I am following the guide am down big.

    • NoGains
      NoGains
      Basic
      Joined: 26.12.2013 Posts: 5
      Have been playing around 200 0.5Sng on Pokerstars and i am following the guide on how to play SnG but am down 20 of 30 dollars.

      Can i draw some conclusions yet? I really think i can..
  • 9 replies
    • maythany
      maythany
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2011 Posts: 1,189
      small sample size man.

      I got 110 sng games right now and down 11 buy-ins.

      My sample is too small to conclude anything just yet, but at 5,000 games you'll have a better idea of everything.

      Take Care,

      Maythany
    • NoGains
      NoGains
      Basic
      Joined: 26.12.2013 Posts: 5
      Ok so you really need to grind like 5k games on 0.5sng to do a profit? Dont that seems a little like thos click adds and get paided acitivites? I meet fishes all the time and i get outdrawn all the time.

      I get this feeling that poker is less profitable than travel to india and gathering trash.
      edit: and yes i am following the guide, only exceptions i do if some guy is a total fish, if holdem manager says he is in 50% i get a looser range, but even then i lose. Today i was up against a 70% fish on the finaltable and when i finally got him with AJ did he have AQ
    • pauln
      pauln
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.03.2010 Posts: 191
      Lets see,

      You're playing $0.50 on pokerstars? The 45, 90, 180 or 360 man games? Are you playing regular or turbo games?

      I don't play on pokerstars but as far as I'm aware there are no $0.50 9 man games.

      The more people in the tournament the higher variance (this is why live MTT players may never have a very accurate idea of how good they are).

      For 9 man SNGs I think you should start to get an idea (note an idea not an accurate number) after 1-2k games.

      Lets assume you're playing 9 man games, just for fun I decided to run some numbers. A 10% ROI player after 200 games has 95% confidence of being between -10% and 31% ROI. After 2000 games he has 95% confidence of being between 3% - 17% ROI.

      Lets take your ROI after 200 games and assume you're playing 45 man SNG. You have a 95% confidence of being between -51% and 16% ROI

      Hopefully this gives you an idea of how high variance is (especially in bigger SNGs).
    • NoGains
      NoGains
      Basic
      Joined: 26.12.2013 Posts: 5
      I am playing 90 SNG 0.5 ye. I was playing 2.5 180 for a year ago and i gathered some 100 bucks over some months but then i went on tilt and i decided to quit.
      Now i wanted to start as the guide on pokerstrategy says and i am down. Feels bad

      Can you explain what you estimation with 95%?
    • pauln
      pauln
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.03.2010 Posts: 191
      Okay playing 90 mans and with the info you gave me (which gives you -20% ROI over 200 games). This is what you know.

      You have 95% confidence of being between -56% and 22% ROI
      You have a 99.7% confidence of being between -71% - 45% ROI

      The 95% and 99.7% confidence means that in the 10,000 simulations I ran of your 200 game streak, these were the worst and best case scenarios.

      You can never achieve 100% confidence (knowing your ROI as a fact) but 99.7% is usually close enough. Hopefully that makes sense?

      A 10% ROI player after 10K 90 mans.. has a 95% confidence that he's between 3% and 17% ROI

      If you don't like the amount of variance in 90 mans (I don't blame you), play 9 man SNGs or even better play Double or Nothings. You'll still need to play a couple of thousand games to get an idea of where you are but it won't be as swingy. In general you've got be less results orientated (easier said than done). If you have an issue with this and an issue with tilt (almost everyone does) I suggest picking up a copy of The Mental Game of Poker by Jared Tendler
    • NoGains
      NoGains
      Basic
      Joined: 26.12.2013 Posts: 5
      I just won my first tournament, i have some 2 2places and a lot of finaltables but now i won.
      So i am like 3 dollars + for the day, but still down like 12 dollars totally.

      I will now read your posts and quit for the day.
    • NoGains
      NoGains
      Basic
      Joined: 26.12.2013 Posts: 5
      I have VP$IP at 12.7
      PFR 8.9
      And postflop agg at 14.6

      Do you think my states are solid or can i change something?
    • pauln
      pauln
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.03.2010 Posts: 191
      I'm a 9 man SNG player so my thoughts on 90 mans won't be worth that much.

      12/9 looks okay, maybe a bit tight. Hopefully playing wider in late position and tighter in early position..
      If 14.6 is aggression factor, you're too aggressive. If 14.6 is aggression % you're too passive.

      I suggest you mark/save hands you're not sure with and post them in the hand review forums, that tends to be the best way to progress.
    • maythany
      maythany
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2011 Posts: 1,189
      Originally posted by NoGains
      Ok so you really need to grind like 5k games on 0.5sng to do a profit? Dont that seems a little like thos click adds and get paided acitivites? I meet fishes all the time and i get outdrawn all the time.

      I get this feeling that poker is less profitable than travel to india and gathering trash.
      edit: and yes i am following the guide, only exceptions i do if some guy is a total fish, if holdem manager says he is in 50% i get a looser range, but even then i lose. Today i was up against a 70% fish on the finaltable and when i finally got him with AJ did he have AQ
      Those click ads and get paid activities you see are scams, what I am telling you isn't.

      I did a variance calculation for your game format and this is what I got.

      200 Games:




      5000 Games:


      You can check for yourself if you don't believe me. If we look at those 200 games, a little under half of those samples shown is in the negative and if we look at the 5000 game sample size, only 1 sample is in the negative, 1 in BE and the rest positive. I ran both sample sizes 1000 times to ensure its validity.


      And if you do the same calculation again on the program, you will notice that the results are never the same. This goes to show how much variance there is in poker. IMO poker is 5% skill 10% luck and 85% hard work.

      Hope I helped you in some way.

      Take Care,

      Maythany