so he raises 12% overall.

Although that's a start he may be positionally aware, and opens tighter UTG than BTN etc.

So if he folds 44% to 3Bet (let's assume that is true in all positions), then how much equity to you need to break even?

I'll assume that SB is BB/2, that he open-raises 3BB, and you 3Bet 9 BB

Following his open-raise there are 4.5 BB in the pot.

If he folds 44% of the time, 44 hands out of 100 you win 4.5 BB

So after 100 hands, you've won 0.44 * 4.5 = 1.98 BB

**A**
If you had 0 equity, 56% of the time you lose 9 BB

.56 * 9 = 5.04

**B**
**But** you have more than 0 equity in any hand.

If you divide A by B you get:

1.98/5.04 = 0.39

So if all you have is 39% equity, you can profitably 3Bet his open-raising range.

He open-raises 12%

12% is 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+

Your range of 99+,AQs+,AQo+ has the following equity:

** Equity Win Tie**

**Hero ** 60.92% 58.68% 2.24% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

**UTG+1** 39.08% 36.84% 2.24% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }

So you have WAY more equity than necessary with that range to 3Bet him.

In fact, according to Equilab, your break-even 3Bet range would be:

** Equity Win Tie**

**UTG+1** 59.90% 58.43% 1.47% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }

**Hero ** 40.10% 38.63% 1.47% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J7s+, T7s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+ }

Wow.

So I'm guessing either:

He is getting really good hands a lot

You are running into the top of his range a lot (variance)

Since you're platinum, you might find this article helpful:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/2291/
The focus is on the EV of stealing, but it applies to this situation too, I think.

This one might apply too.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1725/
Disclaimer:

Please check my math!

Other considerations:

I mentioned position -- do you have RFI in your HUD? If not it may be useful. Or, you can use the default preflop pop-up (HM2) I added the RFI numbers to that popup. Fold to 3Bet by position is already there.

Sample size. Without a few hundred hands, going by stats is problematic.

Best of luck,

--VS