Playing our range..

  • 9 replies
    • BarryCarter
      BarryCarter
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 13.01.2011 Posts: 4,963
      This is the hand btw
    • wlcKeD
      wlcKeD
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 1,048
      Originally posted by pleno1
      Hi guys, post your game plans in here and we can discuss and go through them on Wednesday in the coaching.

      :f_love:
      A bit out of topic, sry for that, but is it still gonna be a live play for the coaching as usual ? :rolleyes:
    • circoflax
      circoflax
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      In my experience, when you call a 3b BTN vs SB and the flop is K high with a FD, the 3bettor's range is usually stronger. It's even stronger in this case with with the J next to the K.

      When we just call the cbet on the flop, our perceived range is mostly 1 pair, some FD, some QT, some gutshots and some random floats. We almost never have 2 pair or better.

      The 5 is pretty much a blank, unless somebody has a hand like QhTh, AhTh or any other random hearts.

      SO if we think the opponent understands this and sees us as an aggressive player, he will most likely check a huge part of his range here, with the plan of raising hands like TPTK or better for value, but also almost all hearts and spades he has, as our range is pretty weak. I think he check-folds his air on this turn.

      Given this, I'd probably check behind 1 pair hands and other hands with equity+showdown value like AT, AQ. I would only bet some flopped monsters that I have slowplayed for some reason, but that almost never happens on the flop, so my betting range here would be almost 0.
      Unless I have a read on the opponent that he may fire 1 and give up a lot, in which case I would bet some hands with low SD value like low spades.

      I think if he check-calls, his range is mostly Kx and AJ, so I think we can have an easy value bet on the river with our good kings.

      River:
      I think the only hands I would go bet bet for value are KQ or better. We could also shove some missed FD that we bet on the turn, but I think we get called a lot.

      I'd go over a lot of possible river possibilities, but I'm not sure I'll be able to attend the coaching so I will just stop here.
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      Homework completed. :pokerface:

      Open BTN range 50.8%


      So, skipping the math, I'm going to arrive at the ratio off ~30% of our opening range I want to call to be unexploitable in this scenario.

      30% x 50.4% = 15% of all possible hands called.

      Call Preflop 3b range
      Light blue line - 1 combo AA


      I don't have a flop raising range.

      Flop bet is $9 into $15.50
      So we must defend at least 63% of the time on the flop if doing so by calling.

      63% x 15% = 9.45

      Call flop bet range
      Pink line = hearts and spades - gutshot +backdoor fd = 2 combos
      Yellow line = spades only - FD = 1 combo
      Light blue line = 1 combo AA



      Turn

      I want one bluff per value bet on the turn with 2 streets of value left, assuming a 70% pot bet.

      Value Bet combos

      55 3 combos
      KJs 3 combos
      AA 1 combo
      KQo 9 combos
      KQs 3 combos
      KTs 3 combos
      K9s 3 combos

      25 combos

      Mid Pair combos
      AJo 9 combos


      Bluff Combos
      QTs 4 combos
      All non paired FD combos excluding AQ
      All gutshot/fd combos excluding AQ
      26 combos


      Total combos bet 60 = 5.57x% of total range = 51% of flop calling range.




      I don't think I can do my river ranges and talk about which hands I would bet again without a river card. But I can say any completed draw will have a lot of betting coming at it! :f_cool:

      If anyones interested, I showed (in my blog here) how I would change my ranges with this hand given exploitable reads on a hypothetical villain.

      A quick note on Turn bet sizing.

      Our opponent after taking this line has a range consisting of mostly the following:

      -A hand he bluffed the flop with which he is x/folding.
      -A marginal hand he is x/calling.
      -A x/r range with (if he's balanced) 1:1, bluffs:value

      So any bet kills off the x/folding part of the range.
      A large bet is good if he's x/calling.
      A small bet is better if he's x/raising.

      Firstly BB's range betting from the BB is polarized. After betting the flop and checking the turn, his range still mostly consists of air or the nuts.
      On this king high flop a typical BB 3betting V button range has top pair or better only 17.5% of the time and no made hand 62% of the time. He has a mid pair or weak pair 8% of the time and Ace high 10% of the time.

