[NL2-NL10] NL10 – QQ vs SS or TAG re-raise

    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $7.00
      Hero:
      $2.05
      BU:
      $1.95

      0.05/0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.60 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q:diamond: , Q:spade:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, BU raises to $1.95 (All-In), SB folds, BB calls $1.85, Hero raises to $2.05 (All-In), BB calls $0.10.

      Flop: ($6.10) 3:club: , T:heart: , 2:club:
      Turn: ($6.10) T:club:
      River: ($6.10) A:heart:


      Final Pot: $6.10

      Overview: BU is either a SS player or TAG. To re-raise me from late position he would have to be AK+, JJ+ for SS – or maybe AQ+, 10-10+ if he was TAG. Should I have folded in light of his statistics? I was reluctant to fold given the the possibility of a double up (since the loose BB called the re-raise).
  • 8 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi John

      If the BB calls your raise he only produce Dead money so you want to have that! As he is very loose passive, you can give him a wide range so often your Ladies are +EV.

      Dead money decreases the amount of Equity you need to be profitable so thats good too!

      so in the end looking from a mathematical perspective:
      You got 48% versus AK+ JJ+

      Total pot is
      ($0.4+$1.95+$1.95[Assume BB calls your remaining $0.1])x0.95 :: your remaining stack
      $4.1:$1.65
      $2.5:1~
      =
      You need 28% Equity to be Profitable in the long run

      Give BB a wide range (11% or something) and you see - through Equilator - that you have 39% if you play against those guys.

      So I would push here as well, I never fold Queens in this spot ;)
    • TheBu11d0g
      TheBu11d0g
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2008 Posts: 2,019
      You haven't got a big enough sample size of hands on the player as yet to be able to use the stats with any certainty, for vp$ip, pfr, and af you need at least 100+ hands on the player for them to be realistic.

      As played it was an excellant play. according to your remaining stack:original raise ratio, the QQ push was the correct action. Well played.
    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      @ Gerv.

      So I'm risking $1 to win $3.5. Hence I need >28% (100/3.5) odds to be profitable? Still not that great at the maths side of things - I think I'm going to have to use a calculator from now on when playing.

      @ TheBu11d0g

      That's true. But I think I have enough to make an estimate, even if it isn't completely realistic.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      $2.5:1~
      =
      You need 28% Equity to be Profitable in the long run
      You invest $1 to win $2.5, 3.5 to the power of minus-One = 28% ;)
    • TheBu11d0g
      TheBu11d0g
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2008 Posts: 2,019
      Just be careful when using estimates to make a judgement as they can sometimes come back to bite ya on the arse :D , as i know only too well.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by TheBu11d0g
      Just be careful when using estimates to make a judgement.
      Could you explain this line to me please?
    • TheBu11d0g
      TheBu11d0g
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2008 Posts: 2,019
      I'm just trying to say that only estimating a player might be this or might be that without concrete evidence from enough hands on a player can be a bit hit or miss IMO.
    • 098799
      098799
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2007 Posts: 1,245
      QQ I never fold against ss :) . BB can have variety of hands and his call only makes things easier. Now you need only 33% equity to win this one and I guess you do.