben