Hi Sutton,

opal99 is right here.

But your thoughts are right as well. You just have to think the other way around.

If you get 9:1 (first call on the turn) you have to consider the risk that there may be a raise behind you. This risk is given here as UTG+2 was the aggressor on the flop.

Let's assume that you just know that MP1 will fold also as well as that MP2 will codcall. (We ignore the 3-bet and action behind it for now and just assume that SB calls as well.)

9 BB are in the pot as you have to call the first time. +2 BB as UTG+2 raises, + 2 BB for MP2 coldcall, + 1 BB from SB. = 16 BB. Your own bets don't count. You now have to pay 2 BB --> 16:2 = 8:1.

So if we know that there will be this action behind us we can't calculate with 9:1 but with 8:1.

But as you can't know this in advance you have to estimate the risk of a raise.

Your potodds as it went are: 19/3 = ~ 5,67:1

A more realistic action would be:

9 BB + 2 BB (UTG+2 raises) + 1 BB (SB calls all other fold). Now UTG+2 only raises 50% of the time.

So we get:

50% of the time we get 10,5:1 (no raise behind us but 50% of the people behind us overcall).

50% of the time we get 12:2 = 6:1.

10,5+6 = 15. 16,5/2 = 8,25:1 potodds.

So if you have a close decision with just 5 outs for example then a fold is better.

The calculation above is very theoretical as you never now what really will happen behind you.

So in a close decision a fold may be better.

I hope this wasn't too confusing. If so please ask.