[NL2-NL10] NL50 KQo decision versus UTG limp 3better.

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
      LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

      Hero (CO): $9.25
      BTN: $71.72
      SB: $94.81
      BB: $10
      UTG: $45.79
      UTG+1: $48.80
      MP1: $47.40
      MP2: $9.50

      Pre-Flop: Q:spade: K:diamond: dealt to Hero (CO)
      UTG calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 3 folds, UTG raises to $11, Hero calls $6.25 and is All-In

      $19.25 Pot ($3.21 Rake)

      i want to examine the situation of the guy who limps UTG and then 3bets all his hands. Low pfr, high vpip I think i have to expand his range but by how much? I think this situation could be a good example of how much we can expand his range.

      Now;

      Utg has 20/2. i have almost 300 hands on him. No 3bet% stat for some reason so I'm extremely dubious about this play. In fact i think it could easily be -ev. Utg's other stats are fishy (low W$@SD, quite high WTS, quite high AF) which tipped me in favour of calling here. I think the rake plays a big part in making this -ev.

      What range do you think is applicable in this situation. I think he could well be 3betting a lot of hands here but what range will he do that with?

      "Normal" AK+ JJ+ range i am screwed here.

      AQ+ 88+ or wider, this could mean my move was correct. If he say plays 9% of his limped hands versus a raise then he may well 3bet 6%, which is the range in question.

      Sorry if i talked too much, I wouldn't have had to make this decision with a 5BB raise but i made it 6BB instead :p (deadmoney or something)
  • 4 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Above all: Make a note of these guys since your reads become more valuable than 20/2 for example (Limp/Raise = limp thus VPIP)

      Pot odds
      $1.5+$9.25+$30)x0.95 :: $6.25
      14)x0.95 :: $6.25
      13.3 :: $6.25
      2.12:1
      =
      31.9%

      With KQo against a 3% range, you need 25.3% to be +EV
      against a 4.7% (TT+,AQ+) range, you need 27.6
      against you need 7.5% (99+,AJ+,KQ+) you need 33.8%

      So only when you give him a 7% range, you are +EV but then from a realistic point of view: I would give him a 4.7% range or even worser for you: JJ+, AK

      Therefore I just fold KQ, it is a mediocre holding after all ;)
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      I'm going to expand on this a bit more. Imagining we have some reads on the opponent.

      Btw, thanks for putting the calculations in Gerv. Before i always tried to post the information i worked out in my head whilst playing the hand, but from now on I'll put all the more precise calculations into the posts.

      Now for my sample situations for reads on the opponent (All other factors remain constant, in both his early vpip is 10);

      a) In this situation, we know that the opponent likes to play his absolute monsters passively and raise the hands which are not so good. Lets estimate his ranges;

      Limp/3bet - 4.5% of his hands. We need 31.9% equity so we can call with KQs+ and 88+ (pokerstove)

      Raise - 4.5% to 6.5% of his hands. We can 3bet AK+ and many pocket pairs.

      Limp/Call or Limp/Fold - 6.5% to 10% of his hands. We are often strong enough to cbet flop all-in.


      b) In this situation, we have a factor that may tip the odds in our favour. We have a read that the opponent likes to raise his absolute monsters and 3bet a loose range than this. Let us give him a sample range;

      Raise - 2% of hands - We may well only want to 3bet KK+ But QQ+ may be feasable also.

      Limp/3bet - 2% to 6.5% of hands - Now we have 36.6% equity against this range so we can call! Range;




      Limp/Call - Again we likely have a strong enough hand to cbet push flop.


      Hope that made sense. Two possible situations where reads are important. Note that these are both different to the original sample hand were we do not thinkg about him raising in UTG!

      edit; also please take into account that i still often like a fold with KQ. I won't necessarily be calling it.
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      Hi daphunk,

      I would call it here make a note and then evaluate later situations, you get great odds. Many people do this with any limped pocket.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Cheers ysessa, i like the sound of that plan.