[NL2-NL10] NL10 AJ miss flop

    • davidangel
      davidangel
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $10.75
      Hero:
      $2.00

      0.05/0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.60 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:club: , J:club:
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, BB calls $0.30.

      Flop: ($0.85) 4:spade: , 7:diamond: , K:diamond: (2 players)
      BB bets $0.75, Hero folds, BB gets uncalled bet back..

      Final Pot: $0.85

      With the pot 1/2 my stack do I push?. Not sure how to make the math calculation... any advice?
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      • 27.09.2008, 18:49
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by Gerv: 27.09.2008 18:50.
      Assume that whenever Villain donkbets you, that you are going to get called unless his donkbet is a minbet or something.

      So with having that said, its pretty safe to calculate it from there so if he folds, well then you win it ofcourse ;) so

      Pot + Your Stack that is going to call + your stack : Your remaining stack

      $0.85 + $1.6 + $1.6 // $1.6
      $4.05 / 1.6
      2.5/1 = 28% you need.

      But apart from that, I would fold this one because there are Two :ds, a King which makes your Jack rather useless and discount your Ace which leaves you with 2 clean outs BUT even then, if you face AK, your actually drawing ''dead' more or less. For 2 outs you need 11:1 based on 2 cards to make it +EV

      As you can see, its a clear fold.
      - Gerv
    • davidangel
      davidangel
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      So I would need 7 clean outs then? Say if my hand was diamonds instead of clubs, I have 11 outs + backdoor, so thats an easy shove?

      Pot + Your Stack that is going to call + your stack : Your remaining stack

      Is there an article with this formula in it?
    • IngolPoker
      IngolPoker
      Black
      Joined: 05.09.2006 Posts: 10,482
      with just 1 overcard i dont even start calculating ;)
      if you would have a flushdraw you would play it as a made hand according to basic articles!