Afraid to shove river for fear of not getting called?

    • maca1214
      maca1214
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.07.2013 Posts: 74
      Hi. I might be losing lots of value by not shoving rivers enough.
      My thinking is I should bet what I think I'll get called, shoving is an overbet and
      villain may not call because he/she is good. Should I get this out of my head and shove nuts on rivers even as overbets against all opponents because maybe the times they do call will make it more proiftable?

      Below I would have to bet 4.22 into 1.77 on river so its a huge overbet.

      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $12.03 (240.6 bb)
      SB: $8.47 (169.4 bb)
      BB: $5 (100 bb)
      UTG: $10.92 (218.4 bb)
      MP: $12.71 (254.2 bb)
      Hero (CO): $5.07 (101.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 6 7
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.37) 2 5 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.20, BTN calls $0.20

      Turn: ($0.77) 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

      River: ($1.77) 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1, BTN calls $1

      Results:
      $3.77 pot ($0.16 rake)
      Final Board: 2 5 9 8 3
      BTN mucked T T and lost (-$1.85 net)
      Hero showed 6 7 and won $3.61 ($1.76 net)
  • 9 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      bet larger on every street, and pot the river. you don't need to get all the money in, but you certainly lost a lot of value.
    • SheepMoose
      SheepMoose
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2009 Posts: 854
      Betting $4 into a nearly $2 is stupid, unless the person is one of the biggest fish you've ever encountered.

      But, if villain intends to call the river, he's going to call it whether it's a $1 bet or a $1.50 bet, so bet $1.50 next time. The 10 extra bb's you gain when called makes a huge difference in the long run.
    • sentin1ty
      sentin1ty
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.03.2009 Posts: 123
      Just ship it where you think he can have very strong hand and you have nuts. I.E. you have boat and he can have flush. If he has anything he'll call either way. Or you have like 9T on 5678K board. But it hurts when u shit it into their top range ;( And yeah, this is not that spot.
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      I don't think this is a good spot to overbet since opponent wouldn't really have a huge hand that often on such a board, and you might even get stuff like TT to fold.

      The best place to overbet shove nuts on river is where you have an opponent who is only thinking about his own hole cards, and its highly likely that villain has at least top pair especially when that top pair is an ace.
    • maca1214
      maca1214
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.07.2013 Posts: 74
      Yeah its really bad now that I see it. Ok got it thanks.

      edit: should i bet bigger flop though with just a gutshot?
    • Evante
      Evante
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2009 Posts: 833
      I think we should know whether is he a fish in the first place?

      I think it is ok with your flop bet, but river bet is way to small(as played).
    • ferrari1f
      ferrari1f
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.11.2013 Posts: 142
      I would just bet a bit over 65 percent on the flop, meaning that I would bet 26 cents here instead of 20 cents (I tend to bet more often 24 cents in fact - but I change my bettings so that it doesn't look like I am auto-piloting). That makes the pot on the turn 0.77 + 0.12 = 0.89 cents.

      As you make the nuts on the turn, I would just bet again for slightly over 65 percent. I would bet around 64 cents on the turn. As the hand played out and as we see what hand he has, he is not going to fold. If he had complete air, he was going to fold either way. Lots of stuff he would continue with here. So this means that the pot is now 0.89 + 0.64 + 0.64 = 2.17 instead of 1.77 $.

      The river is a good card. If he was calling with a flushdraw, you're not getting paid anyways. Value bet big enough to get paid by worse hands (overpairs - sets). I would bet 1.40 $ on the river.

      Assume that he calls all streets, you win a pot of 4.97 $ instead of 3.77 $ which is a huge difference. I would definitely go for maximum value. If he has complete air, he is not calling, no matter how small you bet. Only overpairs - sets and 2 pair-like hands might keep calling. All the way down, but it's really up to you to put villain on a range and value bet appropriate.
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,908
      Hi, ferrari1f,
      Welcome to PokerStrategy.com !

      Great to have you aboard.

      You seem to have a fair bit of knowledge.

      Perhaps you could take a moment to introduce yourself.

      Be sure to have a look at all we have to offer, starting with free poker money

      Best of luck,
      --VS
    • ferrari1f
      ferrari1f
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.11.2013 Posts: 142
      Thanks for the warm welcome !

      Well, I have the basics and basic knowledge but there is a lot room for improvement for me. I will introduce myself in that topic!

      Cheers