Recalculating pot odds with raises behind

    • Sutton
      Sutton
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2008 Posts: 56
      I think that I have made a lot of mistakes by miscalculating these situations. Rather than look at previous bets, I have calculated the odds the same as if there were no raise. For example if the pot was 20BB after a 3bet and I had to call 1BB I would think 20:1. I'm thinking now that this is not correct, (I never thought about it before).

      Based on my new thinking I figure that I have 7:1 to call the raise on the flop & 5:1 to call the 3bet on the turn. Is this correct?


      Known players:
      keine.

      0.05/0.1 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.60 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:heart: , 3:heart: . MP1 posts a blind of $0.05.
      UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 checks, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

      Flop: (6.00 SB) Q:diamond: , 9:heart: , J:heart: (6 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

      Turn: (8.00 BB) K:club: (5 players)
      SB bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

      River: (20.00 BB) 7:heart: (4 players)
      SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds, SB calls.

      Final Pot: 26.00 BB

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows a flush, ace high (Ah 3h)
      SB shows a straight, king high (9s Th)
      UTG+2 shows a straight, king high (8s Tc)

      Hero wins with a flush, ace high (Ah 3h)
  • 6 replies
    • opal99
      opal99
      Black
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,270
      no;
      you have 9:1 to call flop and 9:1 (8bb+1bb form SB) on your first turn call and then 8:1 on cold call (it's 16BB already).
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      Hi Sutton,

      opal99 is right here.

      But your thoughts are right as well. You just have to think the other way around.

      If you get 9:1 (first call on the turn) you have to consider the risk that there may be a raise behind you. This risk is given here as UTG+2 was the aggressor on the flop.
      Let's assume that you just know that MP1 will fold also as well as that MP2 will codcall. (We ignore the 3-bet and action behind it for now and just assume that SB calls as well.)

      9 BB are in the pot as you have to call the first time. +2 BB as UTG+2 raises, + 2 BB for MP2 coldcall, + 1 BB from SB. = 16 BB. Your own bets don't count. You now have to pay 2 BB --> 16:2 = 8:1.

      So if we know that there will be this action behind us we can't calculate with 9:1 but with 8:1.
      But as you can't know this in advance you have to estimate the risk of a raise.

      Your potodds as it went are: 19/3 = ~ 5,67:1

      A more realistic action would be:

      9 BB + 2 BB (UTG+2 raises) + 1 BB (SB calls all other fold). Now UTG+2 only raises 50% of the time.

      So we get:

      50% of the time we get 10,5:1 (no raise behind us but 50% of the people behind us overcall).
      50% of the time we get 12:2 = 6:1.

      10,5+6 = 15. 16,5/2 = 8,25:1 potodds.

      So if you have a close decision with just 5 outs for example then a fold is better.

      The calculation above is very theoretical as you never now what really will happen behind you.
      So in a close decision a fold may be better.


      I hope this wasn't too confusing. If so please ask. :)
    • opal99
      opal99
      Black
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,270
      wow! Very nice explanation, but it was confusing tbh ;) And you forgot implied odds in 5-handed pot!! :D

      You play 5/10, right? I believe it's possible to assume following action on that limit (i'll find out soon), but this hand was played on 0.05/0.1 - these players are unpredictable so i don't think it's neccessary to think so deeply. Assuming possible raise is fine but not important because pot is huge and there's noone folding it on this limit, so just simple calculating immediate odds is enough.

      btw: We forgot to mentioned: Hand was played very well! :)
    • Sutton
      Sutton
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2008 Posts: 56
      So based on the thinking that once I have put money into the pot it is no longer mine, my odds are still pot size:amount to call.

      @ciRith - a little confusing but I think I get it. I would agree with opal99 in that I won't be thinking this deeply. However I would rather have a deeper answer than required as it means I can understand the concept more fully even if I'm not going to apply it yet.

      @opal99 - when you say 9:1 on the flop do you mean the odds that I am getting before anyone calls the raise?

      Thank you.
    • opal99
      opal99
      Black
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,270
      Originally posted by Sutton
      @opal99 - when you say 9:1 on the flop do you mean the odds that I am getting before anyone calls the raise?
      nope; it was mistake: you have 15:1 to call on the flop (we're calcualing odds when it is your move), because:
      - there are 6 SB from preflop stage
      - +1 SB from your bet
      - +2 SB from UTG+2 raise
      - +3x2 SB from cold calls (MP1, MP2, SB)
      => pot contains 15 small bets and you're closing action so you call 15:1.

      btw: it's probably better to 3-bet flop directly, because you have 9 outs to nuts (~35% equity on the flop) so you own 35% of all bets now:
      If you bet and 4 people call your bet, you own 35% of all money, what means you invested 1 small bet, but own 1.75... But it's another more advanced strategy, so maybe not neccessary now - you'll learn it soon from more advanced articles ;)
    • Sutton
      Sutton
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2008 Posts: 56
      No worries then. I look forward to learning more in the future. For now I will just get used to what I already know.

      Thanks again.