# Wee another MSS problem

• Bronze
Joined: 07.12.2009
And so there is one MSS with a stats of

14/12
6.7% 3bet, 11% fold to 4bet

44% fold to 3bet, 30% call 3bet,
26% 4bet 4.7% 4bet range

And So i been using AQ+,99+ range to go broke vs him but seems that always i always ram my AQ into AK+,QQ+ and my 99,TT into higher pairs.

It is just variance or is there some leaks in my gameplan vs him?

Saw him a few times Restealed with KJ+ and 88 went broke.

• 4 replies
• Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined: 02.09.2010
so he raises 12% overall.
Although that's a start he may be positionally aware, and opens tighter UTG than BTN etc.

So if he folds 44% to 3Bet (let's assume that is true in all positions), then how much equity to you need to break even?

I'll assume that SB is BB/2, that he open-raises 3BB, and you 3Bet 9 BB

Following his open-raise there are 4.5 BB in the pot.
If he folds 44% of the time, 44 hands out of 100 you win 4.5 BB
So after 100 hands, you've won 0.44 * 4.5 = 1.98 BB A

If you had 0 equity, 56% of the time you lose 9 BB
.56 * 9 = 5.04 B

But you have more than 0 equity in any hand.
If you divide A by B you get:
1.98/5.04 = 0.39

So if all you have is 39% equity, you can profitably 3Bet his open-raising range.

He open-raises 12%
12% is 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+
Your range of 99+,AQs+,AQo+ has the following equity:

Equity     Win     Tie
Hero   60.92%  58.68%   2.24% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
UTG+1  39.08%  36.84%   2.24% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }

So you have WAY more equity than necessary with that range to 3Bet him.
In fact, according to Equilab, your break-even 3Bet range would be:

Equity     Win     Tie
UTG+1  59.90%  58.43%   1.47% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hero   40.10%  38.63%   1.47% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J7s+, T7s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+ }

Wow.

So I'm guessing either:
He is getting really good hands a lot
You are running into the top of his range a lot (variance)

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/2291/
The focus is on the EV of stealing, but it applies to this situation too, I think.

This one might apply too.
http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1725/

Disclaimer:

Other considerations:
I mentioned position -- do you have RFI in your HUD? If not it may be useful. Or, you can use the default preflop pop-up (HM2) I added the RFI numbers to that popup. Fold to 3Bet by position is already there.
Sample size. Without a few hundred hands, going by stats is problematic.

Best of luck,
--VS
• Bronze
Joined: 07.12.2009

erm

Sorry, I have a weak fundamental on mathematics, why and how we can divide A and B?

Lets say that MSS opens at 2.5 BB and i 3bet at 6BB

Thus I am using 6BB to steal 4BB.

What % of hands he must fold in order for my move to break even?
• Bronze
Joined: 07.12.2009
ok got it,

I have to be 60% successful to break even my play.

thus lets say i always go broke with my hand when I 3bet,

As long My hand EV is 41% vs his 4bet/broke range, I will be earning 1% edge (minus the rake)

Am I right to say that?
• Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined: 02.09.2010
Originally posted by Evante
ok got it,

I have to be 60% successful to break even my play.

thus lets say i always go broke with my hand when I 3bet,

As long My hand EV is 41% vs his 4bet/broke range, I will be earning 1% edge (minus the rake)

Am I right to say that?
I sat down and played with this formula this morning.

There is an easy formula to figure out the break-even fold-to-3Bet required if you have 0 equity.

Required FoldTo3Bet (R) = Bet/(Pot + Bet)
So using the original example:
R = 6/(4.5+6) = 57.1
So yeah, if he folds 60% to 3Bet, you can 3Bet him all day.

I could not come up with such a simple formula for calculating the required equity if his FoldTo3Bet is LESS than the number calculated above.

I think that there may be calculus involved -- or voodoo (which amounts to about the same thing). If it requires animal sacrifice, then I'm outta here.

I did come up with a complicated one, though.
In the following formula,
F is known actual fold to 3Bet value for this villain in this situation
P is the Pot size before you bet

The hand Equity E required =
1 - ( P * F / (B * (1- F)))

In our example:
P = 4.5
B = 6
Let's say in this case villains Fold to 3Bet is 45%

So the Equity you need to be break even when called is:
1- (4.5 * .45 / ( 6 * ( 1 - .45 )))
1 - ( 2.025 / ( 6 * ( .55 )))
1 - ( 2.025 / 3.3 )
1 - 0.614
0.39

I emphasize when called, because you have to do the same all over again for 4Bet: Pot / (Bet + Pot) etc

I am *sure* that all of this is covered in an article, but I'm danged if I can find it.

Best of luck,
--VS