SSS, reducing the swing

    • hammiemon85
      hammiemon85
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      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 116
      I've played about 26k hands at NL10 now in Full Tilt and i notice that my game is really swingy. Every big upswing will definitely come with a big downswing. I just need to find a way to keep my money when i win and not lose it all back during the downswings.

      Without the rakeback and the bonuses, my account would probably be just slightly -ve at the moment. Thankfully, it's still hovering around $100 with them.

      Is there anyway i can adjust the strategy to play with less variance? Should i maybe try moving up to nl25 as the rake is double at nl10 and could be eating into my profits in a big way?
  • 17 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi hammiemon85,

      Could you tell us abit more about yourself and your playing style? You played 26k hands so can you show the Analysis/Stats of them?

      ShortStacked already decreases your downswing in amount of bigblinds due the amount of money you bring on the tables ;)

      Moving up a limit will definitly not stop variance/downswings! It only results in a higher chance % to go broke.

      Please post your Stats/Analysis here so we can have a look at that
      - Gerv
    • hammiemon85
      hammiemon85
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      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 116
      Here are some general stats:

      Hands - 26910
      Won - $25.05
      bb/100 - 0.93
      VPIP - 7.8%
      PFR - 6.9%
      3-bet - 3.8%
      WTSF - 36.9%
      W$SD - 50%
      Agg - 4.49
      Agg% - 22.5%
    • hammiemon85
      hammiemon85
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      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 116


      The all in winnings are good, but the non all in winnings are horrible (rake perhaps?)
    • Gerv
      Gerv
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by hammiemon85


      The all in winnings are good, but the non all in winnings are horrible (rake perhaps?)
      Could be but I only would recommend moving up if you have 25 BI or more.

      I dont see any flaws in your stats so thats ok.
    • davidangel
      davidangel
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      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 456
      I will advise you to stay at NL10 until you have 30BI for NL25. Keep grinding, you only have $50 to go. I ground out NL10 for a month until the roll hit $140 and I was confident I could move up at 28BI
      At NL25 the chum pool is about the same and you make more per hand due to less rake. However, the variance is the same, the money is just larger so be sure you are mentally prepared.
      NL10 -15BI swing = $30
      NL25 -15BI swing = $75
      EG... myself I was dominating SSS NL10/NL25, then SnG $1, $2, and finally I can +ev $5 tables easily and my roll shot up to $300. Abit of variance on the $10 tables and I found out I need to re-read the Dont-go-on-tilt articles again.
      Was I tilting? I think so, I mean, the first hand, in the bliinds I get QQ... someone raises 5xBB from MP, so I reraise to 15BB and get called. I am oop and a K shows on a dry board... I think, does he have AK? Why did he not reraise all-in preflop? Think about how far I will go starting out with a double stack! (greed) I am PFA and conti-bet = half my stack, so I go all-in and am called by AJo... I think you know what happened on the turn, the Acehole got me! Perhaps I made a mistake, as I would often give up the hand with overcards, or check and look for weakness, but I think I was looking at the prize pool rather than my cards. So there are many different ways to go on tilt, getting mad and throwing your mouse across the room is only one way :D
      These are my thoughts for you, I hope you do well.
    • hammiemon85
      hammiemon85
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      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 116
      it's just getting frustrating, i've gotten close to $150 multiple times, but then the big downswing (15-20 stacks) hits, and i gotta start all over again
    • Gerv
      Gerv
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by hammiemon85
      the big downswing (15-20 stacks) hits
      Then you are doing something clearly wrong to lose 400bb in x days =|
    • hammiemon85
      hammiemon85
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      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 116
      well its not straight down, and according to the all in EV in my latest swing which is still going, im putting my money in good overall.

      its usually not straight down too, i'll go 12-13BI down, recover 4-5 then go down again.

      but i'd love to find out if im doing something really wrong. I stick to the basic SHC 80% of the time, but playing a bit looser at LP to make some blind steals. I also just occasionally limp small pairs at MP/LP/Blinds when there are many limpers into the pot already.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
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      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by hammiemon85

      Should i maybe try moving up to nl25 as the rake is double at nl10 and could be eating into my profits in a big way?

      Not could but is. PS should really be advising against playing with 10% rake in ANY game. I imagine that the deal they have with FT disallows them from doing this.

      There have been many posts about NL10 and the rake at FT but the message has never really gotten across. DO NOT PLAY IN THESE GAMES IF YOU LIKE MONEY. The amount extra that it costs to play SSS in 10% rake games as opposed to 5% is of the order of 2.5PTBB/100. ie. The win-rate of a good player. It is even more than 2.5 ptbb/100 if you play BSS.

      Why does nobody ever listen?
    • Velak
      Velak
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      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 542
      Nunki could not possibly be more correct. I tell people ALL the time what a mistake this is, and even attempt to show them the proof with some basic math.. people's eyes just glaze over and they say "well, at least I'm getting rakeback".

      Even with rakeback, you're losing entirely too much money on FT NL10 tables. Don't play on FT NL10 tables. Ever. Never. If you have to play on NL10 due to your roll, it would be better to find another site to play, and move to NL25 when you are properly rolled for it.
    • sickrick01
      sickrick01
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      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 69
      dont limp when you play SSS. you raise, go all in or fold your hand!

      limping pocket pairs as a short stack is-EV!!

      because if you hit a set you can´t get enough money from the other players, that would compensate the times you dont hit.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
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      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Originally posted by sickrick01
      limping pocket pairs as a short stack is-EV!!
      Check the bronze SHC. If you have 3+ limpers, it's ok to call in late position/blinds. You can even call with a suited ace if there are more than 4 limpers :)
    • hammiemon85
      hammiemon85
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      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 116
      this is just an adjustment i'm making for set value.

      If i can get 2-3 of my opponents to come along when i hit a set, this play is definitely +EV. But i only make this play when i'm in SB with a few limpers or when there are many limpers.

      I will definitely check/fold my cards if the set doesn't come.
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
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      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      Originally posted by Velak
      Nunki could not possibly be more correct. I tell people ALL the time what a mistake this is, and even attempt to show them the proof with some basic math.. people's eyes just glaze over and they say "well, at least I'm getting rakeback".

      Even with rakeback, you're losing entirely too much money on FT NL10 tables. Don't play on FT NL10 tables. Ever. Never. If you have to play on NL10 due to your roll, it would be better to find another site to play, and move to NL25 when you are properly rolled for it.
      #2

      play sit&go , nl 10 is too crappy for shortstacking, nl 25 is swingy as every limit but at least you are not getting crushed by 10% rakes.
    • hammiemon85
      hammiemon85
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      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 116
      i've taken my money out of full tilt and moved to everest poker for now. I still prefer the interface at ftp though, hopefully with the nice bonuses at everest, i'll be able to quickly build up my roll and move back to ftp to continue at nl25
    • Nunki
      Nunki
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      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by hammiemon85
      i've taken my money out of full tilt and moved to everest poker for now. I still prefer the interface at ftp though, hopefully with the nice bonuses at everest, i'll be able to quickly build up my roll and move back to ftp to continue at nl25
      Sounds better than being "a hamster in a wheel " at FT's NL10 tables.
      Good Luck.
    • hammiemon85
      hammiemon85
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      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 116
      after playing about 2.2k hands in Everest, i can see what you guys mean by the huge -EV effect of the 10% rake on NL10 in FTP. My non-showdown winnings are so much better in Everest than on FTP. That NL10 game in FTP is truly a scam.