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[NL2-NL10] Nl50 AKo Multiway

    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $56,71
      BB:
      $9,25
      UTG:
      $52,07
      UTG+1:
      $49,25
      UTG+2:
      $52,49
      MP1:
      $80,45
      Hero:
      $10,00
      MP3:
      $44,22
      CO:
      $50,00
      BU:
      $36,96

      0,25/0,5 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.60 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K:heart: , A:spade:
      2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0,50, MP1 calls $0,50, Hero raises to $3,00, 2 folds, BU calls $3,00, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls $2,50, MP1 folds.

      Flop: ($10,25) 4:heart: , 6:spade: , 2:club: (3 players)
      UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, BU bets $9,74,

      I count the following outs:
      6 for 2 Overcards
      1 Backdoor
      = 7 = 2,6:1 needed ( 27% ) to call.

      Pot odds:
      ((10.25 + 7)x0.95) By investing $7
      16.3875 : 7
      2.35:1 ( = 29% )

      So can I can call this one while its a 2% EV edge? I did take his AF/VPIP stats into consideration as he could 'bluff' with overcards as well.
  • 3 replies
    • davidangel
      davidangel
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      I would only count the overcards as "outs" per say, as a 3 5 turn-river gives you both a str8 2-6 for split pot.
      Villian hands played are low so stats are out.
      vs a pair, 6 outs = 3:1
      vs a set = drawing dead
      vs A or K with pair, 3 outs = 7:1
      vs A or K bluff = big favorite (1:7)?
      vs any other = small favorite (1:3)?

      3-way pot, I think I would surrender here and look for a better spot.
    • IngolPoker
      IngolPoker
      Black
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,484
      easy fold!

      your outs do not have to be clean.
      Reread the article and think a bit about discounting your outs :)
    • DeKuip
      DeKuip
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 10,995
      I only see 6 outs and you're not even sure that those are all clean outs.
      But lets say 6 outs, then you'll get ~24% equity, I don't think that's enough here. So therefor I think you should just fold here and wait for a better spot.