Fold AA???

    • kukkiwonBG
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      This is a theoretical question
      the blinds are 50/100 and you and the villain have 2000 chips
      You are in the MP1 poss and you limp for deception with a big hand
      After you the "tight of the year" award winner raise to 3BB
      You make a decision that on any flop you will raise big, and on the base of his image hi will push nearly on any flop too.
      Then you have two decisions
      Fold 1900 EV
      Or Push
      For this you must have EV > 1900
      If villain fold JJ, AQ or some move we can say he will fold in 10% of the cases
      He will call with QQ+, AK
      Ew is your equity
      1900 < / 2250*(Ew) *0.9 / + / 550 * 0.1 /
      Ew > 0.91
      So you equity must be more than 91%
      But with aces vs QQ+, AK you have only 84%
      So what

      Some feedback
  • 4 replies
    • kukkiwonBG
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 4,494
      This is for SNG
      6-8 people left
      and the buy-in is big
    • camicio
      Joined: 25.04.2008 Posts: 118
      ? pot is 2000*2+ 100 + 50 = 4150, not 2250 if he calls your push
    • cannell555
      Joined: 06.03.2008 Posts: 2,410
      Hi kukkiwonBG,

      Theres an easy way out of this. Don't limp AA for deception. If you do limp AA, then why not reraise after the TaGs raise. Its obvious he has a big hand.

      People try to play to smart. You should play ABC poker on the low-medium buyins. You say he'll push any flop, yet you also say he's TaG. So if he raised AQo preflop, he'd go broke on a K high board? Nope, thats not a read, he would never go broke on any flop, even with KK he wont go broke, if theres an ace.

      The best thing you can do is raise 2.5-3 bb's preflop.

      Best regards,
    • Jesusitonsky
      Joined: 25.11.2007 Posts: 3,011
      Dont limp aces, and always reraise a TAG whos gonna risk all his money with you because he had to have a very good range of hands.