      The turn card doesn't really put any marginal hands in his range either. Hands he would now x/call the turn with that he bluffed on the flop. He may still have a medium strength hand that he bet on the flop that he is x/calling with however.
      With 2 flush draws the board is semi coordinated and a x/r turn range is certainly possible.
      So I think a medium sized bet, such as about 1/2 pot would do well.

      This gets his x/f range done and that equity gone.
      His x/calling range is forced to defend wider and we can play more IP
      His x/r range doesn't hurt us as much as if we made a larger bet.

    • pleno1
      pleno1
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 19.11.2010 Posts: 5,596
      nice, moarrrrrr guys.
    • fitzinator18
      fitzinator18
      Basic
      Joined: 10.10.2012 Posts: 447
      was tired when i wrote...didnt see to post in thread, w/e, C&P time (Y)

      my preflop peel range to the 3bet looks something like 77+, 67s+, suited broadways, hands like T8s & maybe 1/3-1/2 of the combos of QQ+AK, (i'd be more likely to want to get in AKo pre than AKs due to playability). not many offsuit hands as i'd use hands like ATo and possibly KJo/AJo to 4bet bluff since they are reasonable candidates with not great playability post...and some reverse implied odds. I'd have AQo and probably KQo though in my flatting range.

      on the flop im going to just be folding hands like 87cc and everything with little equity. i'd fold 77-99 regardless and peel just the TsTx combos of TT.

      so hands I'd get to the turn with are:

      hands that contain pairs or better: TsTx, AJs, QJs, JTs, J9s, QQ (1/2), KTs, KQs/o, AKs, AKo(1/3), AA(1/3), KJs, all JJ set combos, 1 combo of KK (said i'd peel pre about 1/3 of the time, Ks is out, only 3 combo's left...).

      I actually think flatting entire flop range is fine here, so given that, i guess we're flatting our draws too:

      Draws: all spade draws of 67s or better (11 combos), AQo with a spade (6 combos), all other QTs combos (3)

      I'm getting to the turn with this range if im flatting the flop always, a total of 65 combos:

      5 FD

      4 gutter+FD

      1 OESFD

      6 AQsx, AxQs

      3 QTs (OESD)
      ------------------------

      17 worse than TP

      15 TP

      15 TPTK+ (7 2p+, 8 AK/AA)

      In practice I'm always betting turn with hands that are not a pair, i.e. all my draws. so pointless to come up with a gameplan where that's not the case. so since we're betting 19 draw combos, best to check back our 1 combo of KK and our 3 combos of KJs, and bet the 3 combos of AK and AA with 1 spade in them. then also bet 7 of the 15 top pair w/o top kicker combos. leaving us betting 19 draws (including 5 very strong draws), 7 TPTK+ hands and 7 top pair hands.

      meaning we check back our 17 weaker pairs, 8 top pairs and 7 TPTK+ hands (incl. 3 sets).

      probably as close to balanced as i can get.

      once we get to the river, assuming it's a brick, if he calls turn we're betting our 15 TPTK+ combos, which is pretty easy to balance with missed draws, we'd check back the AQsx hands since theyre bottom of our range leaving is 13 draw combos, of which it makes sense to bet the ATss, AQss, Q9ss, QTss and 9Tss, then take your pick out of the others for however many bluff combos vs value combos you need.

      there are lots of rivers that can change things but frankly ive spent too long on this already so i'm leaving it there.

