I am working on BTN strategies vs blinds 3bets in CRev. The simulations involve giving a number for BTN's equity realization (postflop) after BTN called the 3bet.

I am not sure how we can do that. If some of you could look into my stuff and tell me if my methodology is correct/incorrect and why that would be great.

I looked into my DB and filtered for Called 3bet BTNvBlinds then checked how often BTN/Hero faced a cbet and folded on the flop. then on the turn.

1. Is it correct to say that 1 card = 20% of a player's equity?
For example, players realized 60% (3 out of 5 cards) of their equity once they've seen the flop?

2. Flop I considered BTN realizes 100% of his equity when not facing a cbet.
BTN faced flop cbet: 70%.
BTN fold to flop cbet: 50%.

3. Turn
Same for the turn.
BTN faced turn cbet: 50%.
BTN fold to turn cbet: 50%.

4. How much equity is BTN getting denied?
• Flop:
When BTN faces a cbet and folds, he gets denied the remaining 40% (2 out of 5 cards) of his equity. This happens 70%*50% ~ 35%
-> 40%*.35 = -14%

• Turn:
When BTN faces a turn cbet and folds, he gets denied the remaining 20% of his equity. Happens 50%*50% = 25% of the time.
- 5%
-14% - 5% = -19%
Total equity realized = 100% - equity denied? i.e. 100-19 = 81% equity realized for BTN?

5. sample size issues:
for the turn cbet frequency. I would like to check if the sample size is big enough.
I've got 150 situations where Hero/BTN called a 3bet and called a flop cbet (out of a 150k hands database).

Its a binomial distribution as we face a cbet (success) or do not (failure), right?
p = 50%
n = 150

std deviation of binomial = sqrt[ np(1-p) ] = 6.12

95% CI interval = [ 50+/- 1.96*6.12/sqrt(150) ] ~ [49; 51]
This seeems extremely accurate. I would have expected a very wide CI/150 not being a big enough sample - if you could tell me if this is wrong or not.

6. Caveats:
- Did not include BTN getting c/shoved otf or ott for example.
- The assumption of BTN realizing 100% of his equity after 3bettor checked otf or ott might be too strong?
- Maybe I am being stupid here but, a player does realize 100% of his equity once he got to the river right? Even if he decides to fold to his opponent bet (i.e. equity realization is different than showdown equity realization), no?

7. Practical guidelines
From your experience/analysis what would rough number be like when it comes to estimating equity realization? Like:
- IP: 80%
- OOP: 70%
Or something similar.

Thanks in advance