TT pre-flop against shortstack shove and caller

    • Defense14
      Defense14
      Basic
      Joined: 22.01.2014 Posts: 3
      2/5 NL, $750 stack, hero has TT UTG, raise to $20, UTG+1 who is a spew monster shoves for $200 total (against him alone this is a snap call, as he could easily be doing this with A8s+, KQ, KJ or any pair. He wants to go home), folds around to cut-off (covers hero) who tanks for about a minute and then says call. He is definitely aware that the UTG+1 has been spewing and would definitely lighten his calling ranges here, but could easily be trapping. Folds around to hero. $420 in the pot, $175 to see a flop and $725 left in stack. What do we do here?
  • 6 replies
    • FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      FFRRAANNKKIIEE
      Silver
      Joined: 30.12.2010 Posts: 3,107
      I fold
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,086
      Clear fold. The CO is not going in here with 99 or A9s (which would help a lot). He might do it with AQ or JJ figuring you will fold a lot and that UTG + 1 is in with a weak hand. This doesn't help you much. With a 50bb stack, then perhaps...
    • badgerer
      badgerer
      Silver
      Joined: 29.03.2010 Posts: 555
      CO's range looks strong. what kind of player are they?

      i hate calling. postflop you'll be oop playing guessing games in a dry sidepot.

      if you shove CO almost never folds better. what hands do you expect them to call that you can beat? not many, and you're probably flipping if they do make the call.

      i like folding. save your chips for a better spot.

      having said that, my inner gus wants me to shove so much.
    • getdotacom
      getdotacom
      Black
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 607
      I assume this is 2/5 live game, right ? I'd snapfold JJ, QQ is a border IMO and I'd fold it as well in most cases, AK is super ez fold too.
    • Defense14
      Defense14
      Basic
      Joined: 22.01.2014 Posts: 3
      I'm surprised nobody has approached this situation running equity numbers.

      The cut-off caller was a loud, fat, annoying jokester of a 60 year-old man. Against the obvious spew of the UTG+1, a very reasonable calling range for him would be 99+, AQo+. I sincerely think he is NEVER throwing any of those hands away and honestly, to do so, would be a huge mistake against UTG+1. 88 and AJs would be very hard to fold, but let's be conservative and assume he folds them.

      TT has 38.3% equity against a hand range of TT+, AQ+, TT has 44.3% equity against a hand range of 99+, AQo+, and TT has 47.9% equity against a hand range that also includes 88 and AJs. This is the equity WHEN called. If you ship, a lot of the time you WON'T be called, and there is already $425 in the pot and you'll be heads-up vs. the fish.

      If you ship, yes, you risk running into the top of his range when he smooth calls with AA, KK, QQ, but a shove over the top of his call stands an extremely good chance of folding out AQ, 99, the other TT and even JJ sometimes (let's assume 50% of the time). Basically, if you shove over top, and are called, you're more than likely fucked, except for the times when he calls with AK and you're racing.

      But . . . this is not a situation like others where he is guaranteed to be at the tippy top of his range.

      Would anyone argue that he would fold 99 or AQo against a maniacs shove? If you think so, then the decision becomes more skewed towards folding.

      But, essentially you're risking $750 to get heads up against the fish for a pot of $425. If called, the pot balloons to $1700. You're risking $750 to win $1700 WHEN called. That means IF you expect him to call EVERY time, which he won't, you need 44% equity against his calling range. While TT certainly has that much equity against the range he would call the maniac's shove with, the problem I'm seeing is that if we ship here, when called, we're fucked. So maybe that $750 to win $1700 is not so good a price . . . .

      I just don't know. On the one hand, I feel like he folds enough to warrant the shove, on the other hand, things are so ugly when we get called . . .
    • YohanN7
      YohanN7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2009 Posts: 4,086
      You have a point, but you EV calculations seem wrong. The UTG + 1 has shoved, so there is only a yet-so-far empty side pot to contest heads up against the CO. This side pot gives you 1:1 while the main pot gives 2:1. There is no way you are getting 1700 to 750.