Check my Maths time

    • Evante
      Evante
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2009 Posts: 833
      Before I start i want to apologise to VorpalF2F as you helped me alot but I my tiny brain can't understand those complicated maths



      Assumption 1: All MSS have a go broke range of AQ+, 99+

      Assumption 2: All MSS have to go broke after he/she 4bets


      Case 1:

      Lets say MSS open for 3BB and I 3bet to 9 BB

      Thus the Maths behind this will be:


      9BB to win 13.5BB (His Bet + My Bet + Blinds)

      9BB / 13.5BB = 66% I have to be successful to break even


      Case 2:

      Villain decide to 4bet 18BB (which technically put him all in)

      Thus the Maths:


      31BB to win 81.5BB (His Stack + My Stack + Blinds)

      31BB / 81.5BB = 38% EV


      This means If my Hand has minimum of 38% EV vs his Range, I have to call to break even in a long run (without calculating the rake)

      Thus if I 3bet with AJ, I can have fold because vs his go broke range, I only have 30% Equity


      Case 3 (same as Case 2 but with rake involved):

      Villain decide to 4bet 18BB (which technically put him all in)

      Thus the Maths:


      31BB to win 77.5BB (His Stack + My Stack + Blinds - Rake of 4 BB)

      31BB / 77.5BB = 40% EV


      This means If my Hand has minimum of 40% EV vs his Range, I have to call to break even in a long run.

      Thus if I 3bet with AQ, I have to fold it because AQ vs his go broke range, I only have 36% Equity




      Thank you for your time.

      Are my equation correct?

      And thus in the future with AQ,AJ I have to fold since I have such bad Equity
  • 4 replies
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,915
      I had a quick look, but I won't have the time to go over in detail until Monday.

      Perhaps one of the other members can have a look.

      In the meantime, have a look at this article:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1725/

      I think that it has the explanations you need.

      Best of luck,
      --VS
    • lnternet
      lnternet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      it's all correct as far as I can tell

      In Case 3, you should account for rakeback as well when you account for rake, as 4bb is 5% uncapped, and when there is this much rake you better get some back :D

      If you can't stack off AJ/AQ you should probably just call the open raise.
    • Evante
      Evante
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2009 Posts: 833
      Internet Sir,

      But i was once told by some coach that unless the Regs or MSS has at least 15% open, it is better just to fold with AJ.

      Thats why i rather turn AJ into a so called "bluff"

      Do you agree with me to turn AJ into a bluff??
    • lnternet
      lnternet
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      The 15% is a bit arbitrary, but the idea is good, if the range is too tight you can't call. But if you can't call the open then you surely can never ever call the 4bet!

      If you can cold call depends how many people are behind (because getting squeezed is very bad for the EV of calling) as well as your position (IP better than OOP) and blinds (cheaper call is better)

      Against 15% UT range I would
      fold MP (too weak for call or 3bet)
      3bet CO (too weak to call)
      call BT (just strong enough to call)
      fold SB (too weak)
      call BB (good odds, always call BB)

      (not saying this is 100% perfect, just to get the idea across)