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EV -vs- Pwnage

    • poompah
      Joined: 26.12.2011 Posts: 118
      This is probably a question that has been asked before -- so if anyone knows please redirect me to the relevant thread.

      We have KK in the BB and 3bet a LAG who has raised in the CO.

      LAG has positional PFR of 30% and calls about 50% of the time to a 3bet.
      His/her/its calling range will be something like A8s+,ATo+,44+, 76+,all sooted broadways,KQo,QJo,JTo (or fairly similar).
      He/she/it is capable of making moves on scary boards.

      Flop: AA2

      Equilab says we have EV of around 70% -- the precise value depends on just how many Aces LAG calls with -- everything else we are miles ahead of.

      Remove AA/KK/AK from his range as he 4bets/shoves these PF -- our EV is now 75%.

      Given that we only get value from worse pairs, and are crushed by all his Aces (and he never folds those, clearly) -- what should we do here?

      Check-calling can get him to bet his (worse) PP -- but also his Aces with impunity.
      Check-raising looks dumb and gets us pot-committed is a horrible spot.
      Given he will call a cbet with a lot of his hands, including his Aces -- we are merely postponing a tough decision 1 street.

      Thoughts on this appreciated -- because I am lost for a viable strategy bar check-fold (wait for a better spot) or open-shove (take an EV-based action but one which gets folds from all worse and calls from all better, bar perhaps QQ-TT).

      Same problem but with JJ -- we have 65% EV -- but is it really any different?
  • 1 reply
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,020
      first off, this is a much better flop than A22. in any case, what to do is rly opponent dependant.

      against someone who i perceive as a LAG i'm probably not folding, but even then it'd still depend of how much he folds/how much he floats.
      all lines are possible, you can c/c for stacks (let him spew his stack off with random air), or bet/bet for value (he won't believe you and will call with pp), or bet and c/c turn (catch random backdoor floats)...

      his line with pp is probably to just check it down and realize sd value, maybe just fire a small protection bet on the flop in order to make you fold broadways.
      that is also a point in as to why KK is better than JJ - with KK you aren't afraid of any overcards coming in the next streets.