[NL2-NL10] NL100 AKo

    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $15,22
      BB:
      $97,24
      UTG:
      $95,50
      UTG+1:
      $399,83
      UTG+2:
      $11,84
      MP1:
      $30,50
      MP2:
      $20,00
      MP3:
      $108,28
      Hero:
      $18,00
      BU:
      $93,73

      0,5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.60 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:diamond: , K:spade:
      UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $6,00, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $20,00 (All-In), MP3 folds, Hero raises to $18,00 (All-In), 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $14,00.

      Is this a No-Brainer and Shove it as well?
      I got a read on UTG+1's raises and his 6bb openraise is defo not a monster hand (QQ+ & AK). Against a fellow shortstacker who's on MP, I need dead money (UTG+1 raise) in order to shove it with AKo.

      Thinking in ranges:
      Shortie: JJ+ AK+
      UTG+1 Fish: QT-KQ, AT-AQ - 77-QQ

      So with AKo, I have an expected value of: 28%~

      Pot Odds at the time being:
      24:18
      1.33:1
      = 42% needed

      But estimating that UTG+1 will call anyway:
      2:1
      =33%

      Conclusion: I miss 5% in my opinion thus its -EV or Marginal. However I doubt this is true with Anna Kournikova.

      Any Thoughts about this?
  • 6 replies
    • davidangel
      davidangel
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      MP2 looks like short LAG, and he has position on the chum. So if he is also a shark and has been sitting and patiently watching for a good spot to isolate the chum. In a late position its often folded to you and the chum, and sometimes there is lucrative blind money in the pot. Good spot. Here he is in middle position so you would asume he needs a tight range considering others behind him left to act.... or does he?
      Did he have the same read as you? The UTG chum overbet the pot preflop and the rest of the chum instantly think AA or KK. If the MP shark double overbets the pot again... everyone thinks AA over KK and folds out. (more like AQ over KT)
      So in this case you might consider lowering MPs hand range to include 99+ and AQ+, but only if you can make a read on your opponents read of another player. What I am saying is... if you notice another shark adjusting thier style, or taking particular interest in one chum, you might want to have a big bite yourself while he isnt looking, or at least grab a half share of the chum pie.
      I would push all-in and go make a sandwich :D
    • drachdudek
      drachdudek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.11.2007 Posts: 656
      its ok to push, i would probabaly also go broke on that with his stats, i would not say that he dont hold KK or AA, but wtf....
    • DeKuip
      DeKuip
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 10,966
      First of all I think UTG+1 is loose fish and dead money. The shortie is tough. If he's using stats as well this is a no-brainer and easy push for you. Because MP2 will probably push 88+ AT+ here against the loose fish, but only if he knows the same as you do :)
      So we just can't tell for sure. However, AKo is still an push here IMO, especially with the dead money.
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      To be honest I dont like overshoving with Ako AKs ok but Ako looses so much equity against pockets and utg can also get out of line and raise aces 6bb so I fold and safe my money.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by ysessa
      To be honest I dont like overshoving with Ako AKs ok but Ako looses so much equity against pockets and utg can also get out of line and raise aces 6bb so I fold and safe my money.
      I got a read considering his raise sizes, he raises monsters (3% range) 4+1bb. 6bb are marginal hands like TT-99, AQ/AJ/AT

      Could you readjust your statement if applicable?
    • allizdoR
      allizdoR
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2007 Posts: 4,568
      Originally posted by Gerv
      Originally posted by ysessa
      To be honest I dont like overshoving with Ako AKs ok but Ako looses so much equity against pockets and utg can also get out of line and raise aces 6bb so I fold and safe my money.
      I got a read considering his raise sizes, he raises monsters (3% range) 4+1bb. 6bb are marginal hands like TT-99, AQ/AJ/AT

      Could you readjust your statement if applicable?
      I tread mp2 as unkown with 17 hands. so utg+1 is unkown for mp2 as well.
      then i think he only pushs very strong hands.
      i think you mostly get a flip or you are behind but not more.