Outspan's road to 100NL

    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196


      A QUITTER NEVER WINS AND A WINNER NEVER QUITS —Napoleon Hill

      I WILL EITHER FIND A WAY OR MAKE ONE —Hannibal


      I am starting this blog because I am completely fed up of being a mediocre NL10 poker player. This year, I will focus mostly on poker and on improving my game. My poker objective for 2014 is to win at least 5bb/100 over my last 100k hands at NL100, or move up to NL200+. Right now, I am breakeven at NL10. Whether or not I will achieve my goal, I will be relentless and keep trying again and again, no matter how tough it gets.

      Ever since I read Napoleon Hill's Think and Grow Rich a few weeks ago, something switched inside my mind. I used to "understand" intellectually that being persistent was important. Now, after reading that book, I know what it takes to create success in my life because I understand things on a much deeper level - not just mentally but emotionally. That teaching is so important that I am re-reading a chapter a day for the rest of the year.

      I should say a couple things about myself. I'm 26, I live in Italy, I studied software engineering but I am currently working as a science and technology journalist because it is one of my passions and the job has an extremely flexible schedule.

      This blog will document my journey. It will be interesting to see how my mentality evolves as the year goes by, and certainly it will be fun for me to look back at this in the future once I have reached my goal.

      My goals for 2014:
      :diamond: Move to Poland or Thailand
      :diamond: Beat NL100 by at least 5bb/100 over 100k hands
      :diamond: Reach peak physical condition (+5cm chest, +3cm biceps, -3cm waist or 6pack showing, +3cm thigh)
      :diamond: Get a girlfriend (or very markedly improve my social skills)
      :diamond: Master the tantra technique for multiple male orgasms


      (If that last goal seems weird to you, know that it has to do with saving and redirecting my energy toward my goals. I've been learning the technique through yoga and meditation over the past few months but for now I can only make it work some of the time)

      I am setting things up so that everything is broken down into 90-day, monthly and weekly goals.

      I will update this blog at least once a week - sometimes a lot more.

      Welcome :)
  • 45 replies
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,923
      Good luck outspan!
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      Originally posted by HollyMichelle
      Good luck outspan!
      1/1/2014:

      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $35.85 (358.5 bb)
      SB: $17.39 (173.9 bb)
      BB: $18.31 (183.1 bb)
      UTG: $15.39 (153.9 bb)
      Hero (MP): $11.05 (110.5 bb)
      CO: $10.15 (101.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with Q K
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.65) J T 9 (2 players)
      BB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.80, BB calls $0.50

      Turn: ($2.25) 3 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

      River: ($4.75) 9 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.10, BB folds

      Results:
      $4.75 pot ($0.26 rake)
      Final Board: J T 9 3 9
      BB mucked and lost (-$2.35 net)
      Hero mucked Q K and won $4.49 ($2.14 net)



      3/1/2014:

      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $10 (100 bb)
      Hero (SB): $10.10 (101 bb)
      BB: $38.35 (383.5 bb)
      UTG: $18.62 (186.2 bb)
      MP: $14.23 (142.3 bb)
      CO: $7.34 (73.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 8
      UTG raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($0.70) 7 8 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.30, UTG raises to $0.80, Hero raises to $1.85, UTG folds

      Results:
      $2.30 pot ($0.12 rake)
      Final Board: 7 8 8
      Hero mucked 8 8 and won $2.18 ($1.08 net)
      UTG mucked and lost (-$1.10 net)



      4/1/2014:

      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $7.85 (78.5 bb)
      SB: $7.65 (76.5 bb)
      Hero (BB): $11.17 (111.7 bb)
      UTG: $21.16 (211.6 bb)
      MP: $6.93 (69.3 bb)
      CO: $10.99 (109.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q J
      UTG folds, MP calls $0.10, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $0.60, MP calls $0.50, SB folds

      Flop: ($1.30) A T 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.95, MP calls $0.95

      Turn: ($3.20) 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.51, MP calls $1.51

      River: ($6.22) K (2 players)
      Hero bets $4, MP calls $3.87 and is all-in

      Results:
      $13.96 pot ($0.76 rake)
      Final Board: A T 5 3 K
      Hero showed Q J and won $13.20 ($6.27 net)
      MP mucked T T and lost (-$6.93 net)


      Stick around, will ya :D
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      In this post I'm analyzing in detail the cbet success % on various board textures, which is my theory objective for the week. Warning: long post. Comments and observations welcome!

      OVERVIEW:



      Cbetting seems to be about equally as successful regardless of preflop action, which is a little surprising. It's quite successful when isolating limpers too.

      ANALYSIS BY HIGH CARD:

      A-high flop:



      As expected the cbet is more successful here than usual, even when isolating limpers (whose limp/call range is sometimes Ax heavy).

      K-high flop:



      Fold equity is about the same. Villains seem to fold quite often after calling my 3bet.

      Q-high flop:



      FE decreases sensibly, particularly in 3bet pots

      J-high flop:



      FE keeps dropping in 3bet pots

      T-, 9-, 8-, 7-, 6-high flops:











      Percentages don't seem to drop below 40%.

      ANALYSIS BY BOARD TEXTURE

      Rainbow flop:



      Two-tone flop:



      Monotone flop:



      As expected I have a bunch of FE on rainbow flops, less on two-tone, which have possible FDs, and a bunch on monotone flops, which I did not expect (I have low sample size though). One explanation for monotone boards might be that those boards look scary and it's hard for villain to call without a card of the right color.

      Flop with no connected cards:



      Flop with connected cards:



      As expected, more FE on unconnected flops

      Paired flop:



      Unpaired flop:



      As expected, more FE on paired flops.

      WORST CASE SCENARIOS

      Flop 2-tone, connected and unpaired:



      Flop 2-tone, connected, unpaired and Q-high:



      Flop 2-tone, T-high:



      CONCLUSIONS

      I confirmed that A- and K-high and paired flops are the ones with the post FE. Monotone flops might be a good spot too, but I need more samples to confirm. On a lesser measure, unconnected flops also have decent FE.

      I assumed that cbet success % would drop below 30 in the worst case scenarios, but it's weird to note how they never seem to drop below 40 pretty much no matter what. Which means that cbetting 100% vs unknown is probably +EV on any board (I did not expect this).

      My flop cbet is 67, I might be able to increase it slightly using these observations since villains seem to fold so often.


      Comments/observations? :)
    • Lazza61
      Lazza61
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 23.03.2011 Posts: 9,209
      Hey outspan,

      That's quite an analysis. My head is still spinning. :D

      A bit too much for my micro stakes brain to handle lol, but I'm sure there will be plenty who will comment on it and find it useful.

      Nice work

      Laz
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      Originally posted by Lazza61
      Hey outspan,

      That's quite an analysis. My head is still spinning. :D

      A bit too much for my micro stakes brain to handle lol, but I'm sure there will be plenty who will comment on it and find it useful.

      Nice work

      Laz
      Thanks lol :D

      I've posted it in the NL forum too. I guess I can't expect lots of comments here, I don't really know anybody in the English community (my main blog is on pokerstrategy.IT).
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      In this post I'm gathering 50 sample hands (30 facing unopened or limpers from the 5 positions, 20 in 3bet pots) on cbet, so that I have a good reference for the most common situations whenever I have a doubt.

      In the long term I want to create a list of topics (cbet, 3bet pots, cold calling etc), each with a detailed DB analysis and sample hands. Then I'll make a giant post that links to all of those and will act as my strategy guide.

