With 40% vs. a Callingtange +EV push ???

    • jonzocker
      jonzocker
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2011 Posts: 715
      Hi

      I have a Problem with the following example:

      We are HU on the River oop, and have Ps left. We know, that we have 40% vs. Villains Callingrange, but we don´t know, what he is betting, or checkbehind, if we check. So we do not know if a x/call or a x/f ist +EV/-EV. So please do not focus on differnt lines/betsizes then pushing, because it is not important for my question :) ...

      I think a Push is +EV even, if we do NOT have any FE and know, that we do NOT have >50% Equity vs his Callingrange. I think I can prove it with this calculation:

      We have 10$ left in a 10$ Pot, so :

      EV(fold) = 0

      EV(push) = 0,4* 20 - 0,6 *10 = +2

      Thats why I think, pushing has a higher EV than folding, because folding is obv 0EV, even if it wouldn´t make sense. So:

      EV(push)> EV(fold)
      => EV(push)> 0EV
      => EV(push) = +EV

      A friend of mine do not agree with me, because he says, that it can not be +EV, when we invest more money without having > 50% Equity vs his Callingrange.

      I know, that this is a very theoretically example and it will never occur like this in game, but please just dicuss my question, if a push is +EV or not!

      I hope some of you guys can helb me and show me if I am wrong or right.

      Thank you very much,
      Cheers Jonas
  • 3 replies
    • Evante
      Evante
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2009 Posts: 833
      hmm, let me have my take.

      I think it is very hard to just say like that.

      we have to see how scary the board is,what happened during flop turn and how your opponent behaves.

      I don't think we can plug a random % out of no where.

      We have to get his perceived range, and decide what hands will fold and stuff then we can find out % of hands he is going to fold
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by jonzocker
      A friend of mine do not agree with me, because he says, that it can not be +EV, when we invest more money without having > 50% Equity vs his Callingrange.
      Hi,

      Your friend is wrong because he is not factoring in the dead money already in the pot. Say if we have 40% equity and overbet 40bb into 20bb pot, and opponent calls, in the long run we get 40bb back (win 100bb pot 40% of the time), so our bet is breakeven in terms of EV despite having less than 50% equity.

      However, in order to "value bet" a hand we need to get called over 50% of the time by worse. This mainly applies on the river when equities and therefore the winning hand, is not going to change. Betting without getting called by worse over 50% of the time can still be +EV though. But it is important to consider that sometimes checking will have higher EV (often the case IP since we can open up the betting again and sometimes be bluffed off the best hand by checkraises), and even when two options are +EV it is still bad to take +EV action that is not the highest possible EV. Obviously in game its hard to know what is highest, but thats why analysing hands is so beneficial.
    • jonzocker
      jonzocker
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2011 Posts: 715
      Hi

      thx for your answers...


      we have to see how scary the board is,what happened during flop turn and how your opponent behaves.

      I don't think we can plug a random % out of no where.

      We have to get his perceived range, and decide what hands will fold and stuff then we can find out % of hands he is going to fold


      Ok, as I said it does NOT matter,


      I know, that this is a very theoretically example and it will never occur like this in game, but please just dicuss my question, if a push is +EV or not!


      We know, that we have 40% vs his callingrange and have no FE. We do not need to know, what the board looks like, or what he is checking behind for my question, because I just want to know, if it is +EV to push under this points.



      Hi,

      Your friend is wrong because he is not factoring in the dead money already in the pot. Say if we have 40% equity and overbet 40bb into 20bb pot, and opponent calls, in the long run we get 40bb back (win 100bb pot 40% of the time), so our bet is breakeven in terms of EV despite having less than 50% equity.

      However, in order to "value bet" a hand we need to get called over 50% of the time by worse. This mainly applies on the river when equities and therefore the winning hand, is not going to change. Betting without getting called by worse over 50% of the time can still be +EV though. But it is important to consider that sometimes checking will have higher EV (often the case IP since we can open up the betting again and sometimes be bluffed off the best hand by checkraises), and even when two options are +EV it is still bad to take +EV action that is not the highest possible EV. Obviously in game its hard to know what is highest, but thats why analysing hands is so beneficial.


      Thanks, I think, my thoughts are similarly. But as I said, even if a check has an higher EV it is not importend. Of course in game we are facing nearly never a situations under this points, but I am only interested in the answer to my question.. ;)