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    • Affluenza
      Affluenza
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2012 Posts: 19
      Hi guys, I dont understand the Net won and $EV 100% can someone explain the two figures below please?
      I am $-40 in EV.... so I should be winning more than I am right?

  • 8 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,904
      Originally posted by Affluenza
      Hi guys, I dont understand the Net won and $EV 100% can someone explain the two figures below please?
      I am $-40 in EV.... so I should be winning more than I am right?

      Hi, Affluenza
      EV numbers are SO misleading.
      As I understand it, they are based on all-ins.

      Basically it works like so:
      If you are running below EV, you have been unlucky at all-ins more times than you have been lucky. EV + or - says nothing about the quality of your play.

      If you get AA on the bubble, shove, and everyone folds, it does nothing for your EV line. If you do the same thing w/ 72o same thing -- you win, buy EV is never determined since we have no idea what anyone else's hole cards are.

      If you win w/ AA vs 72o you will show as running ABOVE EV since your equity is 80 % but you won 100 % of the pot.

      If you have AKo and lose a flip to 88, you will be running way below EV, since your equity is 45% or so, but you won 0.

      Do that a few times and it can make it look like you're really, really running bad, when in fact you're not. Those "flips" might have been perfectly correct ICM shoves.

      Best of luck,
      --VS
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,923
      Thank you Vorpal :)

      Is everything clear now Affluenza?
    • Affluenza
      Affluenza
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2012 Posts: 19
      TY! Yeah everything is clear now.
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,923
      Great! :)

      Don't hesitate to ask any further questions should they arise as well.

      Hope you have a great weekend!
    • pokerplayerplayer18
      pokerplayerplayer18
      Basic
      Joined: 18.10.2013 Posts: 7
      how often should we look at ev? some people say to me ignore it whereas some say its EVERYTHING!
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,904
      Hi, pokerplayerplayer18
      Well, I'm an "ignore it" guy

      It is supposed to give you a reading on how well you're running.
      But poker is not a game of luck.

      If anyone can tell me how the EV line (or EV difference ) can help me make better decisions at the table, or tell me how the EV line helps my analyse my sessions, then maybe I'll change my mind.

      Do those who say it is "everything" say why it is everything?

      Peace,
      --VS
    • ArkhamAsylum
      ArkhamAsylum
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.09.2011 Posts: 527
      I thought expected value was an indication on my decision making, sometimes you can be in profit for sessions and your ev in the negative which can tell if I am making mistakes in certain spots and it I just got lucky. From years ago working off memory I kind of remember looking at spots I was plus EV and did I make the right calls and why. More importantly when I was -EV did I fully understand the hand and used to go over it to see did I make the best assumption based on what I had. More often that not, I found out it was me just wishing they had the hands I put them on xD to make it plus EV for me to raise, call yada yada.

      Sometimes you will run below expected value but made the right calls and it just did not work. But that will give you heart the cards just did not fall your way and keep doing what your doing. Or maybe I am talking nonsense. :f_eek: wouldn't be the first time I have been accused of it :f_biggrin:
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,904
      Originally posted by ArkhamAsylum
      I thought expected value was an indication on my decision making, sometimes you can be in profit for sessions and your ev in the negative which can tell if I am making mistakes in certain spots and it I just got lucky.
      The EV line compares the equities of the hands at the point either player goes all-in. I don't know how it works if it is multi-way and not all players are all-in.

      This might give you an indication of how your decision making relates to ranges and relative hand value. It won't help you at all if you want to evaluate your ability to makes decisions based on the other players' habits and tendencies etc.

      But more than that, I think it distorts things long term.

      Let's take a look at QQ vs AKo

             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    43.24%  43.03%   0.21% { AKo }
      UTG+1  56.76%  56.55%   0.21% { QQ }


      If villain hits an A or a K you get 0, but your EV was 57%
      So you show that you are "way below" EV, but in reality it was "close"

      Now imagine that over 10K hands you lose 55% of your flips, but are still in profit.

      What decisions could you change -- based on your EV line -- that would be beneficial?

      There are a lot more things to look at that are most definitely helpful.

      But perhaps I just don't understand EV well enough to use it properly.

      Best of luck,
      --VS