      -------------------------------------------
      i mean i wouldnt always flat the flop, but for the purposes of this hand, since that's what was required, this is what i came up with

      oh and this bit where i say:

      "meaning we check back our 17 weaker pairs, 8 top pairs and 7 TPTK+ hands (incl. 3 sets)."

      should have been more clear...and i said it wrong.

      bet all draws (19 combos), bet 3 combos of AA/AK, 7 top pair w/o TK hands. and 3 sets (JJ)

      check back KK (1), KJs (3), AK/AA (4), 8 top pair w/o top kicker, and our 17 weaker than TP combos.

      should be clearer now. im tired.
    • fitzinator18
      fitzinator18
      Basic
      Joined: 10.10.2012 Posts: 447
      idea of betting AK/AA w/o spade and checking back ones with spade is just that he has more flushdraws to checkraise if we dont have As, hopefully making his range more bluffheavy
    • BC1989RF
      BC1989RF
      Gold
      Joined: 09.04.2010 Posts: 845
      Plan:
      - No read -> defensive style -> GTO to define overall game plan
      I hide the flop/turn analysis given the analysis is supposed to focus on turn play but I needed to do it to have an idea of what we get to the turn with.
      NB: I thought the hand was hu first, hence the wide ranges.

      - Preflop assumptions

      o 100% minraise
      o Vs a 7.5bb 3bet villain is risking 7bb to win 3.5bb -> we need to defend 35-40% of our range = 1326 combos * 35% = 450ish combos
      o 4bet/call: AQ+, TT+ = 5% = 60ish combos
      o 4bet/fold: approximately keeping a 1:1 ratio of value and bluffs for the 4bet range = another 5% = 60ish combos
      Choose whatever blocker hands you can’t call a 3bet profitably with (A6o, K4o, J2s etc)
      o So we are left with 450 – 120 = 300-330 combos = 20-25% to put into our calling range
      {44-99, A7+, Axs, K5s+, K9+, QT+, Q7s+, JT, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 76s+} = 24% for 315ish combos.


      This range sounds fine. I just pick up the hands based on overall NL ranking and what I assume are the best hands to realize the most of their equity postflop (high pairs and strong draws?).
      Should we have a slight read on what villain’s 3betting range is we can start adapting this range and the 4bet range.


      - Flop:
      K:spade: J:spade: 2:heart:
      - Vs a 9-15 flop cbet: we need to defend about 65-70% of our preflop calls i.e. folding to a cbet only 30-35% of the time. Most players don’t defend wide enough but that’s fine tbh since the 3bettor range is stronger on this texture, so villain is somewhat “entitled” to get away with cbetting and hero somewhat “forced” to fold too often.
      65% = 200ish combos
      {any pair > Jx, any 2x, any draw} = 160 combos already

      We can add the stronger backdoor draws such as
      Backdoor hearts: A:heart: 9:heart: , Q:heart: 8:heart: {A9hh-A3hh, Qxhh}.
      Backdoor spades: A:spade: 9:diamond: and A:spade: 8:club: are fine too.
      Backdoor str8draws: T8s, T7s.
      ========================
      190ish combos

      Still missing a few combos. Unless villain 3bets very depolarized preflop, his bluffing range without eequity won’t barrel too often, so calling marginal SD value hands like underpp + bdfd should be fine
      {99, 8s8-7s7s} = 12combos

      ========================
      200ish combos for the 65% required.



      - Turn:
      So this is the range we get to the turn with:


      - 2p+: 5%
      - Top pair: 25%
      - Jx 2nd pair: 25%
      - Lower pair 99, 2x etc : 8ish%
      - Flushdraws: 25%
      - Str8draw: 15%
      That’s almost our entire range, we barely have air. The weakest hands we have are Ahi + bdfd like A:spade: 9:club: .

      - Like very often in poker situations, we start eliminating options. I don’t really know what our game plan should look like on this specific turn but I know what I should NOT do almost for sure:
      Betting pairs <Jx without backup will probably be too thin for value.
      Betting Ahi’s sounds silly since villain is not folding many better hands and we have SD value.
      Same goes for AT – we have a gutshot – but I think we have sufficient SD value to xback.

      Taking these hands out, we are left with 170 combos:


      - Sizing plan
      So now, sizing-wise we have to define a sizing-plan. I am not sure what’s best here.
      I don’t think it’s that important to choose a sizing setting up the perfect river shove given a strong villain will probably not play check-call but XRai on this texture fairly often. It’s more important to design a sizing enabling hero not to be an easy target for a XRai strategy from villain. And this is being accomplished by betting small i.e. letting us the option to bet/fold cheaply and not serving the purpose of villain by being dead money.
      On this texture, you really don’t want to bet $24 and fold to a shove.

