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Wee another MSS problem

    • Evante
      Evante
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2009 Posts: 833
      And so there is one MSS with a stats of

      14/12
      6.7% 3bet, 11% fold to 4bet

      44% fold to 3bet, 30% call 3bet,
      26% 4bet 4.7% 4bet range


      And So i been using AQ+,99+ range to go broke vs him but seems that always i always ram my AQ into AK+,QQ+ and my 99,TT into higher pairs.

      It is just variance or is there some leaks in my gameplan vs him?


      Saw him a few times Restealed with KJ+ and 88 went broke.


      Any advice?
  • 4 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,754
      so he raises 12% overall.
      Although that's a start he may be positionally aware, and opens tighter UTG than BTN etc.

      So if he folds 44% to 3Bet (let's assume that is true in all positions), then how much equity to you need to break even?

      I'll assume that SB is BB/2, that he open-raises 3BB, and you 3Bet 9 BB

      Following his open-raise there are 4.5 BB in the pot.
      If he folds 44% of the time, 44 hands out of 100 you win 4.5 BB
      So after 100 hands, you've won 0.44 * 4.5 = 1.98 BB A

      If you had 0 equity, 56% of the time you lose 9 BB
      .56 * 9 = 5.04 B

      But you have more than 0 equity in any hand.
      If you divide A by B you get:
      1.98/5.04 = 0.39

      So if all you have is 39% equity, you can profitably 3Bet his open-raising range.

      He open-raises 12%
      12% is 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+
      Your range of 99+,AQs+,AQo+ has the following equity:


             Equity     Win     Tie
      Hero   60.92%  58.68%   2.24% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
      UTG+1  39.08%  36.84%   2.24% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }


      So you have WAY more equity than necessary with that range to 3Bet him.
      In fact, according to Equilab, your break-even 3Bet range would be:


             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG+1  59.90%  58.43%   1.47% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
      Hero   40.10%  38.63%   1.47% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J7s+, T7s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+ }


      Wow.

      So I'm guessing either:
        He is getting really good hands a lot :D
        You are running into the top of his range a lot (variance)

      Since you're platinum, you might find this article helpful:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/2291/
      The focus is on the EV of stealing, but it applies to this situation too, I think.

      This one might apply too.
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1725/

      Disclaimer:
      Please check my math!

      Other considerations:
        I mentioned position -- do you have RFI in your HUD? If not it may be useful. Or, you can use the default preflop pop-up (HM2) I added the RFI numbers to that popup. Fold to 3Bet by position is already there.
        Sample size. Without a few hundred hands, going by stats is problematic.

      Best of luck,
      --VS
    • Evante
      Evante
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2009 Posts: 833
      sir thanks for the reply

      erm

      Sorry, I have a weak fundamental on mathematics, why and how we can divide A and B?


      Lets say that MSS opens at 2.5 BB and i 3bet at 6BB

      Thus I am using 6BB to steal 4BB.

      What % of hands he must fold in order for my move to break even?
    • Evante
      Evante
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2009 Posts: 833
      ok got it,

      I have to be 60% successful to break even my play.

      thus lets say i always go broke with my hand when I 3bet,

      As long My hand EV is 41% vs his 4bet/broke range, I will be earning 1% edge (minus the rake)

      Am I right to say that?
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 10,754
      Originally posted by Evante
      ok got it,

      I have to be 60% successful to break even my play.

      thus lets say i always go broke with my hand when I 3bet,

      As long My hand EV is 41% vs his 4bet/broke range, I will be earning 1% edge (minus the rake)

      Am I right to say that?
      I sat down and played with this formula this morning.

      There is an easy formula to figure out the break-even fold-to-3Bet required if you have 0 equity.

      Required FoldTo3Bet (R) = Bet/(Pot + Bet)
      So using the original example:
      R = 6/(4.5+6) = 57.1
      So yeah, if he folds 60% to 3Bet, you can 3Bet him all day.

      I could not come up with such a simple formula for calculating the required equity if his FoldTo3Bet is LESS than the number calculated above.

      I think that there may be calculus involved -- or voodoo (which amounts to about the same thing). If it requires animal sacrifice, then I'm outta here.

      I did come up with a complicated one, though.
      In the following formula,
      F is known actual fold to 3Bet value for this villain in this situation
      P is the Pot size before you bet
      B is your bet amount.

      The hand Equity E required =
      1 - ( P * F / (B * (1- F)))

      In our example:
      P = 4.5
      B = 6
      Let's say in this case villains Fold to 3Bet is 45%

      So the Equity you need to be break even when called is:
      1- (4.5 * .45 / ( 6 * ( 1 - .45 )))
      1 - ( 2.025 / ( 6 * ( .55 )))
      1 - ( 2.025 / 3.3 )
      1 - 0.614
      0.39

      I emphasize when called, because you have to do the same all over again for 4Bet: Pot / (Bet + Pot) etc

      I am *sure* that all of this is covered in an article, but I'm danged if I can find it.

      Best of luck,
      --VS