A few questions.

    • sc2zerker
      sc2zerker
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2012 Posts: 162
      Got a few questions. Please help!

      Let's start with an example.

      Example#1

      Your hand = (4 :heart: , 5 :heart:)
      The flop = (Q :heart: , 7 :spade: , 2 :heart:)

      So from my point of view it looks like this (at least in my head)

      2 :heart: , 4 :heart: , 5 :heart: , 7 :spade: , Q :heart:

      My understanding of the situation.

      You have hit a flush draw, Any heart will make a flush for you. You have 2 chances. A turn, A river to hit your draw. You can use the rule of 2 and 4, you count your odds.

      2x9, hit on the turn. = 18% chance to hit flush
      4x9, hit on the river. = 36% chance to hit flush

      So, for example, if someone all ins you. You would have a 36% chance to hit your flush and win (assuming he isn't trying to hit a flush that beats your flush) You compare your pot odds, If pot is 2000, You need to call 500, You would have 4:1 pot odds(20%) odds compared to your 3:1 hand odds(33%) (if) your hand odds are greater than the pots odds, you call. In this case we would call because it would be profitable.

      hand odds > pot odds = profitable play
      hand 3:1(33%) > pot 4:1(20%) = Profit

      Question #1

      A straight draw is not yet possible, but might become possible if we hit a 3 or a 6 on the turn. So it would only be x2 at best. Do we only count for the flush draw, or do we stop and start to think about the possibility of a straight?

      (simply say we don't have straight draw yet, there for we only count the flush draw)

      Question #2

      We would have 8 outs to hit a straight draw, So a straight would only be possible on the river. So we have 16% chance to hit a draw, Then another 16% chance to hit that draw. The math I would do is,

      16% x 16% = 2.5%, So on the flop we have a 2.5% chance of hitting a straight with our hand, which could count for an addiotional out. 2.5% = 1.25outs (rounded to 1 out)

      So there you have it, We have 9 outs because of the flush, but 10 out because of the straight. Do we count 9 or 10 out in this situation?

      Question #3 One step further.

      We can also hit double 4's, or double 5,s to make a set or 2 pair. making another monster hand. Since there are 3 4's and 3 5's on the river We can say, hitting a 4 and a 5 makes a monster hand(two pair) and hitting 2 5's or 2 4's makes a monster hand(a set). To hit 2 4's would be 3x2 =6% x 6% = 0.3% chance, Same with 2 5's = 0.3% chance and a 4 and a 5 would be roughly 0.3% chance as well. Giving us a 1% chance of hitting 2 pair or a set.

      So 1% is 1/2 an out. Do we have 10.5 out now? We orginally started with 9 outs, giving us 36%, now we have 10.5 out giving us 42% it's a whole 6% more now.

      (please check my math, i'm not 100% sure it's accurate. It looked good on paper but it might not translate well because of a variable i'm not looking at.)

      Question #4

      If i have this hand, I can easily give it 36%(from the flush draw) +3% for straight and 1% for the two pair and set's giving me a quick 40% instead of the 36%. You can do that in under a second just seeing the cards. Which I can use in my multi-tables. (straight possible by river= 3%, two pair, set possible by river = additional 1%, giving me 4% more, givign me 40% 5:2 odds not rounded down 36% 3:1 odds)

      Should I add these percent while making calls or not? I mean they are simply added bonuses and give me a better hand % not better pot odds, but in return i can call more hands. Which might be a good thing if i have the right percent but might be a bad thing because now i'm calling more hands risky more money because i simply had a few addiontal %

      Additional comments.

      The whole reason i made this post is because at the tables I get flustered, I see a hand like this, I see all the possibilities and i'm quite sure the correct course of action is. This almost always ends up with me making a snap choice, and snap choices to call, or fold can very easily lead to a lose in profit.

      Also i posted this is the beginner section because I'm a newb @ poker (as i've been playing for 2 weeks. If this is a more advanced question feel free to move it.
  • 8 replies
    • legand73
      legand73
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2010 Posts: 4,135
      Hey sc3serker

      You're starting to grasp how extensive these calculations get when considering these all in situations. In Q1 it is good to start considering your backdoor draw (or runner-runner) outs yes but it is important to ask yourself whether it would give you the best hand or not.

      For Q2 if you think that the straight would be the best hand then you can count your two back door outs as one out sure.

      For Q3 we need to think about giving villain a hand range for going all in because then this could tell us whether or not our outs are clean or not. This analysis looks fine against a hand like AA for example without a :heart: but then villain has more than just overpairs or top pairs in his range. and yes aside from higher flush draws we also have to consider sets and two pairs, hands like QQ, 77, 22, Q2s say in which case our runner runner two pair and three of a kind might not be good.

      I know what you mean about getting flustered at the tables. It's difficult to make a close decision with like 15 seconds or whatever. At any rate I advise you become acquainted with our hand evaluation forums and this software here. the Equilab

      Both are great tools to improve our intuition in these kinds of spots
    • sc2zerker
      sc2zerker
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2012 Posts: 162
      Tried to download equilab @ http://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-tools/equilab-holdem/

      Keep getting this error

      Not found (error to origin)
    • legand73
      legand73
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2010 Posts: 4,135
      mm that's bizarre it works fine for me. Try at the bottom of this page

      it's a really useful tool I hope you enjoy using it
    • sc2zerker
      sc2zerker
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2012 Posts: 162
      Seems to be downloading now. My ISP is having issues today, it's most likely on my end. Thanks for all your help. I didn't even know back door draws existed up until today. It was just a thought i had in my head. It's awesome to know theirs a name given to it.
    • legand73
      legand73
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2010 Posts: 4,135
      it's good to see you thinking about concepts ahead of finding out about them. Definitely a promising sign
    • legand73
      legand73
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2010 Posts: 4,135
      Oh btw have you heard of or seen our beginner's course? It's a great structured course but more importantly if you have other questions like the above ones you can get answers from a coach: Bogdan, he's the man and his answers will be way better than mine.

      Hope you don't feel i'm spamming you with links but there's so much good stuff on this site. Anyway all the best
    • sc2zerker
      sc2zerker
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2012 Posts: 162
      no definitely not, Thanks for all the help and advice man.
    • legand73
      legand73
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2010 Posts: 4,135
      no problem. enjoy