turn bet sizing when draws complete?

    • mkjmkjmkj
      mkjmkjmkj
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 159
      how should i size my bet on turn/ river when draws complete
      with hands like tptk overpair twopair.
      if a flush completes a lot of the worse hands we bet against will be more inclined to fold
      but you also want him to pay to draw against the 4 flush. And you might not be shure if a small bet induces a bluff.

      is it generally better to bet big or small in those situations?
      what considerations do you take into account on wether to bet big or small in those situiations?
  • 6 replies
    • unshpe
      unshpe
      Basic
      Joined: 20.05.2013 Posts: 294
      The real question is : "How many flushes does he have in his range? " . You have a brain for the next actions.
    • mkjmkjmkj
      mkjmkjmkj
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 159
      we clearly still have valuebet with our hands no matter if calls all his flussdraws and never raises them on the flop so i dont think its a big consideration unless you know he raises his draws on the flop and know you can induce a raise with a small bet on the turn.

      im not totally sure if you mean that if we know that he dont have many flushes then we can bet small because we are not afraid of raises and we can target wider range with our bet?

      is that what you meant by how many flushes he have on the turn is the question?
    • spreeboy
      spreeboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.09.2010 Posts: 223
      Originally posted by mkjmkjmkj
      we clearly still have valuebet with our hands no matter if calls all his flussdraws and never raises them on the flop so i dont think its a big consideration unless you know he raises his draws on the flop and know you can induce a raise with a small bet on the turn.
      If we second barrel the turn with TPTK between 50-100% potsize and villain re-raises, we are still in a tough spot even if he only re-raises minimum. So our "reads" will serve as well than our "betsize" on spots like this where the turn card completes lots of draws.

      Therefore, we need to know as soon as possible how people play hands on the flop like their draws, sets, 2 pairs on wet/dry board, A high etc. If I have TPTK versus unknown on a wet board, I tend to pot control and may take a check/call turn and check/call river line OOP if the pot is not too big (ex. villain uses half pot bets). Ofc this line is not optimal since we are giving him a good chance to catch his draws, but the purpose of this is to have a "baseline" read of how he plays after we see his hand at showdown.
    • mkjmkjmkj
      mkjmkjmkj
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 159
      but im mostly asking if we should bet small because we want be called by worse hands that would fold to a big bet because villain is affraid of the flush or if its better to bet big to charge draws.
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by mkjmkjmkj
      but im mostly asking if we should bet small because we want be called by worse hands that would fold to a big bet because villain is affraid of the flush or if its better to bet big to charge draws.
      It will be very opponent dependent but basically you just have to assess how their range looks on the turn vs different bet sizes.

      Just to give an example

      Say you have 2pair and pot is 25bb on the turn, and villain called flop w lets say 120 combos of hands, some of which are pairs, some of which are drawing. Let's assume he doesn't raise the draws he's hit and just calls to make things simpler.

      When villain folds you win 25bb, when he calls a worse hand you win 25+Xbb and when he calls a better hand you lose Xbb. Where Xbb is your betsize in bb

      Betting 6bb lets say he calls 95/120 combos, 12 of which beat you.
      Villain folds 25, loses 83 and wins 12 combos.
      (25/120)*25+(83/120)*31-(12/120)*6
      On average betting 6bb wins you 26.05bb against this range

      Betting 12bb he might call 64/120 combos, 12 of which beat you.
      Villain folds 56, loses 52 and wins 12 combos.
      (56/120)*25+(52/120)*37-(12/120)*12
      On average betting 12bb wins you 26.5bb against this range

      Betting 25bb he might call 32/120 combos, 12 of which beat you.
      Villain folds 87, loses 20 and wins 12 combos.
      (87/120)*25+(20/120)*50-(12/120)*25
      On average betting 25bb wins you 23.9bb against this range

      This is ignoring what may happen on the river also, because this complicates things a lot.

      Vs any opponent they will have different calling ranges vs different bet sizes. Some opponents will call the same amount of hands regardless of the bet sizes.
      Obviously you can't do this in-game, but looking at these spots with assumptions about ranges can help you to understand how to play against certain opponents in certain spots, and once you know this, you can extrapolate from these calculations in similar spots.
    • mkjmkjmkj
      mkjmkjmkj
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 159
      but isnt it to simple to divide it in hands that beat you and hands you beat.
      since a draws might have 20% or more against your hand so even if you bet big you only win 80% of the time or less. But if you bet small you might get a hand with 0-10% equity to call you.

      i know if i make some assumptions about villains calling range it just to make an EV calculation to figure out whats best but i want to know how other people see this sitiuations what assumption do other people have.

      maybe i should just find some specific hands and post the in the hand evaluation and ask about turn betsizing and villains assumed calling range vs different sizes