[NL20-NL50] A8s Monster-River-Bet

    • generals007
      Joined: 17.09.2007 Posts: 578
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)    
      vp$ip	foldbb	ats	pfr
      af	w$sd	wts	hands
      SB (37,35)
      BB (25)

      0,10/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em [color:blue](6 handed)[/color]
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 8:diamond: , A:diamond:
      [color:grey]4 folds[/color], SB calls $0,15, [color:red]Hero raises to $1,00[/color], SB calls $0,75.

      Flop: ($2,00) A:heart: , T:club: , A:club: [color:blue](2 players)[/color]
      SB checks, Hero checks.

      Turn: ($2,00) 5:diamond: [color:blue](2 players)[/color]
      SB checks, [color:red]Hero bets $1,25[/color], SB calls $1,25.

      River: ($4,50) K:diamond: [color:blue](2 players)[/color]
      [color:red]SB bets $35,10 (All-In)[/color], [color:grey]Hero folds[/color].

      Final Pot: $39,60


      I decide to raise in BB with A8s beacause the guy generally flatcalled a lot of hands anyways. I flop trip aces and decide to c/r him and on a reraise fold. He checks behind. He checks on turn again, I bet, he calls. Then he goes allin on river with some 23 dollars.

      I know i should bet big on flop instead of c/r, probably, and bet bigger on turn if I do. But is this a clear fold?

  • 3 replies
    • Diedobal
      Joined: 07.10.2007 Posts: 558
      Hmm, he represents pretty much nothing.

      Dont think he has an ace/better ace here often: No ace would frontcheck both flop+turn on this pretty drawwy flop.

      A better Ace is unlikely: AT+ would raise preflop, same counts for TT, KK. Vs any other Ax hand (except A5) your splitting the pot.

      So basically you only have to fear QJ and 55, but 55 is not likely because of the passive line on flop+turn.

      Would say he just hit 2 pair on river, or is on a total bluff (as your line looks weak and people go crazy on paired boards often.)

      Overall I think you have the best hand here atleast 50% of the time --> call.

      Some stats on this guy could be helpfull to judge this hand too ;)
    • generals007
      Joined: 17.09.2007 Posts: 578
      I don't have any stats and I know I am ahead very often. But it would be an expensive mistake.

    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      You can´t really go c/r, when you´re ip.
      I´d just bet on that flop, since there is flushdraw and he could easily hold lower Ax.
      RIver: Imo it is not a bluff and I´d like to fold. Since he could easily play pf AK that way or maybe hit QJ on the river. Pot is small and you don´t have the nuts. Just give it up.