      Readless I think going for 12-17 and leaving [67, 72] into a [57, 67] river pot should be good.

      - For value: probably not going too thin and bet/calling most value hands.
      {KT+, Kxhh} = 35ish combos
      So if we do bet 15 we lay villain with odds a little bit better than 3:1 i.e. we should have 1 bluff for every 3 hands we value bet. That would be 10ish bluffs but this is assuming nothing happens next after villain called, like on a river spot.
      Our bluffs have so much equity – between 20 and 30% - that I think we can increase that ratio to 3:2 or maybe even 3:3? I don’t know a solid, math-based approach to determine what the value:bluff ratio should be. 20-25 bluffs should be okay.

      Potential bluffs: Flushdraws and str8draws = 60ish combos.
      I think we should define the non made hands we want to xback turn to let us pick among the bluffing hands left to bet the turn with.
      I like xback 2 types of draws on this texture: a) the draws that have SD value but are not strictly speaking a value bet (Ex: J:heart: 7:heart: ) or b) hands we really dislike having to bet/fold the turn with (AT, Q9, 8:spade: 6:spade: etc. the weak draws).


      Things to keep in mind:
      - Preflop: maybe we need to defend even more hands than 35-40% since when we just call the 3bet we let villain realize some share of his equity by seeing a flop

      - Turn/river: It’s nice to have flushes on both river hearts and spades. So we should xback some flushdraws on the turn
      - Turn: This is quite a dynamic board texture: double flush draw + straight draws arount K and J, and around 5 and 2. We have to remember that villain could potentially play a check-raise all-in with many hands going from value hands as thin as Kx and bluffs as wide as AQ/Q9.
      This means hero should really contemplate the possibility of getting check-raised all-in. Value betting very thin or bluffing with a Thi or 9hi draw with the intention of bet/folding (by such, giving up substantial equity) or being forced to call an all-in with a dominated draw are big considerations here.

      - turn: me being concerned by not bet/folding too often this texture somewhat made me design a game plan that is somewhat unbalanced: I think I bet/call this turn too often when I bet, which villain can adapt to by only XRai for value or instead NOT checking the turn because I will xback too often etc.

      - River: no matter what actions – hero betting or checking back this turn – if we see a river, we will play the river much better than villain.
      If villain xc turn, we could value very well – villain’s range being capped at weak Kx and not including many flushdraws.
      If hero xback I think it’s important to keep in mind that we have bluffing options on hearts and Jx particularly. Spades somewhat less as we would bet the turn quite often.
    • ivancro
      ivancro
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.02.2008 Posts: 97
      Board: KsJs2h 5h

      My range: AK(6), AQ, AJ, KQ, ATs, A9s, KJs, QJs, KTs, QTs, JTs, J9s,
      T9s, T8s, 98s, 97s, 87s, 76s, 88-TT, A5-A2s ...................................................... (144)

      At 50nl, on average, I dont even defend this wide because I'm not
      faced with wide enough range (>15%)

      ...FLOP...

      RAISE-CALL: KJs ....................................................................................................(3)
      +draws: AsQs, AsTs, As2s , QsTs ...........................................................................(4)
      RAISE-FOLD: AhQh, AhTh, Th9h, AsQh, AsQd ......................................................... (5)

      CALL: AK(6), AJ(12), QJs(3),QTs(3), JTs(3), QK(12),KTs, J9s (3),Ts9s(1)
      As9s,Ts8s(1), 9s8s(1), 9s7s(1), 8s7s(1), As5s-As3s(3) ........................................ (54)

      Total: ................................................................................................................... (66)
      (flop is more favorable for his range => defending less)

      ...TURN (33$)...

      betsize: 18$

      BET-CALL: KhQh, KhQs, KhTh, AK(6) ..................................................................... (9)
      BET-FOLD: QTs(3), Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As4s, As3s ............................... (10)
      CHECK: AJ, As9s, As5s, KTs(2), QJs, JTs, J9s, KQ(10) .......................................... (35)