zoom downswing?

    • peaced13
      peaced13
      Basic
      Joined: 05.11.2013 Posts: 1
      hey I dont know where to ask this but basically I have a good winrate at 2nl zoom over about 100k hands at around 13bb/100, yet for the past 30k hands or so ive been having continuous rough patches. for the first 100k hands i only had 5 buy in swings max, and 3-4 5k hand break even stretches but nothing too big beyond this.

      however for the past 30k hands, I had a 10 buyin down swing, built it back up and then a 13 buy in downswing right after. I am currently losing over the past 30k hands or so and am on another 9 buyin downswing.

      is this standard variance, or is something else going on? there was an enormous amount of coolers with set over sets, quads vs quads etc, but the only reason im questioning this is cause these swings weren't happening for the first 100k hands or so. I haven't changed anything in my game that im aware of and i feel like im playing fine every session, so im leaning towards normal variance...but it seems quite rare to be having these swings considering the stakes im playing and the fact that my winrate is good. for this to start happening all of a sudden is it normal?
  • 6 replies
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      You ran great for 100k hands and now you run bad, what will be left afterwards will be better measure of your winrate than just taking first 100k hands and saying it's your wr.

      Completely normal to have big heaters over 100k hands. As it is normal to lose after 30k.
    • gretemikaite
      gretemikaite
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.09.2011 Posts: 69
      You consider a downswing when you play below ev? Then it's nothing especiall on NL2 where other players just love to spew some chips around. Just take few days off. And don't get spewy in order to win your money back
    • ErikStenqvist
      ErikStenqvist
      Global
      Joined: 14.01.2013 Posts: 431
      With the information you gave it's standard. :)
    • gaijin69
      gaijin69
      Gold
      Joined: 31.03.2010 Posts: 1,229
      Originally posted by peaced13
      hey I dont know where to ask this but basically I have a good winrate at 2nl zoom over about 100k hands at around 13bb/100, yet for the past 30k hands or so ive been having continuous rough patches. for the first 100k hands i only had 5 buy in swings max, and 3-4 5k hand break even stretches but nothing too big beyond this.

      however for the past 30k hands, I had a 10 buyin down swing, built it back up and then a 13 buy in downswing right after. I am currently losing over the past 30k hands or so and am on another 9 buyin downswing.

      is this standard variance, or is something else going on? there was an enormous amount of coolers with set over sets, quads vs quads etc, but the only reason im questioning this is cause these swings weren't happening for the first 100k hands or so. I haven't changed anything in my game that im aware of and i feel like im playing fine every session, so im leaning towards normal variance...but it seems quite rare to be having these swings considering the stakes im playing and the fact that my winrate is good. for this to start happening all of a sudden is it normal?
      I kinda think this guy is a troll.

      I mean, he was playing with the 13bb/100winrate over 100k hands. Thanks to my awesome computational superpowers, I can reveal to you that this means he earned 13*1000*0,02$ = 260$. That's more than enough to play NL5 and I was making regular shots at NL10 with that bankroll back in the day.

      Just saying... :f_confused:
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Meh, there are guys who played millions of hands nl2 winning and didn't move up. Don't think it's that unlikely for someone to play 100k hands and not move up. And he didn't say he never made shots and failed.
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,926
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      Meh, there are guys who played millions of hands nl2 winning and didn't move up. Don't think it's that unlikely for someone to play 100k hands and not move up. And he didn't say he never made shots and failed.