      CBET IN UNOPENED POTS

      From BU

      BU cbet (1/6) - QJo
      BU cbet (2/6) - 88
      BU cbet (3/6) Q5s
      BU cbet (4/6) - 66
      BU cbet (5/6) - TT
      BU cbet (6/6) - K7s

      From CO

      CO cbet (1/6) - AQo
      CO cbet (2/6) - AJo
      CO cbet (3/6) - 78s
      CO cbet (4/6) - A4s
      CO cbet (5/6) - T9o
      CO cbet (6/6) - 88

      From MP

      MP cbet (1/6) - 55
      MP cbet (2/6) - 77
      MP cbet (3/6) - 66
      MP cbet (4/6) - KK
      MP cbet (5/6) - ATo
      MP cbet (6/6) - KQo

      From UTG

      UTG cbet (1/6) - ATs
      UTG cbet (2/6) - AJo
      UTG cbet (3/6) - AKo
      UTG cbet (4/6) - AJs
      UTG cbet (5/6) - KK
      UTG cbet (6/6) - 88

      From SB

      SB cbet (1/6) - JJ
      SB cbet (2/6) - K9o
      SB cbet (3/6) - A3o
      SB cbet (4/6) - ATo
      SB cbet (5/6) - A9o
      SB cbet (6/6) - KTs

      CBET IN 3BET POTS

      IP

      Cbet in 3B pot IP (1/10) - QQ
      Cbet in 3B pot IP (2/10) - ATo
      Cbet in 3B pot IP (3/10) - KQo
      Cbet in 3B pot IP (4/10) - TT
      Cbet in 3B pot IP (5/10) - AQo
      Cbet in 3B pot IP (6/10) - AQo
      Cbet in 3B pot IP (7/10) - AKo
      Cbet in 3B pot IP (8/10) - ATo
      Cbet in 3B pot IP (9/10) - AKo
      Cbet in 3B pot IP (10/10) - AQs

      OOP

      Cbet in 3B pot OOP (1/10) - AKo
      Cbet in 3B pot OOP (2/10) - TT
      Cbet in 3B pot OOP (3/10) - ATo
      Cbet in 3B pot OOP (4/10) - QQ
      Cbet in 3B pot OOP (5/10) - AKo
      Cbet in 3B pot OOP (6/10) - AKo
      Cbet in 3B pot OOP (7/10) - AKs
      Cbet in 3B pot OOP (8/10) - JJ
      Cbet in 3B pot OOP (9/10) - ATo
      Cbet in 3B pot OOP (10/10) - KK
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      Ever since I went from 4x zoom to 2x at NL10 yesterday, I've been really, really satisfied with my play. I'm running hot too which doesn't hurt ;)



      It was an ego thing for me, I wanted to tell myself that I could make double the money. But the truth is that I'm still learning so many concepts that if I play 4x there is absolutely no way that I can understand them fully. Or take proper notes. I ran some huge bluffs and today was just one of those days where every single play I made worked. There's no way I would have tried those plays if I had 4x'd.

      Plus since I only will play 2x, I can also mix in some MTTs which I love!

      I'm also switching my HUD stats from AF to agg%, which is a lot more intuitive to understand.
    • holmeboy
      holmeboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      [x] following

      Looks like it'll be a really nice blog. Gl outspan
    • Ramble
      Ramble
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      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 1,421
      Very interesting goals and stats review/analysis... added blog to favourites.
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      TYTY holmeboy and Ramble. Lots of great stuff to come :s_love: :s_love: :s_love:
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      Leatherass's materials

      One of the most important things that I learned from Think and Grow Rich is that I have to model the way successful people think.

      I have diamond status right now because of a combination of double SPs last month and winning a status upgrade as part of an initiative in the Italian pokerstrategy community.

      Obviously I have no use for diamond strategy content, but I was extremely pleased to see that Dusty Schimdt has a diamond video series on his own mental attitute, called "Achieving the top end of your range." I watched it and really loved it, took a lot of lessons from it in terms of his psychology.

      Other really useful concepts of his are that of treating poker like a business. Can't go into too much detail here. But I'm buying his book with the same name. I found myself nodding all the time during the entire two videos so that's a good sign I should get the book lol.

      Charity

      One of the things that he mentioned in passing was something to the effect of: "after all, we're poker players, not doctors or teachers, and we'll have to make peace with the fact that our profession will never be as accepted as that of a doctor or a teacher."

