is this fold right?

    • stttNNN
      Joined: 21.07.2010 Posts: 1,333
      I fold to this turn bet becouse I think I dont get the right odds and I think I will not get payed any way if I hit my flush. do u guys agree with my way to think in this spot?

      $1/$2 No Limit Holdem
      10 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by

      UTG ($120.02) 60bb
      UTG+1 ($1,188.33) 594bb
      UTG+2 ($395) 198bb
      MP1 ($411.66) 206bb
      MP2 ($385.21) 193bb
      MP3 ($192.23) 96bb
      CO ($666.48) 333bb
      stttNNN (BTN) ($196) 98bb
      SB ($148.40) 74bb
      BB ($203.02) 102bb

      Pre-Flop: ($3, 10 players) stttNNN is BTN A:club: J:club:
      1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, UTG+2 calls $6, 4 folds, stttNNN calls $6, 1 fold, BB calls $4

      Flop: 8:club: 7:spade: Q:club: ($25, 4 players)
      BB checks, UTG+1 bets $18, 1 fold, stttNNN calls $18, BB folds

      Turn: 3:diamond: ($59.48, 2 players)
      UTG+1 bets $42, stttNNN folds

      Final Pot: $17.48
      stttNNN shows
      A:club: J:club:

      UTG+1 wins $101.48 (net +$35.48)

      UTG+2 lost $6
      stttNNN lost $24
      BB lost $4
  • 4 replies
    • mesisification
      Joined: 05.08.2011 Posts: 1,465
      It's pretty close in my opinion. I would just call because our A or even J might be outs and villain has some weaker flushdraws in his range. I agree that we're not getting much value vs. good opponent if we hit our flush, he might even bet/fold some weak flushes.
    • Itsnevereasy
      Joined: 08.08.2010 Posts: 381
      Do we have fold equity if we raise turn? What about if we continue on the river after the turn raise? What if we call and miss, he bets...can we get him to fold an overpair if we raise?

      ...think outside the box. Happy New Year!
    • sirrybob
      Joined: 15.01.2012 Posts: 44
      Noooo folding is not good.
      Think of these things:
      1. sometimes villain gives up river with a draw and you win
      2. sometimes you hit an ace or jack and checkback and win
      3. sometimes you hit your flush and villain has a set/2pair/flush or continues
      bluffing a straight draw and you make more money

      So - lets look at how much money we need to make to justify calling turn.

      Turn: 3Diamond ($59.48, 2 pla
      UTG+1 bets $42, stttNNN folds

      So calling 42$ into a pot that will be 143.48$.
      Lets make some assumptions (gonna start with bad ones for you to show how not close this spot is).

      46 cards left in the deck, 9 make you a flush and 6 a pair, so 31 blank rivers.
      Here I want to treat 7,8,Q differently than rest of deck.

      So on the 23 non 7,8,Q rivers lets say you always lose for an ev of -42$

      On 7,8,Q I think villain's will bluff less, so lets say you win 10% of the time on those 8 rivers. Winning 10% of 143.48$ is 14.35, so our ev here is -27.65$

      On an ace or jack river it's hard to estimate what exactly will happen. I think assuming on ace river we win ~half the pot, and on a jack river we win 10% of the pot would be reasonable. I'm assuming you fold to a bet and checkdown and lose most of the time on a jack, and that on the ace you fold to a bet but checkdown and win.

      So for the 3 aces we win 50% of the pot for 71.74$ and an ev of 29.74$.
      For the 3 jacks we win the same as on the 7,8,Q so lose -27.65$.

      So far doesn't look good :)

      So I'm going to sum all of this up and see how much we need to make on average when hitting a flush to make up for what we lose the rest of the time.

      (23/45*(-42)+8/45*(-27.65)+3/45*(29.74)+3/45*(-27.65))= -26.24

      So if x is how much we win when we hit a flush, to breakeven on a turn call we'd need:

      So... when hitting your flush you'd need to win a pot that's bigger than 140.4 in order to profit. Given that after our call the pot is already bigger, this becomes a very easy and very profitable call.
    • stttNNN
      Joined: 21.07.2010 Posts: 1,333
      thx for comments! :)