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There Is No Shorterm: 2.5/50k NL10

    • Jehryn
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 678
      Hello everyone,

      Welcome to my blog dedicated to my new start in poker

      About me

      I'm a 31 year old Belgian expat living in Paris and working in Finance. I started playing a number of years ago with Pokerstrategy and the the wildy popular Short Stack Strategy. I played NL5-NL100 and some SNG's but I got frustrated with the endless downswings and I quit poker to go play Starcraft II :D

      But now I'm BACK !

      What Poker is about

      In the last weeks I read several poker books to prepare myself for the tables and I read one sentence by Blackrain79, the famous micro-crusher, that really stunned me:

      I do not understand the short run in poker. I only understand the long run. In the long run I win. In the short run I have no idea what is going to happen. And I just have to accept that.

      A general sentiment with new poker players (like myself) is that we really complain downswings of 5000 hands were we just get bad beats and coolers, in the extreme case we rage about a 10k hands downswing like its the end of the world. But it isn't, its normal. When the minimum sample size to somwhat safely ascertain your true winrate is 100.000 hands, what point is there in raging about a few hands?

      But that is exactly what I did and why I failed at poker. With a barely positive winrate I multitabled (16+) like crazy, chasing RB and deposit bonussen on every poker room in existence. And everytime a little bad luck pushed my winrate close to zero I tilted and raged until it became minus 100bb/100hands while blaming everything expect myself.

      A second line in the book of Blackrain79 also stood out for me:

      One of the biggest benefits of a high winrate is the noticable lack of large downswings

      If you have a true winrate of 10 bb/100 and a massive downswing cuts away 8bb, you're are still in the green. As absurdly stupidly obvious this sounds, making a high winrate at a specific limit your overaching goal is not something I ever considered. All I cared about was building a Bankroll big enough to climb the limits as long as my winrate wasn't negative.

      But this excarbates swings which in turn negatively impact you mental condition which in turn leads to permanent hard tilting and an even bigger downswing.


      For those that actually read all that rambling :P , from this I formulated some principles which I will try to follow:

      1. Every limit need to be crushed before moving higher and this can only be proven over a sufficiently long sample size

      2. Good BRM is an essential but not sufficient requirement for advancing in Poker. Only true skill translated in your winrate is.

      3. I will not chase RB/Bonusses, for they lead to mindless grinding which will inhibite the growth my poker skills.


      My old BR on Skrill is still at 1400$, I transfered 500 EUR to Unibet to start playing NL10. I will first establish that I can still beat NL10 before moving on higher up. So my goals for the coming 3 months are:

      :club: Play 50k hands on NL10
      :club: Post 10 hands a week for analysis
      :club: Read/Watch 3 articles/video's a week
      :club: Achieve a consistent winrate of 10 BB/100

      That's all for my first post, see you at the tables :s_biggrin:
  • 4 replies
    • Jehryn
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 678
      And the results of my first day:

      Hands: 2510
      Net Won: 78.69 EUR
      Winrate: 31.35 BB/100
    • MBJUK
      Joined: 24.04.2013 Posts: 56
      hey we're both starting new blogs and playing similar limits, so I'll be following!

      I would really appreciate if you would follow mine back! No pressure though, I'll still be keeping track of you :) Mine is at A not-so-high stakes blog, grinding through the microstakes and beyond! Plugging standard leaks etc.

      Many thanks :) Grind it up!

    • Jehryn
      Joined: 15.04.2008 Posts: 678
      €0.05/€0.10 No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by

      UTG (€2.30) 23bb
      UTG+1 (€10) 100bb
      CO (€11.10) 111bb
      Jehryn (BTN) (€10) 100bb
      SB (€10) 100bb
      BB (€14.23) 142bb

      Pre-Flop: (€0.15, 6 players) Jehryn is BTN Q:club: K:spade:
      3 folds, Jehryn raises to €0.30, 1 fold, BB calls €0.20

      Flop: 3:spade: K:heart: Q:diamond: (€0.65, 2 players)
      BB checks, Jehryn bets €0.45, BB calls €0.45

      Turn: J:club: (€1.55, 2 players)
      BB checks, Jehryn bets €0.77, BB calls €0.77

      River: 4:club: (€3.09, 2 players)
      BB bets €3.09, Jehryn calls €3.09

      Final Pot: €9.27
      BB shows
      A:heart: 9:diamond:

      Jehryn wins €8.66 (net +€4.05)

      BB collects €0.00 (net -€4.61)

      NL10 :s_biggrin: :s_biggrin: :s_biggrin:

    • legand73
      Joined: 01.06.2010 Posts: 4,136
      Hey Jehryn

      I like your writing style. I hope the climb back up the ladder goes well