      This made me realize that one reason that I've been playing poker on and off over the past few years was that it is extremely important to me to have a positive impact on the world, and poker, while it improved my psychology and made me stronger, by itself doesn't really do anything in that sense. So I kept going back to my normal job.

      For that reason, after thinking it through for an entire day, I've decided that I will donate 7.5% of my yearly winnings to charity. This may sound counterintuitive, but when you think about it, it's a win/win if it allows me to increase my volume, persistence and hunger for improving by at least 1-100/(100-7.5) = 8.1%. Personally, I think it will easily double all of those, so it's a no-brainer, and it makes poker exactly in line with my long-term goals.

      Changing mentality

      I don't know what it was, possibly it was the thought of finally being able to do something that truly reflects my values in this way, but soon after making that decision I have been thinking about poker basically non-stop. I have been posting hands, strategizing on how to organize my day and week to maximize learning and playing, and feeling extremely happy when I finally got to play. The words that came to my mind were, "I feel privileged to be playing poker." I kinda did a double take there :D but I really am extraordinarily motivated right now.
    • Ramble
      Ramble
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 1,421
      Originally posted by outspan
      Charity
      For that reason, after thinking it through for an entire day, I've decided that I will donate 7.5% of my yearly winnings to charity.
      That's very cool man - for many years now I have committed to donate 1% of my gross salary to charity every year. It's not much, but that was kind of the point for me - almost anyone can absorb a 1% loss quite easily (heck, in poker I lose about 3% and I'm still playin... :D ), but I feel more than 1% happier that I am contributing to help those who are struggling in some way.
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      Something I read today and that I want to remember: as Jared Tendler says,

      Tilt doesn't cause mistakes, it reveals them

      I'm often tilting after making mistakes and realizing that I did. So actually, tilt is extremely useful. It tells me what I need to work on.

      On a similar note, my objective cannot be to become an emotionless robot while playing. Nor to be excessively emotional. I have to aim for the "middle way" that corresponds to peak performance.

      Also, today I happened to watch this video:



      It's a great talk, and also on a very practical note, substitute "suffering" with "tilt" and I challenge you to tilt while listening to this :P

      I almost tilted today when I realized I insta folded the river when I should have insta called (I misread the board). The lesson I learned from this mistake:

      whenever I'm on the river, I must always take 3 deep breaths before taking a decision.
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      Originally posted by Ramble
      Originally posted by outspan
      Charity
      For that reason, after thinking it through for an entire day, I've decided that I will donate 7.5% of my yearly winnings to charity.
      That's very cool man - for many years now I have committed to donate 1% of my gross salary to charity every year. It's not much, but that was kind of the point for me - almost anyone can absorb a 1% loss quite easily (heck, in poker I lose about 3% and I'm still playin... :D ), but I feel more than 1% happier that I am contributing to help those who are struggling in some way.
      That's great! Yeah it has great life ROI.

      Plus, think of all the chicks we can get :s_biggrin: :s_biggrin:
    • H4nG0v3R91
      H4nG0v3R91
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      Joined: 23.04.2013 Posts: 1,060
      Ma una spammata pure qua te la devo fare! ahaha :D

      Grande Outspan!
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      Originally posted by H4nG0v3R91
      Ma una spammata pure qua te la devo fare! ahaha :D

      Grande Outspan!


      :)
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
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      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      I saw this and thought of you. Be careful what you wish for, but good luck anyway.

    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      Originally posted by jbpatzer
      I saw this and thought of you. Be careful what you wish for, but good luck anyway.
    • outspan
      outspan
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.02.2010 Posts: 1,196
      Short but important addendum to my previous post:

      ANALYSIS BY POSITION

      IP:



      OOP:



      ANALYSIS BY SIZING

      <= 1/2 pot:



      >= 1/2 pot:



      I'd like to analize the success % when a blind who folds 75% to steal decides to defend (I assume the cbet won't get through most of the time because they have a strong range). However I'm not sure how to do that analysis on HEM.